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  1. nfelo...
  2. predictions...
  3. texans @ jaguars week 13, 2009

Game Summary

Spread
Total

Model

Quarterbacks

Matchup

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    Offensive and Defensive EPA Tiers
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HOU logo
HOUTexans
5-6
18
TBD
TIAA Bank Stadium
54°F
6 mph
23
JAXJaguars
6-5
JAX logo
TBD
TIAA Bank Stadium
54°F
6 mph

Game Summary

Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Texans
0
7
3
6
16
Jaguars
3
17
3
0
23

Spread

JAX logo
+2

Total

UNDER
47.5

Game Statistics

General
Texans logo
Jaguars logo
Total Yards
301
323
Total Plays
62
68
Yards / Play
4.9
4.8
EPA / Play
-0.03
+0.06
Passing Yards
233
216
Comp/Att
22/38(58%)
15/28(54%)
Yards / Pass
6.1
7.7
EPA / Pass
-0.13
+0.29
Rushing Yards
68
107
Rush Attempts
22
36
Yards / Rush
3.1
3.0
EPA / Rush
-0.03
-0.22
Downs & Conversions
Texans logo
Jaguars logo
1st Downs
19
19
Passing 1st downs
10
11
Rushing 1st downs
7
7
Penalty 1st downs
2
1
3rd Down %
33%
50%
3rd Down Conversions
5
8
3rd Down Attempts
15
16
Red Zone %
50%
33%
Red Zone Conversions
2
1
Red Zone Attempts
4
3
Negative Plays
Texans logo
Jaguars logo
Turnovers
4
0
Interceptions
3
0
Fumbles
1
0
Turnover EPA
-8.44
--
Sacks
2
4
Sack Yards
-7
-22
Sack EPA
+1.05
-6.51
Penalties
6
4
Penalty Yards
37
45
Penalty EPA
-8.31
-4.89

Game Preview

nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game

Model

Projected Winner
HOU logo
HOUTexansFavored
Opening
N/A
Current
-2.0
Model
-2.0

Win Probability

Market54.7%
Model54.7%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
-62
Home nfelo
1,435
Away nfelo
1,524
Home Field
+45.5
Base HFA
+62.5
Divisional Adj
-28.2
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
--
Time Adj
+11.2
Net QB Adjustment
-18.0
Home QB Adjustment
+0.7
Away QB Adjustment
+18.8
Market Regression
-3.2
Final Difference
-32.8
Model Spread
+2.0

Quarterbacks

M. Schaub headshot

M. Schaub

Proj. Value
-1.0
Team Elo Adj
+18.8
Value
Ptile
09/20
11.7
99
09/27
5.5
84
10/04
-5.0
21
10/11
8.0
92
10/18
8.8
94
10/25
4.1
76
11/01
0.2
51
11/08
4.4
79
11/23
1.9
63
11/29
3.1
70
D. Garrard headshot

D. Garrard

Proj. Value
+0.2
Team Elo Adj
+0.7
Value
Ptile
09/20
-0.3
47
09/27
4.1
76
10/04
10.3
97
10/11
-5.0
21
10/18
0.8
55
11/01
-9.6
3
11/08
3.3
71
11/15
3.6
73
11/22
1.3
58
11/29
-1.2
43

Team Matchup Ranks

Texans Offense vs Jaguars Defense
Texans logo
Jaguars logo

Total

Points / Game
10
24
Yards / Game
5
22
Passing Yards / Game
10
1
Rushing Yards / Game
30
18

EPA

EPA / Play
9
32
EPA / Pass
6
32
EPA / Rush
29
10

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
5
7
Interceptions / Game
18
16
Fumbles / Game
25
20
Turnover EPA / Game
10
8

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
15
31
4th Down Efficiency
4
31
RZ Efficiency
12
24
Jaguars Offense vs Texans Defense
Jaguars logo
Texans logo

Total

Points / Game
24
16
Yards / Game
18
14
Passing Yards / Game
13
16
Rushing Yards / Game
9
10

EPA

EPA / Play
16
16
EPA / Pass
20
11
EPA / Rush
1
13

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
1
27
Interceptions / Game
4
21
Fumbles / Game
22
20
Turnover EPA / Game
15
19

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
4
20
4th Down Efficiency
10
7
RZ Efficiency
18
30

Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)

HOU logo

Texans

5-5
SU
5-4-1
ATS
4-6
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
09/20
3
W
W
O
09/27
-7
L
L
O
10/04
23
W
W
U
10/11
-7
L
L
U
10/18
11
W
W
U
10/25
3
W
P
O
11/01
21
W
W
U
11/08
-3
L
W
U
11/23
-3
L
L
U
11/29
-8
L
L
O
JAX logo

Jaguars

6-4
SU
3-7
ATS
6-4
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
09/20
-14
L
L
O
09/27
7
W
W
O
10/04
20
W
W
O
10/11
-41
L
L
U
10/18
3
W
L
O
11/01
-17
L
L
U
11/08
3
W
L
O
11/15
2
W
W
O
11/22
3
W
L
U
11/29
-17
L
L
U