HOUTexans
-
29
TBD
Lucas Oil Stadium
70°F
027
INDColts
-
TBD
Lucas Oil Stadium
70°F
0Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Texans
6
6
3
14
29
Colts
7
0
6
14
27
Spread
+3
Total
OVER
47.5
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
417
303
Total Plays
77
44
Yards / Play
5.4
6.9
EPA / Play
+0.16
+0.13
Passing Yards
204
199
Comp/Att
24/32(75%)
9/19(47%)
Yards / Pass
6.4
10.5
EPA / Pass
+0.23
-0.16
Rushing Yards
213
104
Rush Attempts
41
23
Yards / Rush
5.2
4.5
EPA / Rush
+0.03
+0.23
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
26
14
Passing 1st downs
13
4
Rushing 1st downs
11
9
Penalty 1st downs
2
1
3rd Down %
50%
50%
3rd Down Conversions
7
5
3rd Down Attempts
14
10
Red Zone %
100%
67%
Red Zone Conversions
3
2
Red Zone Attempts
3
3
Negative Plays
Turnovers
0
1
Interceptions
0
1
Fumbles
0
0
Turnover EPA
--
-3.87
Sacks
4
2
Sack Yards
-30
-13
Sack EPA
-7.31
-4.62
Penalties
5
4
Penalty Yards
30
20
Penalty EPA
-3.04
-4.63
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
HOUTexansFavored
Opening
-2.5
Current
-3.0
Model
-3.0
Win Probability
Market59.7%
Model59.7%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
-49
Home nfelo
1,452
Away nfelo
1,526
Home Field
+33.8
Base HFA
+46.4
Divisional Adj
-20.9
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
--
Time Adj
+8.3
Net QB Adjustment
-8.1
Home QB Adjustment
+2.1
Away QB Adjustment
+10.2
Market Regression
-22.1
Final Difference
-68.3
Model Spread
+3.0
Quarterbacks
C. Stroud
Proj. Value
-1.9
Team Elo Adj
+10.2
A. Richardson
Proj. Value
-1.2
Team Elo Adj
+2.1
Team Matchup Ranks
Texans Offense vs Colts Defense
Total
Points / Game
18
24
Yards / Game
17
29
Passing Yards / Game
11
12
Rushing Yards / Game
13
23
EPA
EPA / Play
22
15
EPA / Pass
22
27
EPA / Rush
26
5
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
29
25
Interceptions / Game
16
5
Fumbles / Game
16
11
Turnover EPA / Game
21
25
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
17
29
4th Down Efficiency
10
11
RZ Efficiency
28
23
Colts Offense vs Texans Defense
Total
Points / Game
16
10
Yards / Game
13
2
Passing Yards / Game
24
11
Rushing Yards / Game
8
9
EPA
EPA / Play
23
6
EPA / Pass
23
3
EPA / Rush
17
6
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
8
3
Interceptions / Game
29
2
Fumbles / Game
22
17
Turnover EPA / Game
4
29
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
19
3
4th Down Efficiency
11
23
RZ Efficiency
23
21
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Texans
6-4
SU
5-5
ATS
3-6-1
O/U
Colts
6-4
SU
5-5
ATS
6-4
O/U