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  1. nfelo...
  2. predictions...
  3. texans @ colts week 18, 2023

Game Summary

Spread
Total

Model

Quarterbacks

Matchup

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HOU logo
HOUTexans
9-7
23
TBD
Lucas Oil Stadium
70°F
0
19
INDColts
9-7
IND logo
TBD
Lucas Oil Stadium
70°F
0

Game Summary

Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Texans
7
7
3
6
23
Colts
3
3
8
3
17

Spread

HOU logo
-1.5

Total

UNDER
47.5

Game Statistics

General
Texans logo
Colts logo
Total Yards
306
362
Total Plays
56
63
Yards / Play
5.5
5.7
EPA / Play
+0.09
-0.02
Passing Yards
246
135
Comp/Att
20/26(77%)
13/25(52%)
Yards / Pass
9.5
5.4
EPA / Pass
+0.46
-0.14
Rushing Yards
60
227
Rush Attempts
28
37
Yards / Rush
2.1
6.1
EPA / Rush
-0.19
+0.08
Downs & Conversions
Texans logo
Colts logo
1st Downs
16
21
Passing 1st downs
10
6
Rushing 1st downs
5
11
Penalty 1st downs
1
4
3rd Down %
38%
9%
3rd Down Conversions
5
1
3rd Down Attempts
13
11
Red Zone %
100%
0%
Red Zone Conversions
2
--
Red Zone Attempts
2
3
Negative Plays
Texans logo
Colts logo
Turnovers
0
1
Interceptions
0
0
Fumbles
0
1
Turnover EPA
--
-0.03
Sacks
2
1
Sack Yards
-18
-8
Sack EPA
-2.85
-1.66
Penalties
11
3
Penalty Yards
69
14
Penalty EPA
-9.79
-3.73

Game Preview

nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game

Model

Projected Winner
HOU logo
HOUTexansFavored
Opening
+2.5
Current
-1.5
Model
-1.5

Win Probability

Market53.6%
Model53.6%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
-36
Home nfelo
1,430
Away nfelo
1,460
Home Field
+17.2
Base HFA
+46.5
Divisional Adj
-21.0
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
--
Time Adj
-8.3
Net QB Adjustment
-22.8
Home QB Adjustment
+1.8
Away QB Adjustment
+24.7
Market Regression
-23.9
Final Difference
-25.1
Model Spread
+1.5

Quarterbacks

C. Stroud headshot

C. Stroud

Proj. Value
-0.5
Team Elo Adj
+24.7
Value
Ptile
10/08
0.3
52
10/15
-2.8
30
10/29
-0.5
46
11/05
12.9
99
11/12
4.5
78
11/19
-1.8
38
11/26
6.9
90
12/03
-3.0
29
12/10
-8.7
6
12/31
2.1
64
G. Minshew headshot

G. Minshew

Proj. Value
-1.9
Team Elo Adj
+1.8
Value
Ptile
10/22
6.9
90
10/29
-1.4
40
11/05
-2.2
34
11/12
-2.3
33
11/26
-2.8
31
12/03
2.1
64
12/10
-1.9
36
12/16
1.8
61
12/24
-9.3
4
12/31
0.1
50

Team Matchup Ranks

Texans Offense vs Colts Defense
Texans logo
Colts logo

Total

Points / Game
13
28
Yards / Game
15
24
Passing Yards / Game
21
25
Rushing Yards / Game
28
24

EPA

EPA / Play
14
19
EPA / Pass
11
15
EPA / Rush
27
20

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
24
18
Interceptions / Game
1
14
Fumbles / Game
13
8
Turnover EPA / Game
32
15

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
20
11
4th Down Efficiency
31
30
RZ Efficiency
16
16
Colts Offense vs Texans Defense
Colts logo
Texans logo

Total

Points / Game
11
11
Yards / Game
14
15
Passing Yards / Game
14
6
Rushing Yards / Game
10
8

EPA

EPA / Play
17
13
EPA / Pass
16
16
EPA / Rush
21
9

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
29
15
Interceptions / Game
6
15
Fumbles / Game
16
25
Turnover EPA / Game
19
13

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
26
6
4th Down Efficiency
16
18
RZ Efficiency
23
15

Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)

HOU logo

Texans

6-4
SU
4-6
ATS
4-6
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
10/29
-2
L
L
U
11/05
2
W
L
O
11/12
3
W
W
O
11/19
5
W
L
U
11/26
-3
L
L
U
12/03
5
W
W
U
12/10
-24
L
L
O
12/17
3
W
W
U
12/24
-14
L
L
O
12/31
23
W
W
U
IND logo

Colts

6-4
SU
6-4
ATS
7-3
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
10/22
-1
L
W
O
10/29
-11
L
L
O
11/05
14
W
W
U
11/12
4
W
W
U
11/26
7
W
W
O
12/03
3
W
W
O
12/10
-20
L
L
O
12/16
17
W
W
O
12/24
-19
L
L
U
12/31
3
W
L
O