HOUTexans
7-7
27
TBD
Hard Rock Stadium
75°F
6 mph
20
MIADolphins
7-7
TBD
Hard Rock Stadium
75°F
6 mph
Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Texans
10
17
0
0
27
Dolphins
0
3
7
10
20
Spread
+1
Total
PUSH
47
P
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
406
363
Total Plays
64
74
Yards / Play
6.3
4.9
EPA / Play
+0.21
+0.04
Passing Yards
280
303
Comp/Att
20/31(65%)
35/55(64%)
Yards / Pass
9.0
5.5
EPA / Pass
+0.30
-0.05
Rushing Yards
126
60
Rush Attempts
32
16
Yards / Rush
3.9
3.8
EPA / Rush
+0.02
+0.35
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
21
23
Passing 1st downs
14
14
Rushing 1st downs
7
8
Penalty 1st downs
--
1
3rd Down %
36%
50%
3rd Down Conversions
4
9
3rd Down Attempts
11
18
Red Zone %
67%
67%
Red Zone Conversions
2
2
Red Zone Attempts
3
3
Negative Plays
Turnovers
1
1
Interceptions
1
1
Fumbles
0
0
Turnover EPA
-5.93
-5.05
Sacks
1
3
Sack Yards
-6
-19
Sack EPA
-1.36
-3.47
Penalties
3
4
Penalty Yards
--
--
Penalty EPA
--
--
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
MIADolphinsFavored
Opening
-2.5
Current
-1.0
Model
-1.5
Win Probability
Market52.2%
Model53.5%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+60
Home nfelo
1,537
Away nfelo
1,513
Home Field
+73.7
Base HFA
+62.5
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
--
Time Adj
+11.2
Net QB Adjustment
-37.4
Home QB Adjustment
-14.7
Away QB Adjustment
+22.7
Market Regression
-18.1
Final Difference
24.5
Model Spread
-1.5
Quarterbacks
M. Schaub
Proj. Value
-1.0
Team Elo Adj
+22.7
C. Henne
Proj. Value
-2.5
Team Elo Adj
-14.7
Team Matchup Ranks
Texans Offense vs Dolphins Defense
Total
Points / Game
10
25
Yards / Game
5
21
Passing Yards / Game
10
29
Rushing Yards / Game
30
17
EPA
EPA / Play
9
28
EPA / Pass
6
21
EPA / Rush
29
24
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
5
14
Interceptions / Game
18
16
Fumbles / Game
25
30
Turnover EPA / Game
10
6
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
15
5
4th Down Efficiency
4
22
RZ Efficiency
12
8
Dolphins Offense vs Texans Defense
Total
Points / Game
14
16
Yards / Game
17
14
Passing Yards / Game
23
16
Rushing Yards / Game
5
10
EPA
EPA / Play
12
16
EPA / Pass
19
11
EPA / Rush
3
13
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
27
27
Interceptions / Game
24
21
Fumbles / Game
8
20
Turnover EPA / Game
8
19
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
1
20
4th Down Efficiency
2
7
RZ Efficiency
5
30
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Texans
5-5
SU
4-5-1
ATS
2-8
O/U
Dolphins
6-4
SU
7-3
ATS
6-4
O/U