HOUTexans
5-3
17
TBD
Lucas Oil Stadium
70°F
020
INDColts
7-0
TBD
Lucas Oil Stadium
70°F
0Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Texans
0
3
7
7
17
Colts
10
3
0
7
20
Spread
+7.5
Total
UNDER
50.5
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
382
378
Total Plays
71
71
Yards / Play
5.4
5.3
EPA / Play
-0.02
+0.02
Passing Yards
301
306
Comp/Att
32/43(74%)
34/51(67%)
Yards / Pass
7.0
6.0
EPA / Pass
+0.06
-0.06
Rushing Yards
81
72
Rush Attempts
26
18
Yards / Rush
3.1
4.0
EPA / Rush
-0.06
-0.18
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
22
27
Passing 1st downs
16
18
Rushing 1st downs
5
3
Penalty 1st downs
1
6
3rd Down %
63%
50%
3rd Down Conversions
10
6
3rd Down Attempts
16
12
Red Zone %
67%
50%
Red Zone Conversions
2
2
Red Zone Attempts
3
4
Negative Plays
Turnovers
3
2
Interceptions
2
2
Fumbles
1
0
Turnover EPA
-13.29
-9.79
Sacks
2
2
Sack Yards
-10
-12
Sack EPA
-2.96
-1.96
Penalties
13
4
Penalty Yards
103
40
Penalty EPA
-11.91
-3.31
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
INDColtsFavored
Opening
-9.0
Current
-7.5
Model
-7.5
Win Probability
Market74.4%
Model74.4%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+183
Home nfelo
1,638
Away nfelo
1,527
Home Field
+67.3
Base HFA
+62.5
Divisional Adj
-28.2
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
+21.8
Time Adj
+11.2
Net QB Adjustment
+4.3
Home QB Adjustment
+24.7
Away QB Adjustment
+20.4
Market Regression
-31.5
Final Difference
185.3
Model Spread
-7.5
Quarterbacks
M. Schaub
Proj. Value
-1.0
Team Elo Adj
+20.4
P. Manning
Proj. Value
-2.5
Team Elo Adj
+24.7
Team Matchup Ranks
Texans Offense vs Colts Defense
Total
Points / Game
10
7
Yards / Game
5
18
Passing Yards / Game
10
17
Rushing Yards / Game
30
20
EPA
EPA / Play
9
17
EPA / Pass
6
16
EPA / Rush
29
17
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
5
31
Interceptions / Game
18
15
Fumbles / Game
25
22
Turnover EPA / Game
10
10
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
15
30
4th Down Efficiency
4
2
RZ Efficiency
12
13
Colts Offense vs Texans Defense
Total
Points / Game
7
16
Yards / Game
8
14
Passing Yards / Game
28
16
Rushing Yards / Game
32
10
EPA
EPA / Play
3
16
EPA / Pass
4
11
EPA / Rush
27
13
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
10
27
Interceptions / Game
21
21
Fumbles / Game
1
20
Turnover EPA / Game
26
19
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
2
20
4th Down Efficiency
13
7
RZ Efficiency
2
30
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Texans
6-4
SU
5-4-1
ATS
3-5-2
O/U
Colts
9-1
SU
7-3
ATS
3-4-3
O/U