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  1. nfelo...
  2. predictions...
  3. texans @ cowboys week 11, 2024

Game Summary

Spread
Total

Model

Quarterbacks

Matchup

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nfelo

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    +EV NFL Sides
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    Team Power Ratings
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    Offensive and Defensive EPA Tiers
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    Projected and realized opponent quality
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    Win total projections and results

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HOU logo
HOUTexans
6-4
34
TBD
AT&T Stadium
70°F
0
10
DALCowboys
3-6
DAL logo
TBD
AT&T Stadium
70°F
0

Game Summary

Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Texans
14
3
3
8
28
Cowboys
0
10
0
0
10

Spread

HOU logo
-7

Total

OVER
41.5

Game Statistics

General
Texans logo
Cowboys logo
Total Yards
391
388
Total Plays
60
79
Yards / Play
6.5
4.9
EPA / Play
+0.15
-0.28
Passing Yards
250
324
Comp/Att
23/34(68%)
33/56(59%)
Yards / Pass
7.4
5.8
EPA / Pass
+0.19
-0.29
Rushing Yards
141
64
Rush Attempts
25
18
Yards / Rush
5.6
3.6
EPA / Rush
+0.21
-0.43
Downs & Conversions
Texans logo
Cowboys logo
1st Downs
21
24
Passing 1st downs
13
17
Rushing 1st downs
6
3
Penalty 1st downs
2
4
3rd Down %
33%
33%
3rd Down Conversions
4
5
3rd Down Attempts
12
15
Red Zone %
50%
0%
Red Zone Conversions
2
--
Red Zone Attempts
4
1
Negative Plays
Texans logo
Cowboys logo
Turnovers
1
2
Interceptions
1
1
Fumbles
0
1
Turnover EPA
-3.85
-12.80
Sacks
1
5
Sack Yards
-7
-34
Sack EPA
-1.95
-17.78
Penalties
9
9
Penalty Yards
69
66
Penalty EPA
-9.07
-8.90

Game Preview

nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game

Model

Projected Winner
HOU logo
HOUTexansFavored
Opening
-7.0
Current
-7.0
Model
-4.0

Win Probability

Market73.2%
Model65.8%
Spread Pick
DAL logo
Cowboys+7.0
Projected +EV
Expected Value
+12.0%
Cover Probability
55.6%
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
-64
Home nfelo
1,494
Away nfelo
1,532
Home Field
+41.5
Base HFA
+41.5
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
--
Time Adj
--
Net QB Adjustment
-66.5
Home QB Adjustment
-87.1
Away QB Adjustment
-20.6
Market Regression
--
Final Difference
-113.7
Model Spread
+4.0

Quarterbacks

C. Stroud headshot

C. Stroud

Proj. Value
-0.5
Team Elo Adj
-20.6
Value
Ptile
09/08
0.9
55
09/15
-0.9
43
09/22
-6.2
11
09/29
4.8
79
10/06
6.0
84
10/13
0.5
52
10/20
-8.9
4
10/27
-0.2
48
10/31
-8.2
5
11/10
-7.3
8
C. Rush headshot

C. Rush

Proj. Value
-2.2
Team Elo Adj
-87.1
Value
Ptile
10/31
0.4
56
09/18
0.3
55
09/26
1.5
64
10/02
0.2
54
10/09
-6.8
10
10/16
-7.6
7
11/10
-6.8
9

Team Matchup Ranks

Texans Offense vs Cowboys Defense
Texans logo
Cowboys logo

Total

Points / Game
18
31
Yards / Game
17
28
Passing Yards / Game
11
19
Rushing Yards / Game
13
29

EPA

EPA / Play
22
27
EPA / Pass
22
15
EPA / Rush
26
31

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
29
19
Interceptions / Game
16
13
Fumbles / Game
16
11
Turnover EPA / Game
21
18

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
17
9
4th Down Efficiency
10
27
RZ Efficiency
28
32
Cowboys Offense vs Texans Defense
Cowboys logo
Texans logo

Total

Points / Game
21
10
Yards / Game
16
2
Passing Yards / Game
6
11
Rushing Yards / Game
27
9

EPA

EPA / Play
25
6
EPA / Pass
29
3
EPA / Rush
30
6

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
30
3
Interceptions / Game
21
2
Fumbles / Game
32
17
Turnover EPA / Game
5
29

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
23
3
4th Down Efficiency
32
23
RZ Efficiency
31
21

Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)

HOU logo

Texans

6-4
SU
4-5-1
ATS
2-8
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
09/08
2
W
L
O
09/15
6
W
P
U
09/22
-27
L
L
U
09/29
4
W
L
U
10/06
3
W
W
U
10/13
20
W
W
O
10/20
-2
L
W
U
10/27
3
W
L
U
10/31
-8
L
L
U
11/10
-3
L
W
U
DAL logo

Cowboys

3-7
SU
2-8
ATS
6-4
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
01/14
-16
L
L
O
09/08
16
W
W
O
09/15
-25
L
L
O
09/22
-3
L
L
O
09/26
5
W
L
U
10/06
3
W
W
U
10/13
-38
L
L
O
10/27
-6
L
L
O
11/03
-6
L
L
U
11/10
-28
L
L
U