HOUTexans
12-3
16
TBD
Lucas Oil Stadium
70°F
028
INDColts
10-5
TBD
Lucas Oil Stadium
70°F
0Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Texans
3
3
10
0
16
Colts
7
7
7
7
28
Spread
+6.5
Total
UNDER
47
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
352
265
Total Plays
60
62
Yards / Play
5.9
4.3
EPA / Play
+0.04
+0.19
Passing Yards
250
184
Comp/Att
24/36(67%)
14/28(50%)
Yards / Pass
6.9
6.6
EPA / Pass
+0.06
+0.32
Rushing Yards
102
81
Rush Attempts
20
33
Yards / Rush
5.1
2.5
EPA / Rush
+0.07
-0.28
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
19
19
Passing 1st downs
14
9
Rushing 1st downs
3
8
Penalty 1st downs
2
2
3rd Down %
45%
60%
3rd Down Conversions
5
9
3rd Down Attempts
11
15
Red Zone %
33%
67%
Red Zone Conversions
1
2
Red Zone Attempts
3
3
Negative Plays
Turnovers
2
0
Interceptions
2
0
Fumbles
0
0
Turnover EPA
-8.78
--
Sacks
4
1
Sack Yards
-25
-7
Sack EPA
-5.56
-1.98
Penalties
9
3
Penalty Yards
64
24
Penalty EPA
-6.91
-2.88
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
HOUTexansFavored
Opening
-4.0
Current
-6.5
Model
-5.0
Win Probability
Market71.4%
Model67.2%
Spread Pick
Colts+6.5
Expected Value
+2.1%
Cover Probability
53.5%
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
-87
Home nfelo
1,439
Away nfelo
1,591
Home Field
+67.3
Base HFA
+62.5
Divisional Adj
-28.2
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
+21.8
Time Adj
+11.2
Net QB Adjustment
-3.2
Home QB Adjustment
-8.3
Away QB Adjustment
-5.0
Market Regression
-15.8
Final Difference
-124.8
Model Spread
+5.0
Quarterbacks
M. Schaub
Proj. Value
-1.0
Team Elo Adj
-5.0
A. Luck
Proj. Value
+2.7
Team Elo Adj
-8.3
Team Matchup Ranks
Texans Offense vs Colts Defense
Total
Points / Game
11
21
Yards / Game
6
27
Passing Yards / Game
20
10
Rushing Yards / Game
8
29
EPA
EPA / Play
11
26
EPA / Pass
9
27
EPA / Rush
14
30
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
26
9
Interceptions / Game
11
22
Fumbles / Game
1
30
Turnover EPA / Game
28
7
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
18
15
4th Down Efficiency
10
9
RZ Efficiency
14
8
Colts Offense vs Texans Defense
Total
Points / Game
20
9
Yards / Game
10
7
Passing Yards / Game
5
26
Rushing Yards / Game
18
6
EPA
EPA / Play
16
6
EPA / Pass
17
4
EPA / Rush
11
7
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
9
28
Interceptions / Game
26
16
Fumbles / Game
11
8
Turnover EPA / Game
7
23
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
7
2
4th Down Efficiency
2
3
RZ Efficiency
21
10
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Texans
7-3
SU
5-5
ATS
5-5
O/U
Colts
8-2
SU
8-2
ATS
3-7
O/U