HOUTexans
7-6
10
TBD
Lucas Oil Stadium
70°F
017
INDColts
9-4
TBD
Lucas Oil Stadium
70°F
0Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Texans
1
0
0
3
4
Colts
0
14
0
3
17
Spread
7
P
Total
UNDER
49
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
289
278
Total Plays
67
64
Yards / Play
4.3
4.3
EPA / Play
-0.30
-0.21
Passing Yards
152
168
Comp/Att
13/25(52%)
18/34(53%)
Yards / Pass
6.1
4.9
EPA / Pass
-0.15
-0.43
Rushing Yards
137
110
Rush Attempts
41
28
Yards / Rush
3.3
3.9
EPA / Rush
-0.44
-0.10
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
14
20
Passing 1st downs
7
12
Rushing 1st downs
5
5
Penalty 1st downs
2
3
3rd Down %
31%
17%
3rd Down Conversions
5
2
3rd Down Attempts
16
12
Red Zone %
NaN%
50%
Red Zone Conversions
--
1
Red Zone Attempts
--
2
Negative Plays
Turnovers
2
2
Interceptions
1
1
Fumbles
1
1
Turnover EPA
-7.55
-11.46
Sacks
1
2
Sack Yards
-5
-19
Sack EPA
-1.32
-2.91
Penalties
8
7
Penalty Yards
66
45
Penalty EPA
-6.48
-4.54
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
INDColtsFavored
Opening
-6.5
Current
-7.0
Model
-7.0
Win Probability
Market72.8%
Model72.8%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+163
Home nfelo
1,582
Away nfelo
1,492
Home Field
+67.3
Base HFA
+62.5
Divisional Adj
-28.2
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
+21.8
Time Adj
+11.2
Net QB Adjustment
+5.7
Home QB Adjustment
+24.8
Away QB Adjustment
+19.1
Market Regression
+15.5
Final Difference
171.0
Model Spread
-7.0
Quarterbacks
R. Fitzpatrick
Proj. Value
+0.4
Team Elo Adj
+19.1
A. Luck
Proj. Value
+2.7
Team Elo Adj
+24.8
Team Matchup Ranks
Texans Offense vs Colts Defense
Total
Points / Game
14
18
Yards / Game
16
9
Passing Yards / Game
32
3
Rushing Yards / Game
5
19
EPA
EPA / Play
19
11
EPA / Pass
17
5
EPA / Rush
14
22
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
15
28
Interceptions / Game
11
25
Fumbles / Game
19
3
Turnover EPA / Game
16
8
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
22
3
4th Down Efficiency
6
5
RZ Efficiency
15
32
Colts Offense vs Texans Defense
Total
Points / Game
6
6
Yards / Game
3
16
Passing Yards / Game
1
23
Rushing Yards / Game
22
9
EPA
EPA / Play
10
2
EPA / Pass
9
2
EPA / Rush
30
8
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
20
27
Interceptions / Game
24
3
Fumbles / Game
30
6
Turnover EPA / Game
5
32
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
13
2
4th Down Efficiency
22
7
RZ Efficiency
12
4
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Texans
5-5
SU
6-4
ATS
5-5
O/U
Colts
8-2
SU
7-3
ATS
6-4
O/U