HOUTexans
5-3
24
TBD
TIAA Bank Stadium
69°F
10 mph
21
JAXJaguars
2-6
TBD
TIAA Bank Stadium
69°F
10 mph
Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Texans
8
0
7
3
18
Jaguars
7
3
0
11
21
Spread
+3
Total
OVER
42
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
273
329
Total Plays
61
74
Yards / Play
4.5
4.4
EPA / Play
-0.09
-0.12
Passing Yards
92
249
Comp/Att
14/27(52%)
32/50(64%)
Yards / Pass
3.4
5.0
EPA / Pass
-0.08
+0.00
Rushing Yards
181
80
Rush Attempts
33
22
Yards / Rush
5.5
3.6
EPA / Rush
+0.18
-0.43
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
16
23
Passing 1st downs
6
18
Rushing 1st downs
9
3
Penalty 1st downs
1
2
3rd Down %
47%
59%
3rd Down Conversions
7
10
3rd Down Attempts
15
17
Red Zone %
100%
100%
Red Zone Conversions
2
2
Red Zone Attempts
2
2
Negative Plays
Turnovers
0
2
Interceptions
0
1
Fumbles
0
1
Turnover EPA
--
-13.32
Sacks
1
2
Sack Yards
-7
-18
Sack EPA
-1.70
-3.76
Penalties
4
4
Penalty Yards
89
49
Penalty EPA
-7.81
-5.14
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
JAXJaguarsFavored
Opening
N/A
Current
-3.0
Model
-1.0
Win Probability
Market59.3%
Model52.3%
Spread Pick
Texans+3.0
Expected Value
+8.8%
Cover Probability
53.5%
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
-23
Home nfelo
1,414
Away nfelo
1,472
Home Field
+17.1
Base HFA
+57.3
Divisional Adj
-25.8
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
-44.5
Surface Adj
+20.0
Time Adj
+10.3
Net QB Adjustment
+17.4
Home QB Adjustment
+11.8
Away QB Adjustment
-5.6
Market Regression
+16.0
Final Difference
16.0
Model Spread
-1.0
Quarterbacks
B. Osweiler
Proj. Value
-2.8
Team Elo Adj
-5.6
R. Bortles
Proj. Value
-1.8
Team Elo Adj
+11.8
Team Matchup Ranks
Texans Offense vs Jaguars Defense
Total
Points / Game
28
24
Yards / Game
29
6
Passing Yards / Game
28
1
Rushing Yards / Game
7
18
EPA
EPA / Play
31
21
EPA / Pass
29
9
EPA / Rush
26
11
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
9
18
Interceptions / Game
25
32
Fumbles / Game
10
24
Turnover EPA / Game
11
2
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
27
9
4th Down Efficiency
29
12
RZ Efficiency
31
14
Jaguars Offense vs Texans Defense
Total
Points / Game
25
12
Yards / Game
22
1
Passing Yards / Game
11
7
Rushing Yards / Game
23
11
EPA
EPA / Play
24
3
EPA / Pass
28
4
EPA / Rush
25
4
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
11
22
Interceptions / Game
21
13
Fumbles / Game
27
25
Turnover EPA / Game
10
17
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
29
7
4th Down Efficiency
25
3
RZ Efficiency
11
16
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Texans
6-4
SU
5-4-1
ATS
3-7
O/U
Jaguars
2-8
SU
3-7
ATS
6-4
O/U