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  1. nfelo...
  2. predictions...
  3. texans @ jaguars week 10, 2010

Game Summary

Spread
Total

Model

Quarterbacks

Matchup

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HOU logo
HOUTexans
4-4
24
TBD
TIAA Bank Stadium
70°F
5 mph
31
JAXJaguars
4-4
JAX logo
TBD
TIAA Bank Stadium
70°F
5 mph

Game Summary

Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Texans
3
0
14
7
24
Jaguars
3
14
0
14
31

Spread

JAX logo
-1

Total

OVER
48

Game Statistics

General
Texans logo
Jaguars logo
Total Yards
395
491
Total Plays
53
69
Yards / Play
7.5
7.1
EPA / Play
+0.25
+0.28
Passing Yards
--
326
Comp/Att
22/32(69%)
24/31(77%)
Yards / Pass
--
10.5
EPA / Pass
+0.52
+0.60
Rushing Yards
81
165
Rush Attempts
21
36
Yards / Rush
3.9
4.6
EPA / Rush
-0.06
+0.19
Downs & Conversions
Texans logo
Jaguars logo
1st Downs
20
29
Passing 1st downs
13
15
Rushing 1st downs
6
12
Penalty 1st downs
1
2
3rd Down %
40%
36%
3rd Down Conversions
4
4
3rd Down Attempts
10
11
Red Zone %
75%
50%
Red Zone Conversions
3
2
Red Zone Attempts
4
4
Negative Plays
Texans logo
Jaguars logo
Turnovers
1
0
Interceptions
0
0
Fumbles
1
0
Turnover EPA
-0.69
--
Sacks
--
2
Sack Yards
--
-16
Sack EPA
--
-3.31
Penalties
8
8
Penalty Yards
49
62
Penalty EPA
-5.56
-6.48

Game Preview

nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game

Model

Projected Winner
JAX logo
JAXJaguarsFavored
Opening
N/A
Current
-1.0
Model
-1.0

Win Probability

Market52.2%
Model52.2%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+21
Home nfelo
1,410
Away nfelo
1,470
Home Field
+63.4
Base HFA
+62.5
Divisional Adj
-28.2
Home Bye Adj
+17.9
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
--
Time Adj
+11.2
Net QB Adjustment
+17.7
Home QB Adjustment
+7.3
Away QB Adjustment
-10.3
Market Regression
+15.3
Final Difference
15.3
Model Spread
-1.0

Quarterbacks

M. Schaub headshot

M. Schaub

Proj. Value
-1.0
Team Elo Adj
-10.3
Value
Ptile
12/27
3.0
69
01/03
3.6
73
09/12
-6.1
12
09/19
8.7
95
09/26
-3.1
28
10/03
2.6
66
10/10
-6.7
10
10/17
6.8
90
11/01
-3.9
25
11/07
-0.2
48
D. Garrard headshot

D. Garrard

Proj. Value
+0.2
Team Elo Adj
+7.3
Value
Ptile
12/17
1.1
56
12/27
-1.3
41
01/03
0.0
49
09/12
5.0
82
09/19
-7.8
7
09/26
-12.1
2
10/03
8.9
95
10/10
2.5
66
10/18
-5.7
14
10/31
8.9
95

Team Matchup Ranks

Texans Offense vs Jaguars Defense
Texans logo
Jaguars logo

Total

Points / Game
11
26
Yards / Game
3
27
Passing Yards / Game
13
16
Rushing Yards / Game
7
22

EPA

EPA / Play
2
30
EPA / Pass
5
31
EPA / Rush
4
30

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
9
13
Interceptions / Game
7
23
Fumbles / Game
3
28
Turnover EPA / Game
29
2

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
9
27
4th Down Efficiency
14
12
RZ Efficiency
5
20
Jaguars Offense vs Texans Defense
Jaguars logo
Texans logo

Total

Points / Game
17
29
Yards / Game
13
29
Passing Yards / Game
19
30
Rushing Yards / Game
3
14

EPA

EPA / Play
9
32
EPA / Pass
21
32
EPA / Rush
3
27

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
2
21
Interceptions / Game
27
23
Fumbles / Game
9
32
Turnover EPA / Game
10
3

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
13
20
4th Down Efficiency
6
32
RZ Efficiency
2
31

Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)

HOU logo

Texans

6-4
SU
4-6
ATS
6-3-1
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
12/27
7
W
W
P
01/03
7
W
L
O
09/12
10
W
W
O
09/19
3
W
W
O
09/26
-14
L
L
U
10/03
7
W
W
O
10/10
-24
L
L
U
10/17
4
W
L
O
11/01
-13
L
L
U
11/07
-6
L
L
O
JAX logo

Jaguars

4-6
SU
4-6
ATS
6-4
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
12/27
-28
L
L
U
01/03
-6
L
L
O
09/12
7
W
W
U
09/19
-25
L
L
O
09/26
-25
L
L
U
10/03
3
W
W
O
10/10
10
W
W
O
10/18
-27
L
L
U
10/24
-22
L
L
O
10/31
18
W
W
O