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  1. nfelo...
  2. predictions...
  3. texans @ jaguars week 10, 2016

Game Summary

Spread
Total

Model

Quarterbacks

Matchup

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HOU logo
HOUTexans
5-3
24
TBD
TIAA Bank Stadium
69°F
10 mph
21
JAXJaguars
2-6
JAX logo
TBD
TIAA Bank Stadium
69°F
10 mph

Game Summary

Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Texans
8
0
7
3
18
Jaguars
7
3
0
11
21

Spread

HOU logo
+3

Total

OVER
42

Game Statistics

General
Texans logo
Jaguars logo
Total Yards
273
329
Total Plays
61
74
Yards / Play
4.5
4.4
EPA / Play
-0.09
-0.12
Passing Yards
92
249
Comp/Att
14/27(52%)
32/50(64%)
Yards / Pass
3.4
5.0
EPA / Pass
-0.08
+0.00
Rushing Yards
181
80
Rush Attempts
33
22
Yards / Rush
5.5
3.6
EPA / Rush
+0.18
-0.43
Downs & Conversions
Texans logo
Jaguars logo
1st Downs
16
23
Passing 1st downs
6
18
Rushing 1st downs
9
3
Penalty 1st downs
1
2
3rd Down %
47%
59%
3rd Down Conversions
7
10
3rd Down Attempts
15
17
Red Zone %
100%
100%
Red Zone Conversions
2
2
Red Zone Attempts
2
2
Negative Plays
Texans logo
Jaguars logo
Turnovers
0
2
Interceptions
0
1
Fumbles
0
1
Turnover EPA
--
-13.32
Sacks
1
2
Sack Yards
-7
-18
Sack EPA
-1.70
-3.76
Penalties
4
4
Penalty Yards
89
49
Penalty EPA
-7.81
-5.14

Game Preview

nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game

Model

Projected Winner
JAX logo
JAXJaguarsFavored
Opening
N/A
Current
-3.0
Model
-1.0

Win Probability

Market59.3%
Model52.4%
Spread Pick
HOU logo
Texans+3.0
Projected +EV
Expected Value
+8.8%
Cover Probability
53.5%
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
-22
Home nfelo
1,413
Away nfelo
1,469
Home Field
+17.4
Base HFA
+58.0
Divisional Adj
-26.2
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
-45.2
Surface Adj
+20.3
Time Adj
+10.4
Net QB Adjustment
+17.4
Home QB Adjustment
+11.8
Away QB Adjustment
-5.6
Market Regression
+16.8
Final Difference
16.8
Model Spread
-1.0

Quarterbacks

B. Osweiler headshot

B. Osweiler

Proj. Value
-2.8
Team Elo Adj
-5.6
Value
Ptile
12/28
2.6
69
01/03
-3.3
26
09/11
-0.5
45
09/18
-3.5
23
09/22
-4.6
16
10/02
1.0
56
10/09
-8.0
5
10/16
0.5
53
10/24
-2.8
28
10/30
-5.8
13
R. Bortles headshot

R. Bortles

Proj. Value
-1.8
Team Elo Adj
+11.8
Value
Ptile
12/27
4.5
80
01/03
-12.5
1
09/11
-0.5
44
09/18
2.2
66
09/25
-6.0
11
10/02
2.6
69
10/16
-2.3
32
10/23
-3.2
25
10/27
6.5
88
11/06
2.1
65

Team Matchup Ranks

Texans Offense vs Jaguars Defense
Texans logo
Jaguars logo

Total

Points / Game
28
24
Yards / Game
29
6
Passing Yards / Game
28
1
Rushing Yards / Game
7
18

EPA

EPA / Play
31
21
EPA / Pass
29
9
EPA / Rush
26
11

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
9
18
Interceptions / Game
25
32
Fumbles / Game
10
24
Turnover EPA / Game
11
2

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
27
9
4th Down Efficiency
29
12
RZ Efficiency
31
14
Jaguars Offense vs Texans Defense
Jaguars logo
Texans logo

Total

Points / Game
25
12
Yards / Game
22
1
Passing Yards / Game
11
7
Rushing Yards / Game
23
11

EPA

EPA / Play
24
3
EPA / Pass
28
4
EPA / Rush
25
4

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
11
22
Interceptions / Game
21
13
Fumbles / Game
27
25
Turnover EPA / Game
10
17

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
29
7
4th Down Efficiency
25
3
RZ Efficiency
11
16

Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)

HOU logo

Texans

6-4
SU
5-4-1
ATS
3-7
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
01/03
24
W
W
U
01/09
-30
L
L
U
09/11
9
W
W
U
09/18
7
W
W
U
09/22
-27
L
L
U
10/02
7
W
W
O
10/09
-18
L
L
O
10/16
3
W
P
O
10/24
-18
L
L
U
10/30
7
W
W
U
JAX logo

Jaguars

2-8
SU
3-7
ATS
6-4
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
12/27
-11
L
L
O
01/03
-24
L
L
U
09/11
-4
L
L
O
09/18
-24
L
L
O
09/25
-2
L
L
U
10/02
3
W
W
O
10/16
1
W
W
U
10/23
-17
L
L
O
10/27
-14
L
L
O
11/06
-5
L
W
U