HOUTexans
9-7
23
TBD
Lucas Oil Stadium
70°F
019
INDColts
9-7
TBD
Lucas Oil Stadium
70°F
0Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Texans
7
7
3
6
23
Colts
3
3
8
3
17
Spread
-1.5
Total
UNDER
47.5
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
306
362
Total Plays
56
63
Yards / Play
5.5
5.7
EPA / Play
+0.09
-0.02
Passing Yards
246
135
Comp/Att
20/26(77%)
13/25(52%)
Yards / Pass
9.5
5.4
EPA / Pass
+0.46
-0.14
Rushing Yards
60
227
Rush Attempts
28
37
Yards / Rush
2.1
6.1
EPA / Rush
-0.19
+0.08
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
16
21
Passing 1st downs
10
6
Rushing 1st downs
5
11
Penalty 1st downs
1
4
3rd Down %
38%
9%
3rd Down Conversions
5
1
3rd Down Attempts
13
11
Red Zone %
100%
0%
Red Zone Conversions
2
--
Red Zone Attempts
2
3
Negative Plays
Turnovers
0
1
Interceptions
0
0
Fumbles
0
1
Turnover EPA
--
-0.03
Sacks
2
1
Sack Yards
-18
-8
Sack EPA
-2.85
-1.66
Penalties
11
3
Penalty Yards
69
14
Penalty EPA
-9.79
-3.73
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
HOUTexansFavored
Opening
+2.5
Current
-1.5
Model
-1.5
Win Probability
Market53.6%
Model53.6%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
-36
Home nfelo
1,432
Away nfelo
1,462
Home Field
+17.1
Base HFA
+46.1
Divisional Adj
-20.8
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
--
Time Adj
-8.3
Net QB Adjustment
-22.6
Home QB Adjustment
+1.3
Away QB Adjustment
+24.0
Market Regression
-24.0
Final Difference
-25.1
Model Spread
+1.5
Quarterbacks
C. Stroud
Proj. Value
-1.9
Team Elo Adj
+24.0
G. Minshew
Proj. Value
-1.6
Team Elo Adj
+1.3
Team Matchup Ranks
Texans Offense vs Colts Defense
Total
Points / Game
13
28
Yards / Game
15
24
Passing Yards / Game
21
25
Rushing Yards / Game
28
24
EPA
EPA / Play
14
19
EPA / Pass
11
15
EPA / Rush
27
20
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
24
18
Interceptions / Game
1
14
Fumbles / Game
13
8
Turnover EPA / Game
32
15
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
20
11
4th Down Efficiency
31
30
RZ Efficiency
16
16
Colts Offense vs Texans Defense
Total
Points / Game
11
11
Yards / Game
14
15
Passing Yards / Game
14
6
Rushing Yards / Game
10
8
EPA
EPA / Play
17
13
EPA / Pass
16
16
EPA / Rush
21
9
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
29
15
Interceptions / Game
6
15
Fumbles / Game
16
25
Turnover EPA / Game
19
13
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
26
6
4th Down Efficiency
16
18
RZ Efficiency
23
15
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Texans
6-4
SU
4-6
ATS
4-6
O/U
Colts
6-4
SU
6-4
ATS
7-3
O/U