HOUTexans
4-2
17
TBD
Lucas Oil Stadium
70°F
030
INDColts
4-2
TBD
Lucas Oil Stadium
70°F
0Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Texans
0
3
7
7
17
Colts
7
4
10
3
24
Spread
-5.5
Total
UNDER
50.5
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
291
366
Total Plays
59
74
Yards / Play
4.9
4.9
EPA / Play
-0.06
+0.11
Passing Yards
183
259
Comp/Att
22/38(58%)
26/45(58%)
Yards / Pass
4.8
5.8
EPA / Pass
-0.42
+0.21
Rushing Yards
108
107
Rush Attempts
18
28
Yards / Rush
6.0
3.8
EPA / Rush
+0.47
+0.02
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
19
24
Passing 1st downs
10
15
Rushing 1st downs
7
8
Penalty 1st downs
2
1
3rd Down %
27%
47%
3rd Down Conversions
3
7
3rd Down Attempts
11
15
Red Zone %
50%
50%
Red Zone Conversions
1
2
Red Zone Attempts
2
4
Negative Plays
Turnovers
2
0
Interceptions
1
0
Fumbles
1
0
Turnover EPA
-10.96
--
Sacks
3
1
Sack Yards
-18
-9
Sack EPA
-7.33
-2.30
Penalties
5
9
Penalty Yards
30
69
Penalty EPA
-1.92
-7.82
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
INDColtsFavored
Opening
-5.5
Current
-5.5
Model
-5.5
Win Probability
Market68.0%
Model68.0%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+124
Home nfelo
1,604
Away nfelo
1,511
Home Field
+14.2
Base HFA
+62.5
Divisional Adj
-28.2
Home Bye Adj
+17.9
Away Bye Adj
-48.6
Surface Adj
+21.8
Time Adj
-11.2
Net QB Adjustment
+17.1
Home QB Adjustment
+15.3
Away QB Adjustment
-1.8
Market Regression
--
Final Difference
130.9
Model Spread
-5.5
Quarterbacks
M. Schaub
Proj. Value
-1.0
Team Elo Adj
-1.8
P. Manning
Proj. Value
-2.5
Team Elo Adj
+15.3
Team Matchup Ranks
Texans Offense vs Colts Defense
Total
Points / Game
11
23
Yards / Game
3
20
Passing Yards / Game
13
15
Rushing Yards / Game
7
27
EPA
EPA / Play
2
29
EPA / Pass
5
21
EPA / Rush
4
29
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
9
31
Interceptions / Game
7
30
Fumbles / Game
3
21
Turnover EPA / Game
29
5
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
9
23
4th Down Efficiency
14
12
RZ Efficiency
5
16
Colts Offense vs Texans Defense
Total
Points / Game
4
29
Yards / Game
6
29
Passing Yards / Game
8
30
Rushing Yards / Game
29
14
EPA
EPA / Play
3
32
EPA / Pass
4
32
EPA / Rush
13
27
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
8
21
Interceptions / Game
16
23
Fumbles / Game
7
32
Turnover EPA / Game
21
3
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
5
20
4th Down Efficiency
7
32
RZ Efficiency
1
31
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Texans
8-2
SU
5-5
ATS
5-4-1
O/U
Colts
6-4
SU
5-4-1
ATS
6-4
O/U