HOUTexans
2-10
20
TBD
TIAA Bank Stadium
72°F
7 mph
27
JAXJaguars
3-9
TBD
TIAA Bank Stadium
72°F
7 mph
Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Texans
0
7
10
3
20
Jaguars
7
10
7
3
27
Spread
+3
Total
OVER
43.5
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
406
281
Total Plays
80
57
Yards / Play
5.1
4.9
EPA / Play
+0.01
+0.11
Passing Yards
323
132
Comp/Att
33/58(57%)
13/28(46%)
Yards / Pass
5.6
4.7
EPA / Pass
+0.06
+0.10
Rushing Yards
83
149
Rush Attempts
19
28
Yards / Rush
4.4
5.3
EPA / Rush
-0.04
+0.05
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
23
18
Passing 1st downs
19
7
Rushing 1st downs
3
4
Penalty 1st downs
1
7
3rd Down %
47%
29%
3rd Down Conversions
8
4
3rd Down Attempts
17
14
Red Zone %
40%
100%
Red Zone Conversions
2
2
Red Zone Attempts
5
2
Negative Plays
Turnovers
2
0
Interceptions
2
0
Fumbles
0
0
Turnover EPA
-6.11
--
Sacks
3
1
Sack Yards
-34
-6
Sack EPA
-3.91
-0.30
Penalties
14
8
Penalty Yards
177
57
Penalty EPA
-14.68
-5.94
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
HOUTexansFavored
Opening
-2.0
Current
-3.0
Model
-5.0
Win Probability
Market59.7%
Model67.2%
Spread Pick
Texans-3.0
Expected Value
+9.9%
Cover Probability
53.8%
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
-171
Home nfelo
1,226
Away nfelo
1,520
Home Field
+23.1
Base HFA
+62.5
Divisional Adj
-28.2
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
--
Time Adj
-11.2
Net QB Adjustment
+100.0
Home QB Adjustment
+19.6
Away QB Adjustment
-80.5
Market Regression
-15.6
Final Difference
-124.5
Model Spread
+5.0
Quarterbacks
C. Keenum
Proj. Value
-1.8
Team Elo Adj
-80.5
C. Henne
Proj. Value
-2.5
Team Elo Adj
+19.6
Team Matchup Ranks
Texans Offense vs Jaguars Defense
Total
Points / Game
31
28
Yards / Game
13
26
Passing Yards / Game
6
19
Rushing Yards / Game
20
29
EPA
EPA / Play
30
27
EPA / Pass
29
31
EPA / Rush
22
22
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
3
2
Interceptions / Game
28
27
Fumbles / Game
13
16
Turnover EPA / Game
3
12
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
22
26
4th Down Efficiency
26
30
RZ Efficiency
26
23
Jaguars Offense vs Texans Defense
Total
Points / Game
32
25
Yards / Game
31
6
Passing Yards / Game
20
10
Rushing Yards / Game
31
23
EPA
EPA / Play
31
19
EPA / Pass
32
28
EPA / Rush
30
7
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
1
17
Interceptions / Game
27
32
Fumbles / Game
4
31
Turnover EPA / Game
10
1
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
32
7
4th Down Efficiency
20
8
RZ Efficiency
32
32
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Texans
0-10
SU
3-7
ATS
6-4
O/U
Jaguars
3-7
SU
4-6
ATS
7-3
O/U