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  1. nfelo...
  2. predictions...
  3. texans @ dolphins week 16, 2009

Game Summary

Spread
Total

Model

Quarterbacks

Matchup

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HOU logo
HOUTexans
7-7
27
TBD
Hard Rock Stadium
75°F
6 mph
20
MIADolphins
7-7
MIA logo
TBD
Hard Rock Stadium
75°F
6 mph

Game Summary

Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Texans
10
17
0
0
27
Dolphins
0
3
7
10
20

Spread

HOU logo
+1

Total

PUSH
47
P

Game Statistics

General
Texans logo
Dolphins logo
Total Yards
406
363
Total Plays
64
74
Yards / Play
6.3
4.9
EPA / Play
+0.21
+0.04
Passing Yards
280
303
Comp/Att
20/31(65%)
35/55(64%)
Yards / Pass
9.0
5.5
EPA / Pass
+0.30
-0.05
Rushing Yards
126
60
Rush Attempts
32
16
Yards / Rush
3.9
3.8
EPA / Rush
+0.02
+0.35
Downs & Conversions
Texans logo
Dolphins logo
1st Downs
21
23
Passing 1st downs
14
14
Rushing 1st downs
7
8
Penalty 1st downs
--
1
3rd Down %
36%
50%
3rd Down Conversions
4
9
3rd Down Attempts
11
18
Red Zone %
67%
67%
Red Zone Conversions
2
2
Red Zone Attempts
3
3
Negative Plays
Texans logo
Dolphins logo
Turnovers
1
1
Interceptions
1
1
Fumbles
0
0
Turnover EPA
-5.93
-5.05
Sacks
1
3
Sack Yards
-6
-19
Sack EPA
-1.36
-3.47
Penalties
3
4
Penalty Yards
--
--
Penalty EPA
--
--

Game Preview

nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game

Model

Projected Winner
MIA logo
MIADolphinsFavored
Opening
-2.5
Current
-1.0
Model
-1.5

Win Probability

Market52.2%
Model53.4%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+57
Home nfelo
1,536
Away nfelo
1,516
Home Field
+73.7
Base HFA
+62.5
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
--
Time Adj
+11.2
Net QB Adjustment
-37.4
Home QB Adjustment
-14.7
Away QB Adjustment
+22.7
Market Regression
-18.8
Final Difference
23.8
Model Spread
-1.5

Quarterbacks

M. Schaub headshot

M. Schaub

Proj. Value
-1.0
Team Elo Adj
+22.7
Value
Ptile
10/11
8.0
92
10/18
8.8
94
10/25
4.1
76
11/01
0.2
51
11/08
4.4
79
11/23
1.9
63
11/29
3.1
70
12/06
-1.2
43
12/13
7.4
90
12/20
7.0
89
C. Henne headshot

C. Henne

Proj. Value
-2.5
Team Elo Adj
-14.7
Value
Ptile
10/12
7.2
90
10/25
-5.7
16
11/01
-6.1
14
11/08
-1.2
42
11/15
-1.2
42
11/19
1.2
57
11/29
-5.2
19
12/06
2.9
69
12/13
-0.6
46
12/20
0.1
50

Team Matchup Ranks

Texans Offense vs Dolphins Defense
Texans logo
Dolphins logo

Total

Points / Game
10
25
Yards / Game
5
21
Passing Yards / Game
10
29
Rushing Yards / Game
30
17

EPA

EPA / Play
9
28
EPA / Pass
6
21
EPA / Rush
29
24

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
5
14
Interceptions / Game
18
16
Fumbles / Game
25
30
Turnover EPA / Game
10
6

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
15
5
4th Down Efficiency
4
22
RZ Efficiency
12
8
Dolphins Offense vs Texans Defense
Dolphins logo
Texans logo

Total

Points / Game
14
16
Yards / Game
17
14
Passing Yards / Game
23
16
Rushing Yards / Game
5
10

EPA

EPA / Play
12
16
EPA / Pass
19
11
EPA / Rush
3
13

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
27
27
Interceptions / Game
24
21
Fumbles / Game
8
20
Turnover EPA / Game
8
19

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
1
20
4th Down Efficiency
2
7
RZ Efficiency
5
30

Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)

HOU logo

Texans

5-5
SU
4-5-1
ATS
2-8
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
10/11
-7
L
L
U
10/18
11
W
W
U
10/25
3
W
P
O
11/01
21
W
W
U
11/08
-3
L
W
U
11/23
-3
L
L
U
11/29
-8
L
L
O
12/06
-5
L
L
U
12/13
27
W
W
U
12/20
3
W
L
U
MIA logo

Dolphins

6-4
SU
7-3
ATS
6-4
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
10/12
4
W
W
O
10/25
-12
L
L
O
11/01
5
W
W
O
11/08
-10
L
W
U
11/15
2
W
L
O
11/19
7
W
W
U
11/29
-17
L
L
O
12/06
1
W
W
U
12/13
4
W
W
U
12/20
-3
L
W
O