HOUTexans
5-6
18
TBD
TIAA Bank Stadium
54°F
6 mph
23
JAXJaguars
6-5
TBD
TIAA Bank Stadium
54°F
6 mph
Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Texans
0
7
3
6
16
Jaguars
3
17
3
0
23
Spread
+2
Total
UNDER
47.5
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
301
323
Total Plays
62
68
Yards / Play
4.9
4.8
EPA / Play
-0.03
+0.06
Passing Yards
233
216
Comp/Att
22/38(58%)
15/28(54%)
Yards / Pass
6.1
7.7
EPA / Pass
-0.13
+0.29
Rushing Yards
68
107
Rush Attempts
22
36
Yards / Rush
3.1
3.0
EPA / Rush
-0.03
-0.22
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
19
19
Passing 1st downs
10
11
Rushing 1st downs
7
7
Penalty 1st downs
2
1
3rd Down %
33%
50%
3rd Down Conversions
5
8
3rd Down Attempts
15
16
Red Zone %
50%
33%
Red Zone Conversions
2
1
Red Zone Attempts
4
3
Negative Plays
Turnovers
4
0
Interceptions
3
0
Fumbles
1
0
Turnover EPA
-8.44
--
Sacks
2
4
Sack Yards
-7
-22
Sack EPA
+1.05
-6.51
Penalties
6
4
Penalty Yards
37
45
Penalty EPA
-8.31
-4.89
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
HOUTexansFavored
Opening
N/A
Current
-2.0
Model
-2.0
Win Probability
Market54.7%
Model54.7%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
-58
Home nfelo
1,436
Away nfelo
1,522
Home Field
+45.5
Base HFA
+62.5
Divisional Adj
-28.2
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
--
Time Adj
+11.2
Net QB Adjustment
-18.0
Home QB Adjustment
+0.7
Away QB Adjustment
+18.8
Market Regression
-4.9
Final Difference
-32.8
Model Spread
+2.0
Quarterbacks
M. Schaub
Proj. Value
-1.0
Team Elo Adj
+18.8
D. Garrard
Proj. Value
+0.2
Team Elo Adj
+0.7
Team Matchup Ranks
Texans Offense vs Jaguars Defense
Total
Points / Game
10
24
Yards / Game
5
22
Passing Yards / Game
10
1
Rushing Yards / Game
30
18
EPA
EPA / Play
9
32
EPA / Pass
6
32
EPA / Rush
29
10
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
5
7
Interceptions / Game
18
16
Fumbles / Game
25
20
Turnover EPA / Game
10
8
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
15
31
4th Down Efficiency
4
31
RZ Efficiency
12
24
Jaguars Offense vs Texans Defense
Total
Points / Game
24
16
Yards / Game
18
14
Passing Yards / Game
13
16
Rushing Yards / Game
9
10
EPA
EPA / Play
16
16
EPA / Pass
20
11
EPA / Rush
1
13
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
1
27
Interceptions / Game
4
21
Fumbles / Game
22
20
Turnover EPA / Game
15
19
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
4
20
4th Down Efficiency
10
7
RZ Efficiency
18
30
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Texans
5-5
SU
5-4-1
ATS
4-6
O/U
Jaguars
6-4
SU
3-7
ATS
6-4
O/U