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  1. nfelo...
  2. predictions...
  3. texans @ colts week 13, 2025

Game Summary

Spread
Total

Model

Quarterbacks

Matchup

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nfelo

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    Offensive and Defensive EPA Tiers
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HOU logo
HOUTexans
6-5
20
TBD
Lucas Oil Stadium
70°F
0
16
INDColts
8-3
IND logo
TBD
Lucas Oil Stadium
70°F
0

Game Summary

Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Texans
3
7
3
7
20
Colts
0
6
7
3
16

Spread

HOU logo
+3

Total

UNDER
44.5

Game Statistics

General
Texans logo
Colts logo
Total Yards
364
281
Total Plays
71
51
Yards / Play
5.1
5.5
EPA / Play
+0.05
-0.07
Passing Yards
256
195
Comp/Att
22/35(63%)
14/27(52%)
Yards / Pass
7.3
7.2
EPA / Pass
+0.22
+0.02
Rushing Yards
108
86
Rush Attempts
34
23
Yards / Rush
3.2
3.7
EPA / Rush
-0.20
-0.28
Downs & Conversions
Texans logo
Colts logo
1st Downs
24
17
Passing 1st downs
14
9
Rushing 1st downs
7
5
Penalty 1st downs
3
3
3rd Down %
46%
30%
3rd Down Conversions
6
3
3rd Down Attempts
13
10
Red Zone %
40%
50%
Red Zone Conversions
2
2
Red Zone Attempts
5
4
Negative Plays
Texans logo
Colts logo
Turnovers
1
0
Interceptions
1
0
Fumbles
0
0
Turnover EPA
-3.51
--
Sacks
2
1
Sack Yards
-20
-6
Sack EPA
-3.55
-2.26
Penalties
9
5
Penalty Yards
85
33
Penalty EPA
-10.77
-6.76

Game Preview

nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game

Model

Projected Winner
IND logo
INDColtsFavored
Opening
-4.5
Current
-3.0
Model
-3.0

Win Probability

Market59.3%
Model59.3%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+64
Home nfelo
1,553
Away nfelo
1,536
Home Field
+32.5
Base HFA
+44.7
Divisional Adj
-20.2
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
--
Time Adj
+8.0
Net QB Adjustment
+14.4
Home QB Adjustment
+17.8
Away QB Adjustment
+3.4
Market Regression
-50.6
Final Difference
65.4
Model Spread
-3.0

Quarterbacks

C. Stroud headshot

C. Stroud

Proj. Value
-1.6
Team Elo Adj
+3.4
Value
Ptile
01/11
1.0
55
01/18
-3.5
25
09/07
-3.3
27
09/15
-3.1
29
09/21
-3.6
26
09/28
3.0
73
10/05
9.6
97
10/20
-5.0
17
10/26
7.5
93
11/02
-4.3
22
D. Jones headshot

D. Jones

Proj. Value
+0.0
Team Elo Adj
+17.8
Value
Ptile
09/14
5.6
87
09/21
3.9
77
09/28
-1.9
38
10/05
2.8
71
10/12
3.4
75
10/19
4.7
82
10/26
3.2
74
11/02
-4.7
19
11/09
-2.8
31
11/23
2.4
68

Team Matchup Ranks

Texans Offense vs Colts Defense
Texans logo
Colts logo

Total

Points / Game
13
21
Yards / Game
18
23
Passing Yards / Game
26
28
Rushing Yards / Game
22
7

EPA

EPA / Play
24
20
EPA / Pass
16
18
EPA / Rush
30
10

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
29
25
Interceptions / Game
21
11
Fumbles / Game
7
17
Turnover EPA / Game
22
23

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
18
24
4th Down Efficiency
15
14
RZ Efficiency
29
10
Colts Offense vs Texans Defense
Colts logo
Texans logo

Total

Points / Game
7
3
Yards / Game
8
1
Passing Yards / Game
12
16
Rushing Yards / Game
17
2

EPA

EPA / Play
5
1
EPA / Pass
12
1
EPA / Rush
2
3

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
15
22
Interceptions / Game
26
4
Fumbles / Game
18
4
Turnover EPA / Game
10
29

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
7
2
4th Down Efficiency
4
9
RZ Efficiency
6
13

Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)

HOU logo

Texans

6-4
SU
5-5
ATS
3-7
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
09/15
-1
L
L
U
09/21
-7
L
L
U
09/28
26
W
W
U
10/05
34
W
W
O
10/20
-8
L
L
O
10/26
11
W
W
U
11/02
-3
L
L
U
11/09
7
W
W
O
11/16
3
W
L
U
11/20
4
W
W
U
IND logo

Colts

7-3
SU
6-4
ATS
6-4
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
09/14
1
W
W
O
09/21
21
W
W
O
09/28
-7
L
L
U
10/05
34
W
W
U
10/12
4
W
L
O
10/19
14
W
W
O
10/26
24
W
W
O
11/02
-7
L
L
U
11/09
6
W
L
O
11/23
-3
L
W
U