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  1. nfelo...
  2. predictions...
  3. texans @ colts week 15, 2014

Game Summary

Spread
Total

Model

Quarterbacks

Matchup

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nfelo

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    Offensive and Defensive EPA Tiers
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HOU logo
HOUTexans
7-6
10
TBD
Lucas Oil Stadium
70°F
0
17
INDColts
9-4
IND logo
TBD
Lucas Oil Stadium
70°F
0

Game Summary

Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Texans
1
0
0
3
4
Colts
0
14
0
3
17

Spread

HOU logo
IND logo
7
P

Total

UNDER
49

Game Statistics

General
Texans logo
Colts logo
Total Yards
289
278
Total Plays
67
64
Yards / Play
4.3
4.3
EPA / Play
-0.30
-0.21
Passing Yards
152
168
Comp/Att
13/25(52%)
18/34(53%)
Yards / Pass
6.1
4.9
EPA / Pass
-0.15
-0.43
Rushing Yards
137
110
Rush Attempts
41
28
Yards / Rush
3.3
3.9
EPA / Rush
-0.44
-0.10
Downs & Conversions
Texans logo
Colts logo
1st Downs
14
20
Passing 1st downs
7
12
Rushing 1st downs
5
5
Penalty 1st downs
2
3
3rd Down %
31%
17%
3rd Down Conversions
5
2
3rd Down Attempts
16
12
Red Zone %
NaN%
50%
Red Zone Conversions
--
1
Red Zone Attempts
--
2
Negative Plays
Texans logo
Colts logo
Turnovers
2
2
Interceptions
1
1
Fumbles
1
1
Turnover EPA
-7.55
-11.46
Sacks
1
2
Sack Yards
-5
-19
Sack EPA
-1.32
-2.91
Penalties
8
7
Penalty Yards
66
45
Penalty EPA
-6.48
-4.54

Game Preview

nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game

Model

Projected Winner
IND logo
INDColtsFavored
Opening
-6.5
Current
-7.0
Model
-7.0

Win Probability

Market72.8%
Model72.8%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+163
Home nfelo
1,581
Away nfelo
1,491
Home Field
+67.3
Base HFA
+62.5
Divisional Adj
-28.2
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
+21.8
Time Adj
+11.2
Net QB Adjustment
+5.7
Home QB Adjustment
+24.8
Away QB Adjustment
+19.1
Market Regression
+15.5
Final Difference
171.0
Model Spread
-7.0

Quarterbacks

R. Fitzpatrick headshot

R. Fitzpatrick

Proj. Value
+0.4
Team Elo Adj
+19.1
Value
Ptile
09/14
1.1
57
09/21
-0.4
47
09/28
-1.6
38
10/05
-4.5
23
10/09
-2.9
30
10/20
2.8
70
10/26
-4.2
25
11/02
-2.7
31
11/30
15.5
100
12/07
-0.9
44
A. Luck headshot

A. Luck

Proj. Value
+2.7
Team Elo Adj
+24.8
Value
Ptile
09/28
11.2
98
10/05
3.5
74
10/09
2.7
69
10/19
4.9
81
10/26
4.6
81
11/03
7.5
90
11/16
2.7
69
11/23
0.3
51
11/30
10.0
96
12/07
-0.6
46

Team Matchup Ranks

Texans Offense vs Colts Defense
Texans logo
Colts logo

Total

Points / Game
14
18
Yards / Game
16
9
Passing Yards / Game
32
3
Rushing Yards / Game
5
19

EPA

EPA / Play
19
11
EPA / Pass
17
5
EPA / Rush
14
22

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
15
28
Interceptions / Game
11
25
Fumbles / Game
19
3
Turnover EPA / Game
16
8

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
22
3
4th Down Efficiency
6
5
RZ Efficiency
15
32
Colts Offense vs Texans Defense
Colts logo
Texans logo

Total

Points / Game
6
6
Yards / Game
3
16
Passing Yards / Game
1
23
Rushing Yards / Game
22
9

EPA

EPA / Play
10
2
EPA / Pass
9
2
EPA / Rush
30
8

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
20
27
Interceptions / Game
24
3
Fumbles / Game
30
6
Turnover EPA / Game
5
32

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
13
2
4th Down Efficiency
22
7
RZ Efficiency
12
4

Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)

HOU logo

Texans

5-5
SU
6-4
ATS
5-5
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
09/28
6
W
W
U
10/05
-3
L
W
U
10/09
-5
L
L
O
10/20
-7
L
L
O
10/26
14
W
W
O
11/02
-10
L
L
O
11/16
16
W
W
U
11/23
-9
L
L
U
11/30
24
W
W
O
12/07
14
W
W
U
IND logo

Colts

8-2
SU
7-3
ATS
6-4
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
09/28
24
W
W
O
10/05
7
W
W
U
10/09
5
W
W
O
10/19
27
W
W
U
10/26
-17
L
L
O
11/03
16
W
W
O
11/16
-22
L
L
O
11/23
20
W
W
U
11/30
22
W
W
O
12/07
1
W
L
U