HOUTexans
2-4
16
TBD
GEHA Field at Arrowhead Stadium
70°F
15 mph
17
KCChiefs
6-0
TBD
GEHA Field at Arrowhead Stadium
70°F
15 mph
Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Texans
3
7
6
0
16
Chiefs
7
7
3
0
17
Spread
+6.5
Total
UNDER
38.5
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
294
357
Total Plays
54
68
Yards / Play
5.4
5.3
EPA / Play
-0.01
-0.04
Passing Yards
221
231
Comp/Att
15/25(60%)
23/34(68%)
Yards / Pass
8.8
6.8
EPA / Pass
+0.02
+0.14
Rushing Yards
73
126
Rush Attempts
24
32
Yards / Rush
3.0
3.9
EPA / Rush
-0.15
-0.28
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
14
20
Passing 1st downs
10
10
Rushing 1st downs
4
8
Penalty 1st downs
--
2
3rd Down %
33%
47%
3rd Down Conversions
4
7
3rd Down Attempts
12
15
Red Zone %
0%
40%
Red Zone Conversions
--
2
Red Zone Attempts
1
5
Negative Plays
Turnovers
1
2
Interceptions
0
1
Fumbles
1
1
Turnover EPA
-5.84
-7.24
Sacks
5
2
Sack Yards
-50
-9
Sack EPA
-12.41
-2.11
Penalties
4
5
Penalty Yards
40
24
Penalty EPA
-5.99
-3.80
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
KCChiefsFavored
Opening
-5.0
Current
-6.5
Model
-6.5
Win Probability
Market71.0%
Model71.0%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+190
Home nfelo
1,504
Away nfelo
1,523
Home Field
+62.5
Base HFA
+62.5
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
--
Time Adj
--
Net QB Adjustment
+145.4
Home QB Adjustment
+6.9
Away QB Adjustment
-138.5
Market Regression
+6.6
Final Difference
155.5
Model Spread
-6.5
Quarterbacks
C. Keenum
Proj. Value
-1.8
Team Elo Adj
-138.5
No recent game data available
A. Smith
Proj. Value
-2.3
Team Elo Adj
+6.9
Team Matchup Ranks
Texans Offense vs Chiefs Defense
Total
Points / Game
31
7
Yards / Game
13
25
Passing Yards / Game
6
6
Rushing Yards / Game
20
22
EPA
EPA / Play
30
5
EPA / Pass
29
9
EPA / Rush
22
18
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
3
19
Interceptions / Game
28
3
Fumbles / Game
13
3
Turnover EPA / Game
3
32
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
22
8
4th Down Efficiency
26
20
RZ Efficiency
26
17
Chiefs Offense vs Texans Defense
Total
Points / Game
3
25
Yards / Game
12
6
Passing Yards / Game
23
10
Rushing Yards / Game
10
23
EPA
EPA / Play
9
19
EPA / Pass
17
28
EPA / Rush
7
7
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
26
17
Interceptions / Game
1
32
Fumbles / Game
28
31
Turnover EPA / Game
32
1
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
21
7
4th Down Efficiency
27
8
RZ Efficiency
6
32
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Texans
3-7
SU
1-9
ATS
5-5
O/U
Chiefs
6-4
SU
5-5
ATS
1-8-1
O/U