HOUTexans
4-4
24
TBD
TIAA Bank Stadium
70°F
5 mph
31
JAXJaguars
4-4
TBD
TIAA Bank Stadium
70°F
5 mph
Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Texans
3
0
14
7
24
Jaguars
3
14
0
14
31
Spread
-1
Total
OVER
48
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
395
491
Total Plays
53
69
Yards / Play
7.5
7.1
EPA / Play
+0.25
+0.28
Passing Yards
--
326
Comp/Att
22/32(69%)
24/31(77%)
Yards / Pass
--
10.5
EPA / Pass
+0.52
+0.60
Rushing Yards
81
165
Rush Attempts
21
36
Yards / Rush
3.9
4.6
EPA / Rush
-0.06
+0.19
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
20
29
Passing 1st downs
13
15
Rushing 1st downs
6
12
Penalty 1st downs
1
2
3rd Down %
40%
36%
3rd Down Conversions
4
4
3rd Down Attempts
10
11
Red Zone %
75%
50%
Red Zone Conversions
3
2
Red Zone Attempts
4
4
Negative Plays
Turnovers
1
0
Interceptions
0
0
Fumbles
1
0
Turnover EPA
-0.69
--
Sacks
--
2
Sack Yards
--
-16
Sack EPA
--
-3.31
Penalties
8
8
Penalty Yards
49
62
Penalty EPA
-5.56
-6.48
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
JAXJaguarsFavored
Opening
N/A
Current
-1.0
Model
-1.0
Win Probability
Market52.2%
Model52.2%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+18
Home nfelo
1,407
Away nfelo
1,469
Home Field
+63.4
Base HFA
+62.5
Divisional Adj
-28.2
Home Bye Adj
+17.9
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
--
Time Adj
+11.2
Net QB Adjustment
+17.7
Home QB Adjustment
+7.3
Away QB Adjustment
-10.3
Market Regression
+15.3
Final Difference
15.3
Model Spread
-1.0
Quarterbacks
M. Schaub
Proj. Value
-1.0
Team Elo Adj
-10.3
D. Garrard
Proj. Value
+0.2
Team Elo Adj
+7.3
Team Matchup Ranks
Texans Offense vs Jaguars Defense
Total
Points / Game
11
26
Yards / Game
3
27
Passing Yards / Game
13
16
Rushing Yards / Game
7
22
EPA
EPA / Play
2
30
EPA / Pass
5
31
EPA / Rush
4
30
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
9
13
Interceptions / Game
7
23
Fumbles / Game
3
28
Turnover EPA / Game
29
2
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
9
27
4th Down Efficiency
14
12
RZ Efficiency
5
20
Jaguars Offense vs Texans Defense
Total
Points / Game
17
29
Yards / Game
13
29
Passing Yards / Game
19
30
Rushing Yards / Game
3
14
EPA
EPA / Play
9
32
EPA / Pass
21
32
EPA / Rush
3
27
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
2
21
Interceptions / Game
27
23
Fumbles / Game
9
32
Turnover EPA / Game
10
3
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
13
20
4th Down Efficiency
6
32
RZ Efficiency
2
31
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Texans
6-4
SU
4-6
ATS
6-3-1
O/U
Jaguars
4-6
SU
4-6
ATS
6-4
O/U