HOUTexans
1-0
30
TBD
FedExField
85°F
6 mph
27
WASCommanders
1-0
TBD
FedExField
85°F
6 mph
Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
OT
Total
Texans
0
7
10
10
3
30
Commanders
6
14
7
0
0
27
Spread
3
P
Total
OVER
43
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
526
421
Total Plays
81
58
Yards / Play
6.5
7.3
EPA / Play
+0.19
+0.16
Passing Yards
468
403
Comp/Att
38/52(73%)
28/38(74%)
Yards / Pass
9.0
10.6
EPA / Pass
+0.38
+0.47
Rushing Yards
58
18
Rush Attempts
24
17
Yards / Rush
2.4
1.1
EPA / Rush
-0.01
-0.21
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
29
21
Passing 1st downs
23
17
Rushing 1st downs
6
3
Penalty 1st downs
--
1
3rd Down %
43%
20%
3rd Down Conversions
6
2
3rd Down Attempts
14
10
Red Zone %
67%
50%
Red Zone Conversions
2
2
Red Zone Attempts
3
4
Negative Plays
Turnovers
1
0
Interceptions
1
0
Fumbles
0
0
Turnover EPA
-3.35
--
Sacks
5
3
Sack Yards
-29
-23
Sack EPA
-5.60
-1.69
Penalties
5
7
Penalty Yards
45
58
Penalty EPA
-3.52
-1.40
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
HOUTexansFavored
Opening
-2.5
Current
-3.0
Model
N/A
Win Probability
Market59.7%
Model50.5%
Spread Pick
Commanders+3.0
Expected Value
+8.9%
Cover Probability
53.8%
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+55
Home nfelo
1,516
Away nfelo
1,515
Home Field
+51.3
Base HFA
+62.5
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
--
Time Adj
-11.2
Net QB Adjustment
+2.1
Home QB Adjustment
+4.0
Away QB Adjustment
+1.8
Market Regression
-12.1
Final Difference
-3.5
Model Spread
--
Quarterbacks
M. Schaub
Proj. Value
-1.0
Team Elo Adj
+1.8
D. McNabb
Proj. Value
-1.7
Team Elo Adj
+4.0
Team Matchup Ranks
Texans Offense vs Commanders Defense
Total
Points / Game
11
22
Yards / Game
3
31
Passing Yards / Game
13
31
Rushing Yards / Game
7
25
EPA
EPA / Play
2
12
EPA / Pass
5
26
EPA / Rush
4
25
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
9
5
Interceptions / Game
7
19
Fumbles / Game
3
10
Turnover EPA / Game
29
25
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
9
8
4th Down Efficiency
14
29
RZ Efficiency
5
13
Commanders Offense vs Texans Defense
Total
Points / Game
25
29
Yards / Game
17
29
Passing Yards / Game
4
30
Rushing Yards / Game
30
14
EPA
EPA / Play
28
32
EPA / Pass
25
32
EPA / Rush
19
27
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
6
21
Interceptions / Game
21
23
Fumbles / Game
22
32
Turnover EPA / Game
9
3
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
31
20
4th Down Efficiency
12
32
RZ Efficiency
20
31
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Texans
6-4
SU
5-5
ATS
3-6-1
O/U
Commanders
3-7
SU
6-3-1
ATS
7-3
O/U