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  1. nfelo...
  2. predictions...
  3. texans @ chargers week 1, 2013

Game Summary

Spread
Total

Model

Quarterbacks

Matchup

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HOU logo
HOUTexans
-
31
TBD
Qualcomm Stadium
70°F
10 mph
28
LACChargers
-
LAC logo
TBD
Qualcomm Stadium
70°F
10 mph

Game Summary

Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Texans
7
0
7
11
25
Chargers
7
14
7
0
28

Spread

LAC logo
+6

Total

OVER
44

Game Statistics

General
Texans logo
Chargers logo
Total Yards
449
263
Total Plays
75
51
Yards / Play
6.0
5.2
EPA / Play
+0.13
+0.07
Passing Yards
329
183
Comp/Att
34/45(76%)
14/29(48%)
Yards / Pass
7.3
6.3
EPA / Pass
+0.23
+0.07
Rushing Yards
120
80
Rush Attempts
28
20
Yards / Rush
4.3
4.0
EPA / Rush
-0.08
-0.03
Downs & Conversions
Texans logo
Chargers logo
1st Downs
26
14
Passing 1st downs
19
11
Rushing 1st downs
5
2
Penalty 1st downs
2
1
3rd Down %
46%
50%
3rd Down Conversions
6
7
3rd Down Attempts
13
14
Red Zone %
100%
100%
Red Zone Conversions
3
4
Red Zone Attempts
3
4
Negative Plays
Texans logo
Chargers logo
Turnovers
1
1
Interceptions
1
1
Fumbles
0
0
Turnover EPA
-4.57
-7.15
Sacks
2
2
Sack Yards
-17
-12
Sack EPA
-3.01
-3.93
Penalties
7
7
Penalty Yards
73
55
Penalty EPA
-7.68
-13.58

Game Preview

nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game

Model

Projected Winner
HOU logo
HOUTexansFavored
Opening
-3.0
Current
-6.0
Model
-3.0

Win Probability

Market69.8%
Model59.6%
Spread Pick
LAC logo
Chargers+6.0
Projected +EV
Expected Value
+18.4%
Cover Probability
60.8%
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+3
Home nfelo
1,482
Away nfelo
1,554
Home Field
+84.9
Base HFA
+62.5
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
--
Time Adj
+22.4
Net QB Adjustment
-9.4
Home QB Adjustment
-7.1
Away QB Adjustment
+2.3
Market Regression
-33.2
Final Difference
-67.3
Model Spread
+3.0

Quarterbacks

M. Schaub headshot

M. Schaub

Proj. Value
-1.0
Team Elo Adj
+2.3
Value
Ptile
11/11
-6.1
12
11/18
14.3
99
11/22
-0.6
46
12/02
2.2
63
12/10
-4.0
25
12/16
1.2
57
12/23
-5.5
15
12/30
-5.7
14
01/05
3.5
72
01/13
5.3
83
P. Rivers headshot

P. Rivers

Proj. Value
+0.5
Team Elo Adj
-7.1
Value
Ptile
10/28
-3.9
25
11/01
2.9
69
11/11
4.5
79
11/18
-3.1
29
11/25
-3.0
30
12/02
-3.5
27
12/09
2.9
68
12/16
-6.9
10
12/23
-2.7
32
12/30
-0.7
45

Team Matchup Ranks

Texans Offense vs Chargers Defense
Texans logo
Chargers logo

Total

Points / Game
31
9
Yards / Game
13
23
Passing Yards / Game
6
20
Rushing Yards / Game
20
14

EPA

EPA / Play
30
30
EPA / Pass
29
22
EPA / Rush
22
30

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
3
28
Interceptions / Game
28
24
Fumbles / Game
13
19
Turnover EPA / Game
3
5

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
22
21
4th Down Efficiency
26
15
RZ Efficiency
26
24
Chargers Offense vs Texans Defense
Chargers logo
Texans logo

Total

Points / Game
14
25
Yards / Game
8
6
Passing Yards / Game
2
10
Rushing Yards / Game
13
23

EPA

EPA / Play
2
19
EPA / Pass
2
28
EPA / Rush
10
7

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
6
17
Interceptions / Game
5
32
Fumbles / Game
7
31
Turnover EPA / Game
27
1

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
2
7
4th Down Efficiency
1
8
RZ Efficiency
21
32

Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)

HOU logo

Texans

6-4
SU
4-6
ATS
4-6
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
11/11
7
W
W
U
11/18
6
W
L
O
11/22
3
W
L
O
12/02
14
W
W
U
12/10
-28
L
L
O
12/16
12
W
W
U
12/23
-17
L
L
U
12/30
-12
L
L
U
01/05
6
W
W
U
01/13
-13
L
L
O
LAC logo

Chargers

4-6
SU
4-6
ATS
6-4
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
10/28
-1
L
L
U
11/01
18
W
W
O
11/11
-10
L
L
O
11/18
-7
L
W
O
11/25
-3
L
L
U
12/02
-7
L
L
U
12/09
10
W
W
O
12/16
-24
L
L
U
12/23
10
W
W
O
12/30
3
W
L
O