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  1. nfelo...
  2. predictions...
  3. texans @ chargers week 17, 2025

Game Summary

Spread
Total

Model

Quarterbacks

Matchup

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HOU logo
HOUTexans
10-5
20
TBD
SoFi Stadium
70°F
0
16
LACChargers
11-4
LAC logo
TBD
SoFi Stadium
70°F
0

Game Summary

Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Texans
14
0
3
3
20
Chargers
0
3
7
6
16

Spread

HOU logo
+1.5

Total

UNDER
40.5

Game Statistics

General
Texans logo
Chargers logo
Total Yards
362
275
Total Plays
62
59
Yards / Play
5.8
4.7
EPA / Play
-0.09
-0.23
Passing Yards
--
201
Comp/Att
16/28(57%)
21/32(66%)
Yards / Pass
--
6.3
EPA / Pass
-0.17
-0.28
Rushing Yards
118
74
Rush Attempts
34
22
Yards / Rush
3.5
3.4
EPA / Rush
-0.18
-0.17
Downs & Conversions
Texans logo
Chargers logo
1st Downs
16
16
Passing 1st downs
8
11
Rushing 1st downs
5
2
Penalty 1st downs
3
3
3rd Down %
27%
40%
3rd Down Conversions
3
6
3rd Down Attempts
11
15
Red Zone %
NaN%
40%
Red Zone Conversions
--
2
Red Zone Attempts
--
5
Negative Plays
Texans logo
Chargers logo
Turnovers
2
1
Interceptions
2
1
Fumbles
0
0
Turnover EPA
-8.56
-4.59
Sacks
--
5
Sack Yards
--
-35
Sack EPA
--
-9.19
Penalties
8
3
Penalty Yards
70
--
Penalty EPA
-6.88
--

Game Preview

nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game

Model

Projected Winner
LAC logo
LACChargersFavored
Opening
-2.0
Current
-1.5
Model
-1.5

Win Probability

Market53.2%
Model53.2%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+31
Home nfelo
1,560
Away nfelo
1,568
Home Field
+52.5
Base HFA
+44.5
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
--
Time Adj
+8.0
Net QB Adjustment
-13.9
Home QB Adjustment
-9.4
Away QB Adjustment
+4.5
Market Regression
-7.0
Final Difference
22.3
Model Spread
-1.5

Quarterbacks

C. Stroud headshot

C. Stroud

Proj. Value
-0.5
Team Elo Adj
+4.5
Value
Ptile
09/21
-3.6
26
09/28
3.0
73
10/05
9.5
97
10/20
-5.0
17
10/26
7.4
93
11/02
-4.3
21
11/30
-2.9
30
12/07
-4.1
23
12/14
5.5
86
12/21
-0.4
47
J. Herbert headshot

J. Herbert

Proj. Value
-0.4
Team Elo Adj
-9.4
Value
Ptile
10/12
4.6
81
10/19
5.3
85
10/23
5.5
86
11/02
0.2
53
11/09
-3.8
24
11/16
-8.8
4
11/30
-3.6
26
12/08
-7.6
6
12/14
-5.0
18
12/21
9.7
97

Team Matchup Ranks

Texans Offense vs Chargers Defense
Texans logo
Chargers logo

Total

Points / Game
16
7
Yards / Game
20
4
Passing Yards / Game
24
7
Rushing Yards / Game
24
9

EPA

EPA / Play
23
8
EPA / Pass
14
7
EPA / Rush
30
5

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
28
4
Interceptions / Game
9
3
Fumbles / Game
3
29
Turnover EPA / Game
31
19

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
22
6
4th Down Efficiency
16
12
RZ Efficiency
30
4
Chargers Offense vs Texans Defense
Chargers logo
Texans logo

Total

Points / Game
17
1
Yards / Game
12
1
Passing Yards / Game
10
14
Rushing Yards / Game
12
4

EPA

EPA / Play
21
1
EPA / Pass
20
1
EPA / Rush
18
12

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
21
22
Interceptions / Game
23
4
Fumbles / Game
6
16
Turnover EPA / Game
11
29

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
3
4
4th Down Efficiency
18
7
RZ Efficiency
27
17

Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)

HOU logo

Texans

8-2
SU
6-4
ATS
4-6
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
10/20
-8
L
L
O
10/26
11
W
W
U
11/02
-3
L
L
U
11/09
7
W
W
O
11/16
3
W
L
U
11/20
4
W
W
U
11/30
4
W
W
U
12/07
10
W
W
U
12/14
20
W
W
O
12/21
2
W
L
O
LAC logo

Chargers

8-2
SU
6-4
ATS
6-4
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
10/12
2
W
L
O
10/19
-14
L
L
O
10/23
27
W
W
O
11/02
7
W
L
O
11/09
15
W
W
U
11/16
-29
L
L
U
11/30
17
W
W
O
12/08
3
W
W
U
12/14
3
W
W
U
12/21
17
W
W
O