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  1. nfelo...
  2. predictions...
  3. texans @ chiefs week 14, 2025

Game Summary

Spread
Total

Model

Quarterbacks

Matchup

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HOU logo
HOUTexans
7-5
20
TBD
GEHA Field at Arrowhead Stadium
27°F
8 mph
10
KCChiefs
6-6
KC logo
TBD
GEHA Field at Arrowhead Stadium
27°F
8 mph

Game Summary

Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Texans
3
7
0
10
20
Chiefs
0
0
10
0
10

Spread

HOU logo
+4.5

Total

UNDER
41.5

Game Statistics

General
Texans logo
Chiefs logo
Total Yards
268
274
Total Plays
65
64
Yards / Play
4.1
4.3
EPA / Play
-0.11
-0.32
Passing Yards
186
148
Comp/Att
15/31(48%)
14/33(42%)
Yards / Pass
6.0
4.5
EPA / Pass
+0.01
-0.68
Rushing Yards
82
126
Rush Attempts
31
29
Yards / Rush
2.6
4.3
EPA / Rush
-0.16
+0.13
Downs & Conversions
Texans logo
Chiefs logo
1st Downs
14
15
Passing 1st downs
7
8
Rushing 1st downs
5
6
Penalty 1st downs
2
1
3rd Down %
44%
29%
3rd Down Conversions
8
4
3rd Down Attempts
18
14
Red Zone %
50%
50%
Red Zone Conversions
2
1
Red Zone Attempts
4
2
Negative Plays
Texans logo
Chiefs logo
Turnovers
0
3
Interceptions
0
3
Fumbles
0
0
Turnover EPA
--
-8.15
Sacks
3
2
Sack Yards
-17
-12
Sack EPA
-3.02
-3.18
Penalties
8
5
Penalty Yards
59
20
Penalty EPA
-6.46
-3.65

Game Preview

nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game

Model

Projected Winner
KC logo
KCChiefsFavored
Opening
-3.5
Current
-4.5
Model
-4.5

Win Probability

Market66.1%
Model66.1%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+141
Home nfelo
1,620
Away nfelo
1,545
Home Field
+59.9
Base HFA
+44.4
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
+15.5
Time Adj
--
Net QB Adjustment
+5.8
Home QB Adjustment
+6.0
Away QB Adjustment
+0.2
Market Regression
+7.2
Final Difference
116.0
Model Spread
-4.5

Quarterbacks

C. Stroud headshot

C. Stroud

Proj. Value
-0.5
Team Elo Adj
+0.2
Value
Ptile
01/18
-3.5
25
09/07
-3.4
27
09/15
-3.1
28
09/21
-3.6
26
09/28
3.0
73
10/05
9.5
97
10/20
-5.0
17
10/26
7.4
93
11/02
-4.3
21
11/30
-2.9
30
P. Mahomes headshot

P. Mahomes

Proj. Value
+1.3
Team Elo Adj
+6.0
Value
Ptile
09/21
-2.6
33
09/28
7.3
93
10/06
9.5
97
10/12
7.1
92
10/19
8.1
94
10/27
2.8
71
11/02
-6.9
8
11/16
0.4
54
11/23
-1.0
43
11/27
5.1
85

Team Matchup Ranks

Texans Offense vs Chiefs Defense
Texans logo
Chiefs logo

Total

Points / Game
16
6
Yards / Game
20
10
Passing Yards / Game
24
12
Rushing Yards / Game
24
10

EPA

EPA / Play
23
21
EPA / Pass
14
17
EPA / Rush
30
14

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
28
13
Interceptions / Game
9
19
Fumbles / Game
3
29
Turnover EPA / Game
31
5

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
22
29
4th Down Efficiency
16
1
RZ Efficiency
30
12
Chiefs Offense vs Texans Defense
Chiefs logo
Texans logo

Total

Points / Game
20
1
Yards / Game
17
1
Passing Yards / Game
9
14
Rushing Yards / Game
23
4

EPA

EPA / Play
9
1
EPA / Pass
11
1
EPA / Rush
5
12

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
11
22
Interceptions / Game
21
4
Fumbles / Game
1
16
Turnover EPA / Game
29
29

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
16
4
4th Down Efficiency
2
7
RZ Efficiency
12
17

Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)

HOU logo

Texans

7-3
SU
6-4
ATS
3-7
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
09/21
-7
L
L
U
09/28
26
W
W
U
10/05
34
W
W
O
10/20
-8
L
L
O
10/26
11
W
W
U
11/02
-3
L
L
U
11/09
7
W
W
O
11/16
3
W
L
U
11/20
4
W
W
U
11/30
4
W
W
U
KC logo

Chiefs

6-4
SU
5-5
ATS
3-7
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
09/21
13
W
W
U
09/28
17
W
W
O
10/06
-3
L
L
O
10/12
13
W
W
U
10/19
31
W
W
U
10/27
21
W
W
U
11/02
-7
L
L
U
11/16
-3
L
L
U
11/23
3
W
L
U
11/27
-3
L
L
O