HOUTexans
1-10
23
TBD
AT&T Stadium
70°F
027
DALCowboys
9-3
TBD
AT&T Stadium
70°F
0Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Texans
10
10
3
0
23
Cowboys
7
10
0
10
27
Spread
+17
Total
OVER
44.5
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
327
404
Total Plays
64
71
Yards / Play
5.1
5.7
EPA / Play
-0.04
-0.01
Passing Yards
--
277
Comp/Att
20/27(74%)
24/39(62%)
Yards / Pass
--
7.1
EPA / Pass
+0.27
-0.09
Rushing Yards
114
127
Rush Attempts
37
31
Yards / Rush
3.1
4.1
EPA / Rush
-0.52
+0.06
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
16
21
Passing 1st downs
10
11
Rushing 1st downs
6
10
Penalty 1st downs
--
--
3rd Down %
47%
53%
3rd Down Conversions
7
8
3rd Down Attempts
15
15
Red Zone %
50%
60%
Red Zone Conversions
1
3
Red Zone Attempts
2
5
Negative Plays
Turnovers
3
2
Interceptions
1
2
Fumbles
2
0
Turnover EPA
-0.69
-9.73
Sacks
--
1
Sack Yards
--
-7
Sack EPA
--
-1.60
Penalties
4
3
Penalty Yards
25
10
Penalty EPA
-1.81
-0.77
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
DALCowboysFavored
Opening
-17.0
Current
-17.0
Model
-17.0
Win Probability
Market90.9%
Model90.9%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+379
Home nfelo
1,627
Away nfelo
1,322
Home Field
+40.3
Base HFA
+40.3
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
--
Time Adj
--
Net QB Adjustment
+34.4
Home QB Adjustment
+17.6
Away QB Adjustment
-16.8
Market Regression
--
Final Difference
399.8
Model Spread
-17.0
Quarterbacks
D. Mills
Proj. Value
-1.6
Team Elo Adj
-16.8
R. Prescott
Proj. Value
+0.6
Team Elo Adj
+17.6
Team Matchup Ranks
Texans Offense vs Cowboys Defense
Total
Points / Game
30
6
Yards / Game
31
13
Passing Yards / Game
22
15
Rushing Yards / Game
31
22
EPA
EPA / Play
31
3
EPA / Pass
31
4
EPA / Rush
31
4
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
14
29
Interceptions / Game
31
10
Fumbles / Game
20
1
Turnover EPA / Game
3
30
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
31
18
4th Down Efficiency
16
17
RZ Efficiency
28
5
Cowboys Offense vs Texans Defense
Total
Points / Game
4
27
Yards / Game
10
30
Passing Yards / Game
23
17
Rushing Yards / Game
9
32
EPA
EPA / Play
9
12
EPA / Pass
9
13
EPA / Rush
12
23
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
29
18
Interceptions / Game
30
7
Fumbles / Game
3
10
Turnover EPA / Game
20
28
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
5
14
4th Down Efficiency
5
26
RZ Efficiency
1
19
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Texans
1-9
SU
2-7-1
ATS
4-6
O/U
Cowboys
8-2
SU
7-3
ATS
6-4
O/U