HOUTexans
6-2
13
TBD
MetLife Stadium
71°F
8 mph
21
NYJJets
2-6
TBD
MetLife Stadium
71°F
8 mph
Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Texans
0
7
3
3
13
Jets
0
0
7
14
21
Spread
-2.5
Total
UNDER
43.5
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
322
293
Total Plays
75
55
Yards / Play
4.3
5.3
EPA / Play
+0.01
+0.16
Passing Yards
135
193
Comp/Att
11/31(35%)
22/32(69%)
Yards / Pass
4.4
6.0
EPA / Pass
-0.46
+0.27
Rushing Yards
187
100
Rush Attempts
36
21
Yards / Rush
5.2
4.8
EPA / Rush
+0.24
-0.38
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
21
17
Passing 1st downs
6
11
Rushing 1st downs
10
4
Penalty 1st downs
5
2
3rd Down %
35%
42%
3rd Down Conversions
6
5
3rd Down Attempts
17
12
Red Zone %
25%
67%
Red Zone Conversions
1
2
Red Zone Attempts
4
3
Negative Plays
Turnovers
1
1
Interceptions
0
0
Fumbles
1
1
Turnover EPA
-5.05
-5.29
Sacks
8
2
Sack Yards
-56
-18
Sack EPA
-16.35
-3.71
Penalties
7
9
Penalty Yards
60
83
Penalty EPA
-7.17
-13.95
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
NYJJetsFavored
Opening
-2.0
Current
-2.5
Model
N/A
Win Probability
Market56.1%
Model49.6%
Spread Pick
Texans+2.5
Expected Value
+2.7%
Cover Probability
53.8%
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
-39
Home nfelo
1,486
Away nfelo
1,568
Home Field
+35.3
Base HFA
+43.0
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
--
Time Adj
-7.7
Net QB Adjustment
+7.7
Home QB Adjustment
+5.8
Away QB Adjustment
-1.9
Market Regression
+6.2
Final Difference
-2.5
Model Spread
--
Quarterbacks
C. Stroud
Proj. Value
-1.9
Team Elo Adj
-1.9
A. Rodgers
Proj. Value
+0.3
Team Elo Adj
+5.8
Team Matchup Ranks
Texans Offense vs Jets Defense
Total
Points / Game
18
19
Yards / Game
17
5
Passing Yards / Game
11
4
Rushing Yards / Game
13
17
EPA
EPA / Play
22
24
EPA / Pass
22
19
EPA / Rush
26
21
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
29
17
Interceptions / Game
16
27
Fumbles / Game
16
7
Turnover EPA / Game
21
4
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
17
14
4th Down Efficiency
10
30
RZ Efficiency
28
19
Jets Offense vs Texans Defense
Total
Points / Game
24
10
Yards / Game
24
2
Passing Yards / Game
5
11
Rushing Yards / Game
31
9
EPA
EPA / Play
19
6
EPA / Pass
18
3
EPA / Rush
21
6
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
19
3
Interceptions / Game
11
2
Fumbles / Game
10
17
Turnover EPA / Game
17
29
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
15
3
4th Down Efficiency
28
23
RZ Efficiency
21
21
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Texans
7-3
SU
4-5-1
ATS
3-6-1
O/U
Jets
3-7
SU
3-7
ATS
5-5
O/U