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  1. nfelo...
  2. predictions...
  3. texans @ jaguars week 14, 2013

Game Summary

Spread
Total

Model

Quarterbacks

Matchup

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HOU logo
HOUTexans
2-10
20
TBD
TIAA Bank Stadium
72°F
7 mph
27
JAXJaguars
3-9
JAX logo
TBD
TIAA Bank Stadium
72°F
7 mph

Game Summary

Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Texans
0
7
10
3
20
Jaguars
7
10
7
3
27

Spread

JAX logo
+3

Total

OVER
43.5

Game Statistics

General
Texans logo
Jaguars logo
Total Yards
406
281
Total Plays
80
57
Yards / Play
5.1
4.9
EPA / Play
+0.01
+0.11
Passing Yards
323
132
Comp/Att
33/58(57%)
13/28(46%)
Yards / Pass
5.6
4.7
EPA / Pass
+0.06
+0.10
Rushing Yards
83
149
Rush Attempts
19
28
Yards / Rush
4.4
5.3
EPA / Rush
-0.04
+0.05
Downs & Conversions
Texans logo
Jaguars logo
1st Downs
23
18
Passing 1st downs
19
7
Rushing 1st downs
3
4
Penalty 1st downs
1
7
3rd Down %
47%
29%
3rd Down Conversions
8
4
3rd Down Attempts
17
14
Red Zone %
40%
100%
Red Zone Conversions
2
2
Red Zone Attempts
5
2
Negative Plays
Texans logo
Jaguars logo
Turnovers
2
0
Interceptions
2
0
Fumbles
0
0
Turnover EPA
-6.11
--
Sacks
3
1
Sack Yards
-34
-6
Sack EPA
-3.91
-0.30
Penalties
14
8
Penalty Yards
177
57
Penalty EPA
-14.68
-5.94

Game Preview

nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game

Model

Projected Winner
HOU logo
HOUTexansFavored
Opening
-2.0
Current
-3.0
Model
-4.5

Win Probability

Market59.7%
Model67.1%
Spread Pick
HOU logo
Texans-3.0
Projected +EV
Expected Value
+9.5%
Cover Probability
53.4%
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
-170
Home nfelo
1,228
Away nfelo
1,520
Home Field
+23.1
Base HFA
+62.5
Divisional Adj
-28.2
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
--
Time Adj
-11.2
Net QB Adjustment
+100.0
Home QB Adjustment
+19.6
Away QB Adjustment
-80.5
Market Regression
-15.6
Final Difference
-123.9
Model Spread
+4.5

Quarterbacks

C. Keenum headshot

C. Keenum

Proj. Value
-1.8
Team Elo Adj
-80.5
Value
Ptile
10/20
-0.9
45
11/03
8.7
93
11/10
0.7
55
11/17
-5.1
19
11/24
-7.3
10
12/01
-0.3
48
C. Henne headshot

C. Henne

Proj. Value
-2.5
Team Elo Adj
+19.6
Value
Ptile
12/30
-6.8
10
09/15
-2.0
38
09/22
-7.7
9
10/13
-3.1
31
10/20
-5.9
15
10/27
3.2
72
11/10
-8.0
8
11/17
-1.6
42
11/24
-1.6
41
12/01
-2.5
36

Team Matchup Ranks

Texans Offense vs Jaguars Defense
Texans logo
Jaguars logo

Total

Points / Game
31
28
Yards / Game
13
26
Passing Yards / Game
6
19
Rushing Yards / Game
20
29

EPA

EPA / Play
30
27
EPA / Pass
29
31
EPA / Rush
22
22

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
3
2
Interceptions / Game
28
27
Fumbles / Game
13
16
Turnover EPA / Game
3
12

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
22
26
4th Down Efficiency
26
30
RZ Efficiency
26
23
Jaguars Offense vs Texans Defense
Jaguars logo
Texans logo

Total

Points / Game
32
25
Yards / Game
31
6
Passing Yards / Game
20
10
Rushing Yards / Game
31
23

EPA

EPA / Play
31
19
EPA / Pass
32
28
EPA / Rush
30
7

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
1
17
Interceptions / Game
27
32
Fumbles / Game
4
31
Turnover EPA / Game
10
1

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
32
7
4th Down Efficiency
20
8
RZ Efficiency
32
32

Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)

HOU logo

Texans

0-10
SU
3-7
ATS
6-4
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
09/22
-21
L
L
U
09/29
-3
L
L
O
10/06
-31
L
L
U
10/13
-25
L
L
O
10/20
-1
L
W
U
11/03
-3
L
L
O
11/10
-3
L
W
O
11/17
-5
L
L
O
11/24
-7
L
L
U
12/01
-3
L
W
O
JAX logo

Jaguars

3-7
SU
4-6
ATS
7-3
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
09/22
-28
L
L
O
09/29
-34
L
L
U
10/06
-14
L
L
O
10/13
-16
L
W
O
10/20
-18
L
L
U
10/27
-32
L
L
O
11/10
2
W
W
O
11/17
-13
L
L
O
11/24
7
W
W
U
12/01
4
W
W
O