nfelo logo

nfelo

Live
Platform
Kalshi
$10

$10 Bonus

Receive $10 when you sign up with Kalshi prediction market

Affiliate Disclosure: Some of the links and placements on this site may be affiliate links or paid partnerships. This means nfelo may receive compensation when you click these links or sign up for a partner’s service.

Offer Disclosure: Offers are for informational purposes only. Age, location, and other restrictions may apply. nfelo does not validate offer availability. See provider for full terms.

  1. nfelo...
  2. predictions...
  3. texans @ commanders week 2, 2010

Game Summary

Spread
Total

Model

Quarterbacks

Matchup

nfelo logo

nfelo

Advanced NFL analytics platform powered by the nflfastR dataset and custom open source models.

Analysis
Research and insights that power the nfelo model
About
How nfelo works

Predictions

  • Games
    Game previews and model projections
  • Confidence Pool
    Weekly confidence pool picks
  • Betting Card
    +EV NFL Sides
  • Model Performance
    Historic nfelo model performance

Teams

  • Power Ratings
    Team Power Ratings
  • EPA Tiers
    Offensive and Defensive EPA Tiers
  • Tendencies
    Pass rates, formations, and play styles
  • Strength of Schedule
    Projected and realized opponent quality
  • Win Totals
    Win total projections and results

QBs

  • QB Rankings
    QB Elo, EPA, Ratings, and Stats
  • Era Adjusted Elo
    QB Elo model adjusted for era

Tools & More

  • Receiving Leaders
    Advanced stats for receivers
  • Head Coaches
    Stats and ATS Records for Coaches
  • HFA Tracker
    Home Field Advantage for every team
  • NFL Odds Calculator
    Calculate and convert betting odds
  • Cover Probability
    Calculate EV for spreads
  • Sportsbook Hold
    Calculate the hold for odds
  • Hedge Calculator
    Calculate strategy optimal hedge size
  • Parlay Payout Calculator
    Calculate parlay payouts
  • QB Passer Rating Calculator
    Calculate passer rating from stats

© 2026 nfelo. All rights reserved.

Entertainment purposes only. The information contained on nfeloapp.com is not intended to be, and shall not be construed as, gambling advice, financial advice, or any other professional advice or service. nfeloapp.com and its owners assume no responsibility for errors or omissions. Please gamble responsibly.

HOU logo
HOUTexans
1-0
30
TBD
FedExField
85°F
6 mph
27
WASCommanders
1-0
WAS logo
TBD
FedExField
85°F
6 mph

Game Summary

Scoring
1
2
3
4
OT
Total
Texans
0
7
10
10
3
30
Commanders
6
14
7
0
0
27

Spread

HOU logo
WAS logo
3
P

Total

OVER
43

Game Statistics

General
Texans logo
Commanders logo
Total Yards
526
421
Total Plays
81
58
Yards / Play
6.5
7.3
EPA / Play
+0.19
+0.16
Passing Yards
468
403
Comp/Att
38/52(73%)
28/38(74%)
Yards / Pass
9.0
10.6
EPA / Pass
+0.38
+0.47
Rushing Yards
58
18
Rush Attempts
24
17
Yards / Rush
2.4
1.1
EPA / Rush
-0.01
-0.21
Downs & Conversions
Texans logo
Commanders logo
1st Downs
29
21
Passing 1st downs
23
17
Rushing 1st downs
6
3
Penalty 1st downs
--
1
3rd Down %
43%
20%
3rd Down Conversions
6
2
3rd Down Attempts
14
10
Red Zone %
67%
50%
Red Zone Conversions
2
2
Red Zone Attempts
3
4
Negative Plays
Texans logo
Commanders logo
Turnovers
1
0
Interceptions
1
0
Fumbles
0
0
Turnover EPA
-3.35
--
Sacks
5
3
Sack Yards
-29
-23
Sack EPA
-5.60
-1.69
Penalties
5
7
Penalty Yards
45
58
Penalty EPA
-3.52
-1.40

Game Preview

nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game

Model

Projected Winner
HOU logo
HOUTexansFavored
Opening
-2.5
Current
-3.0
Model
N/A

Win Probability

Market59.7%
Model50.4%
Spread Pick
WAS logo
Commanders+3.0
Projected +EV
Expected Value
+8.9%
Cover Probability
53.8%
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+57
Home nfelo
1,515
Away nfelo
1,511
Home Field
+51.3
Base HFA
+62.5
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
--
Time Adj
-11.2
Net QB Adjustment
+2.1
Home QB Adjustment
+4.0
Away QB Adjustment
+1.8
Market Regression
-12.1
Final Difference
-2.6
Model Spread
--

Quarterbacks

M. Schaub headshot

M. Schaub

Proj. Value
-1.0
Team Elo Adj
+1.8
Value
Ptile
11/01
0.2
51
11/08
4.4
79
11/23
1.9
63
11/29
3.1
70
12/06
-1.2
43
12/13
7.4
90
12/20
7.0
89
12/27
3.0
69
01/03
3.6
73
09/12
-6.1
12
D. McNabb headshot

D. McNabb

Proj. Value
-1.7
Team Elo Adj
+4.0
Value
Ptile
11/15
7.5
91
11/22
1.0
56
11/29
-0.2
48
12/06
0.1
49
12/13
2.6
66
12/20
2.8
68
12/27
4.1
76
01/03
-3.2
30
01/09
-3.7
26
09/12
-1.9
37

Team Matchup Ranks

Texans Offense vs Commanders Defense
Texans logo
Commanders logo

Total

Points / Game
11
22
Yards / Game
3
31
Passing Yards / Game
13
31
Rushing Yards / Game
7
25

EPA

EPA / Play
2
12
EPA / Pass
5
26
EPA / Rush
4
25

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
9
5
Interceptions / Game
7
19
Fumbles / Game
3
10
Turnover EPA / Game
29
25

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
9
8
4th Down Efficiency
14
29
RZ Efficiency
5
13
Commanders Offense vs Texans Defense
Commanders logo
Texans logo

Total

Points / Game
25
29
Yards / Game
17
29
Passing Yards / Game
4
30
Rushing Yards / Game
30
14

EPA

EPA / Play
28
32
EPA / Pass
25
32
EPA / Rush
19
27

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
6
21
Interceptions / Game
21
23
Fumbles / Game
22
32
Turnover EPA / Game
9
3

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
31
20
4th Down Efficiency
12
32
RZ Efficiency
20
31

Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)

HOU logo

Texans

6-4
SU
5-5
ATS
3-6-1
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
11/01
21
W
W
U
11/08
-3
L
W
U
11/23
-3
L
L
U
11/29
-8
L
L
O
12/06
-5
L
L
U
12/13
27
W
W
U
12/20
3
W
L
U
12/27
7
W
W
P
01/03
7
W
L
O
09/12
10
W
W
O
WAS logo

Commanders

3-7
SU
6-3-1
ATS
7-3
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
11/08
-14
L
L
O
11/15
10
W
W
O
11/22
-1
L
W
U
11/29
-3
L
W
O
12/06
-3
L
W
O
12/13
21
W
W
O
12/21
-33
L
L
O
12/27
-17
L
L
U
01/03
-3
L
P
O
09/12
6
W
W
U