HOUTexans
1-0
23
TBD
Hard Rock Stadium
87°F
15 mph
13
MIADolphins
0-1
TBD
Hard Rock Stadium
87°F
15 mph
Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Texans
6
10
0
7
23
Dolphins
3
0
7
3
13
Spread
-3
Total
UNDER
46.5
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
345
306
Total Plays
68
60
Yards / Play
5.1
5.1
EPA / Play
+0.02
-0.20
Passing Yards
207
153
Comp/Att
21/29(72%)
12/30(40%)
Yards / Pass
7.1
5.1
EPA / Pass
+0.19
-0.18
Rushing Yards
138
153
Rush Attempts
36
28
Yards / Rush
3.8
5.5
EPA / Rush
-0.18
-0.15
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
19
18
Passing 1st downs
10
11
Rushing 1st downs
9
5
Penalty 1st downs
--
2
3rd Down %
33%
33%
3rd Down Conversions
5
4
3rd Down Attempts
15
12
Red Zone %
20%
25%
Red Zone Conversions
1
1
Red Zone Attempts
5
4
Negative Plays
Turnovers
0
2
Interceptions
0
1
Fumbles
0
1
Turnover EPA
--
-9.01
Sacks
3
2
Sack Yards
-23
-17
Sack EPA
-3.66
-2.62
Penalties
4
3
Penalty Yards
76
--
Penalty EPA
-8.46
--
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
HOUTexansFavored
Opening
-3.0
Current
-3.0
Model
-3.0
Win Probability
Market59.7%
Model59.7%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
-43
Home nfelo
1,491
Away nfelo
1,590
Home Field
+51.3
Base HFA
+62.5
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
--
Time Adj
-11.2
Net QB Adjustment
+4.6
Home QB Adjustment
+6.6
Away QB Adjustment
+2.0
Market Regression
--
Final Difference
-68.3
Model Spread
+3.0
Quarterbacks
M. Schaub
Proj. Value
-1.0
Team Elo Adj
+2.0
C. Henne
Proj. Value
-2.5
Team Elo Adj
+6.6
Team Matchup Ranks
Texans Offense vs Dolphins Defense
Total
Points / Game
11
6
Yards / Game
13
15
Passing Yards / Game
25
30
Rushing Yards / Game
2
4
EPA
EPA / Play
14
11
EPA / Pass
10
14
EPA / Rush
11
9
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
29
3
Interceptions / Game
4
17
Fumbles / Game
20
32
Turnover EPA / Game
20
8
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
9
4
4th Down Efficiency
30
23
RZ Efficiency
22
5
Dolphins Offense vs Texans Defense
Total
Points / Game
20
4
Yards / Game
23
2
Passing Yards / Game
22
11
Rushing Yards / Game
10
2
EPA
EPA / Play
18
2
EPA / Pass
17
1
EPA / Rush
20
4
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
21
24
Interceptions / Game
9
12
Fumbles / Game
27
22
Turnover EPA / Game
21
16
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
26
13
4th Down Efficiency
19
10
RZ Efficiency
24
11
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Texans
3-7
SU
4-6
ATS
7-3
O/U
Dolphins
3-7
SU
3-7
ATS
5-5
O/U