nfelo logo

nfelo

Live
Platform
Kalshi
$10

$10 Bonus

Receive $10 when you sign up with Kalshi prediction market

Affiliate Disclosure: Some of the links and placements on this site may be affiliate links or paid partnerships. This means nfelo may receive compensation when you click these links or sign up for a partner’s service.

Offer Disclosure: Offers are for informational purposes only. Age, location, and other restrictions may apply. nfelo does not validate offer availability. See provider for full terms.

  1. nfelo...
  2. predictions...
  3. texans @ colts week 9, 2009

Game Summary

Spread
Total

Model

Quarterbacks

Matchup

nfelo logo

nfelo

Advanced NFL analytics platform powered by the nflfastR dataset and custom open source models.

Analysis
Research and insights that power the nfelo model
About
How nfelo works

Predictions

  • Games
    Game previews and model projections
  • Confidence Pool
    Weekly confidence pool picks
  • Betting Card
    +EV NFL Sides
  • Model Performance
    Historic nfelo model performance

Teams

  • Power Ratings
    Team Power Ratings
  • EPA Tiers
    Offensive and Defensive EPA Tiers
  • Tendencies
    Pass rates, formations, and play styles
  • Strength of Schedule
    Projected and realized opponent quality
  • Win Totals
    Win total projections and results

QBs

  • QB Rankings
    QB Elo, EPA, Ratings, and Stats
  • Era Adjusted Elo
    QB Elo model adjusted for era

Tools & More

  • Receiving Leaders
    Advanced stats for receivers
  • Head Coaches
    Stats and ATS Records for Coaches
  • HFA Tracker
    Home Field Advantage for every team
  • NFL Odds Calculator
    Calculate and convert betting odds
  • Cover Probability
    Calculate EV for spreads
  • Sportsbook Hold
    Calculate the hold for odds
  • Hedge Calculator
    Calculate strategy optimal hedge size
  • Parlay Payout Calculator
    Calculate parlay payouts
  • QB Passer Rating Calculator
    Calculate passer rating from stats

© 2026 nfelo. All rights reserved.

Entertainment purposes only. The information contained on nfeloapp.com is not intended to be, and shall not be construed as, gambling advice, financial advice, or any other professional advice or service. nfeloapp.com and its owners assume no responsibility for errors or omissions. Please gamble responsibly.

HOU logo
HOUTexans
5-3
17
TBD
Lucas Oil Stadium
70°F
0
20
INDColts
7-0
IND logo
TBD
Lucas Oil Stadium
70°F
0

Game Summary

Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Texans
0
3
7
7
17
Colts
10
3
0
7
20

Spread

HOU logo
+7.5

Total

UNDER
50.5

Game Statistics

General
Texans logo
Colts logo
Total Yards
382
378
Total Plays
71
71
Yards / Play
5.4
5.3
EPA / Play
-0.02
+0.02
Passing Yards
301
306
Comp/Att
32/43(74%)
34/51(67%)
Yards / Pass
7.0
6.0
EPA / Pass
+0.06
-0.06
Rushing Yards
81
72
Rush Attempts
26
18
Yards / Rush
3.1
4.0
EPA / Rush
-0.06
-0.18
Downs & Conversions
Texans logo
Colts logo
1st Downs
22
27
Passing 1st downs
16
18
Rushing 1st downs
5
3
Penalty 1st downs
1
6
3rd Down %
63%
50%
3rd Down Conversions
10
6
3rd Down Attempts
16
12
Red Zone %
67%
50%
Red Zone Conversions
2
2
Red Zone Attempts
3
4
Negative Plays
Texans logo
Colts logo
Turnovers
3
2
Interceptions
2
2
Fumbles
1
0
Turnover EPA
-13.29
-9.79
Sacks
2
2
Sack Yards
-10
-12
Sack EPA
-2.96
-1.96
Penalties
13
4
Penalty Yards
103
40
Penalty EPA
-11.91
-3.31

Game Preview

nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game

Model

Projected Winner
IND logo
INDColtsFavored
Opening
-9.0
Current
-7.5
Model
-7.5

Win Probability

Market74.4%
Model74.4%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+179
Home nfelo
1,637
Away nfelo
1,530
Home Field
+67.3
Base HFA
+62.5
Divisional Adj
-28.2
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
+21.8
Time Adj
+11.2
Net QB Adjustment
+4.3
Home QB Adjustment
+24.7
Away QB Adjustment
+20.4
Market Regression
-31.5
Final Difference
185.3
Model Spread
-7.5

Quarterbacks

M. Schaub headshot

M. Schaub

Proj. Value
-1.0
Team Elo Adj
+20.4
Value
Ptile
12/21
-3.5
25
12/28
8.8
95
09/13
-5.1
20
09/20
11.7
99
09/27
5.5
84
10/04
-5.0
21
10/11
8.0
92
10/18
8.8
94
10/25
4.1
76
11/01
0.2
51
P. Manning headshot

P. Manning

Proj. Value
-2.5
Team Elo Adj
+24.7
Value
Ptile
12/18
13.3
100
12/28
0.6
56
01/03
2.5
69
09/13
3.2
71
09/21
5.7
85
09/27
10.4
97
10/04
8.4
93
10/11
10.2
96
10/25
6.6
87
11/01
2.2
65

Team Matchup Ranks

Texans Offense vs Colts Defense
Texans logo
Colts logo

Total

Points / Game
10
7
Yards / Game
5
18
Passing Yards / Game
10
17
Rushing Yards / Game
30
20

EPA

EPA / Play
9
17
EPA / Pass
6
16
EPA / Rush
29
17

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
5
31
Interceptions / Game
18
15
Fumbles / Game
25
22
Turnover EPA / Game
10
10

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
15
30
4th Down Efficiency
4
2
RZ Efficiency
12
13
Colts Offense vs Texans Defense
Colts logo
Texans logo

Total

Points / Game
7
16
Yards / Game
8
14
Passing Yards / Game
28
16
Rushing Yards / Game
32
10

EPA

EPA / Play
3
16
EPA / Pass
4
11
EPA / Rush
27
13

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
10
27
Interceptions / Game
21
21
Fumbles / Game
1
20
Turnover EPA / Game
26
19

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
2
20
4th Down Efficiency
13
7
RZ Efficiency
2
30

Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)

HOU logo

Texans

6-4
SU
5-4-1
ATS
3-5-2
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
12/21
-11
L
L
P
12/28
7
W
W
P
09/13
-17
L
L
U
09/20
3
W
W
O
09/27
-7
L
L
O
10/04
23
W
W
U
10/11
-7
L
L
U
10/18
11
W
W
U
10/25
3
W
P
O
11/01
21
W
W
U
IND logo

Colts

9-1
SU
7-3
ATS
3-4-3
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
12/18
7
W
W
P
12/28
23
W
W
P
01/03
-6
L
L
P
09/13
2
W
L
U
09/21
4
W
W
O
09/27
21
W
W
U
10/04
17
W
W
O
10/11
22
W
W
U
10/25
36
W
W
O
11/01
4
W
L
U