HOUTexans
6-4
34
TBD
AT&T Stadium
70°F
010
DALCowboys
3-6
TBD
AT&T Stadium
70°F
0Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Texans
14
3
3
8
28
Cowboys
0
10
0
0
10
Spread
-7
Total
OVER
41.5
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
391
388
Total Plays
60
79
Yards / Play
6.5
4.9
EPA / Play
+0.15
-0.28
Passing Yards
250
324
Comp/Att
23/34(68%)
33/56(59%)
Yards / Pass
7.4
5.8
EPA / Pass
+0.19
-0.29
Rushing Yards
141
64
Rush Attempts
25
18
Yards / Rush
5.6
3.6
EPA / Rush
+0.21
-0.43
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
21
24
Passing 1st downs
13
17
Rushing 1st downs
6
3
Penalty 1st downs
2
4
3rd Down %
33%
33%
3rd Down Conversions
4
5
3rd Down Attempts
12
15
Red Zone %
50%
0%
Red Zone Conversions
2
--
Red Zone Attempts
4
1
Negative Plays
Turnovers
1
2
Interceptions
1
1
Fumbles
0
1
Turnover EPA
-3.85
-12.80
Sacks
1
5
Sack Yards
-7
-34
Sack EPA
-1.95
-17.78
Penalties
9
9
Penalty Yards
69
66
Penalty EPA
-9.07
-8.90
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
HOUTexansFavored
Opening
-7.0
Current
-7.0
Model
-4.0
Win Probability
Market73.2%
Model65.7%
Spread Pick
Cowboys+7.0
Expected Value
+12.0%
Cover Probability
55.6%
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
-63
Home nfelo
1,495
Away nfelo
1,533
Home Field
+41.6
Base HFA
+41.6
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
--
Time Adj
--
Net QB Adjustment
-66.3
Home QB Adjustment
-86.9
Away QB Adjustment
-20.6
Market Regression
--
Final Difference
-113.2
Model Spread
+4.0
Quarterbacks
C. Stroud
Proj. Value
-1.9
Team Elo Adj
-20.6
C. Rush
Proj. Value
-1.8
Team Elo Adj
-86.9
Team Matchup Ranks
Texans Offense vs Cowboys Defense
Total
Points / Game
18
31
Yards / Game
17
28
Passing Yards / Game
11
19
Rushing Yards / Game
13
29
EPA
EPA / Play
22
27
EPA / Pass
22
15
EPA / Rush
26
31
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
29
19
Interceptions / Game
16
13
Fumbles / Game
16
11
Turnover EPA / Game
21
18
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
17
9
4th Down Efficiency
10
27
RZ Efficiency
28
32
Cowboys Offense vs Texans Defense
Total
Points / Game
21
10
Yards / Game
16
2
Passing Yards / Game
6
11
Rushing Yards / Game
27
9
EPA
EPA / Play
25
6
EPA / Pass
29
3
EPA / Rush
30
6
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
30
3
Interceptions / Game
21
2
Fumbles / Game
32
17
Turnover EPA / Game
5
29
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
23
3
4th Down Efficiency
32
23
RZ Efficiency
31
21
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Texans
6-4
SU
4-5-1
ATS
2-8
O/U
Cowboys
3-7
SU
2-8
ATS
6-4
O/U