HOUTexans
-
31
TBD
Qualcomm Stadium
70°F
10 mph
28
LACChargers
-
TBD
Qualcomm Stadium
70°F
10 mph
Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Texans
7
0
7
11
25
Chargers
7
14
7
0
28
Spread
+6
Total
OVER
44
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
449
263
Total Plays
75
51
Yards / Play
6.0
5.2
EPA / Play
+0.13
+0.07
Passing Yards
329
183
Comp/Att
34/45(76%)
14/29(48%)
Yards / Pass
7.3
6.3
EPA / Pass
+0.23
+0.07
Rushing Yards
120
80
Rush Attempts
28
20
Yards / Rush
4.3
4.0
EPA / Rush
-0.08
-0.03
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
26
14
Passing 1st downs
19
11
Rushing 1st downs
5
2
Penalty 1st downs
2
1
3rd Down %
46%
50%
3rd Down Conversions
6
7
3rd Down Attempts
13
14
Red Zone %
100%
100%
Red Zone Conversions
3
4
Red Zone Attempts
3
4
Negative Plays
Turnovers
1
1
Interceptions
1
1
Fumbles
0
0
Turnover EPA
-4.57
-7.15
Sacks
2
2
Sack Yards
-17
-12
Sack EPA
-3.01
-3.93
Penalties
7
7
Penalty Yards
73
55
Penalty EPA
-7.68
-13.58
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
HOUTexansFavored
Opening
-3.0
Current
-6.0
Model
-3.0
Win Probability
Market69.8%
Model59.9%
Spread Pick
Chargers+6.0
Expected Value
+18.4%
Cover Probability
60.8%
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
-1
Home nfelo
1,479
Away nfelo
1,555
Home Field
+84.9
Base HFA
+62.5
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
--
Time Adj
+22.4
Net QB Adjustment
-9.4
Home QB Adjustment
-7.1
Away QB Adjustment
+2.3
Market Regression
-33.4
Final Difference
-69.4
Model Spread
+3.0
Quarterbacks
M. Schaub
Proj. Value
-1.0
Team Elo Adj
+2.3
P. Rivers
Proj. Value
+0.5
Team Elo Adj
-7.1
Team Matchup Ranks
Texans Offense vs Chargers Defense
Total
Points / Game
31
9
Yards / Game
13
23
Passing Yards / Game
6
20
Rushing Yards / Game
20
14
EPA
EPA / Play
30
30
EPA / Pass
29
22
EPA / Rush
22
30
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
3
28
Interceptions / Game
28
24
Fumbles / Game
13
19
Turnover EPA / Game
3
5
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
22
21
4th Down Efficiency
26
15
RZ Efficiency
26
24
Chargers Offense vs Texans Defense
Total
Points / Game
14
25
Yards / Game
8
6
Passing Yards / Game
2
10
Rushing Yards / Game
13
23
EPA
EPA / Play
2
19
EPA / Pass
2
28
EPA / Rush
10
7
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
6
17
Interceptions / Game
5
32
Fumbles / Game
7
31
Turnover EPA / Game
27
1
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
2
7
4th Down Efficiency
1
8
RZ Efficiency
21
32
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Texans
6-4
SU
4-6
ATS
4-6
O/U
Chargers
4-6
SU
4-6
ATS
6-4
O/U