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  1. nfelo...
  2. predictions...
  3. texans @ colts week 1, 2024

Game Summary

Spread
Total

Model

Quarterbacks

Matchup

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nfelo

Advanced NFL analytics platform powered by the nflfastR dataset and custom open source models.

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    Team Power Ratings
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    Offensive and Defensive EPA Tiers
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    Projected and realized opponent quality
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    Win total projections and results

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HOU logo
HOUTexans
-
29
TBD
Lucas Oil Stadium
70°F
0
27
INDColts
-
IND logo
TBD
Lucas Oil Stadium
70°F
0

Game Summary

Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Texans
6
6
3
14
29
Colts
7
0
6
14
27

Spread

IND logo
+3

Total

OVER
47.5

Game Statistics

General
Texans logo
Colts logo
Total Yards
417
303
Total Plays
77
44
Yards / Play
5.4
6.9
EPA / Play
+0.16
+0.13
Passing Yards
204
199
Comp/Att
24/32(75%)
9/19(47%)
Yards / Pass
6.4
10.5
EPA / Pass
+0.23
-0.16
Rushing Yards
213
104
Rush Attempts
41
23
Yards / Rush
5.2
4.5
EPA / Rush
+0.03
+0.23
Downs & Conversions
Texans logo
Colts logo
1st Downs
26
14
Passing 1st downs
13
4
Rushing 1st downs
11
9
Penalty 1st downs
2
1
3rd Down %
50%
50%
3rd Down Conversions
7
5
3rd Down Attempts
14
10
Red Zone %
100%
67%
Red Zone Conversions
3
2
Red Zone Attempts
3
3
Negative Plays
Texans logo
Colts logo
Turnovers
0
1
Interceptions
0
1
Fumbles
0
0
Turnover EPA
--
-3.87
Sacks
4
2
Sack Yards
-30
-13
Sack EPA
-7.31
-4.62
Penalties
5
4
Penalty Yards
30
20
Penalty EPA
-3.04
-4.63

Game Preview

nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game

Model

Projected Winner
HOU logo
HOUTexansFavored
Opening
-2.5
Current
-3.0
Model
-3.0

Win Probability

Market59.7%
Model59.7%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
-46
Home nfelo
1,451
Away nfelo
1,523
Home Field
+34.1
Base HFA
+46.8
Divisional Adj
-21.1
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
--
Time Adj
+8.4
Net QB Adjustment
-8.4
Home QB Adjustment
+2.0
Away QB Adjustment
+10.3
Market Regression
-22.1
Final Difference
-68.3
Model Spread
+3.0

Quarterbacks

C. Stroud headshot

C. Stroud

Proj. Value
-1.5
Team Elo Adj
+10.3
Value
Ptile
11/05
12.9
99
11/12
4.5
78
11/19
-1.8
38
11/26
6.9
90
12/03
-3.0
29
12/10
-8.7
6
12/31
2.1
64
01/06
4.5
78
01/13
8.9
96
01/20
1.2
57
A. Richardson headshot

A. Richardson

Proj. Value
-1.4
Team Elo Adj
+2.0
Value
Ptile
09/10
-0.8
45
09/17
2.1
64
10/01
3.8
75
10/08
-4.1
24

Team Matchup Ranks

Texans Offense vs Colts Defense
Texans logo
Colts logo

Total

Points / Game
18
24
Yards / Game
17
29
Passing Yards / Game
11
12
Rushing Yards / Game
13
23

EPA

EPA / Play
22
15
EPA / Pass
22
27
EPA / Rush
26
5

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
29
25
Interceptions / Game
16
5
Fumbles / Game
16
11
Turnover EPA / Game
21
25

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
17
29
4th Down Efficiency
10
11
RZ Efficiency
28
23
Colts Offense vs Texans Defense
Colts logo
Texans logo

Total

Points / Game
16
10
Yards / Game
13
2
Passing Yards / Game
24
11
Rushing Yards / Game
8
9

EPA

EPA / Play
23
6
EPA / Pass
23
3
EPA / Rush
17
6

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
8
3
Interceptions / Game
29
2
Fumbles / Game
22
17
Turnover EPA / Game
4
29

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
19
3
4th Down Efficiency
11
23
RZ Efficiency
23
21

Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)

HOU logo

Texans

6-4
SU
5-5
ATS
3-6-1
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
11/19
5
W
L
U
11/26
-3
L
L
U
12/03
5
W
W
U
12/10
-24
L
L
O
12/17
3
W
W
U
12/24
-14
L
L
O
12/31
23
W
W
U
01/06
4
W
W
U
01/13
31
W
W
O
01/20
-24
L
L
P
IND logo

Colts

6-4
SU
5-5
ATS
6-4
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
10/29
-11
L
L
O
11/05
14
W
W
U
11/12
4
W
W
U
11/26
7
W
W
O
12/03
3
W
W
O
12/10
-20
L
L
O
12/16
17
W
W
O
12/24
-19
L
L
U
12/31
3
W
L
O
01/06
-4
L
L
U