HOUTexans
4-5
27
TBD
MetLife Stadium
46°F
1 mph
30
NYJJets
7-2
TBD
MetLife Stadium
46°F
1 mph
Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Texans
0
7
0
20
27
Jets
3
10
7
10
30
Spread
+6.5
Total
OVER
46
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
343
401
Total Plays
60
72
Yards / Play
5.7
5.6
EPA / Play
+0.02
+0.02
Passing Yards
246
298
Comp/Att
19/33(58%)
22/38(58%)
Yards / Pass
7.5
7.8
EPA / Pass
+0.20
+0.13
Rushing Yards
97
103
Rush Attempts
26
31
Yards / Rush
3.7
3.3
EPA / Rush
-0.17
-0.22
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
17
22
Passing 1st downs
12
13
Rushing 1st downs
5
7
Penalty 1st downs
--
2
3rd Down %
33%
47%
3rd Down Conversions
4
7
3rd Down Attempts
12
15
Red Zone %
50%
40%
Red Zone Conversions
2
2
Red Zone Attempts
4
5
Negative Plays
Turnovers
1
2
Interceptions
0
1
Fumbles
1
1
Turnover EPA
-4.04
-10.59
Sacks
1
3
Sack Yards
-8
-17
Sack EPA
-0.84
-4.57
Penalties
3
4
Penalty Yards
--
--
Penalty EPA
--
--
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
NYJJetsFavored
Opening
-8.0
Current
-6.5
Model
-8.5
Win Probability
Market71.0%
Model76.4%
Spread Pick
Jets-6.5
Expected Value
+16.4%
Cover Probability
61.0%
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+245
Home nfelo
1,600
Away nfelo
1,464
Home Field
+95.5
Base HFA
+62.5
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
+21.8
Time Adj
+11.2
Net QB Adjustment
+12.6
Home QB Adjustment
+10.4
Away QB Adjustment
-2.3
Market Regression
-10.9
Final Difference
204.6
Model Spread
-8.5
Quarterbacks
M. Schaub
Proj. Value
-1.0
Team Elo Adj
-2.3
M. Sanchez
Proj. Value
-3.1
Team Elo Adj
+10.4
Team Matchup Ranks
Texans Offense vs Jets Defense
Total
Points / Game
11
5
Yards / Game
3
3
Passing Yards / Game
13
20
Rushing Yards / Game
7
5
EPA
EPA / Play
2
8
EPA / Pass
5
9
EPA / Rush
4
2
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
9
29
Interceptions / Game
7
25
Fumbles / Game
3
4
Turnover EPA / Game
29
22
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
9
15
4th Down Efficiency
14
12
RZ Efficiency
5
25
Jets Offense vs Texans Defense
Total
Points / Game
14
29
Yards / Game
12
29
Passing Yards / Game
27
30
Rushing Yards / Game
4
14
EPA
EPA / Play
15
32
EPA / Pass
18
32
EPA / Rush
6
27
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
24
21
Interceptions / Game
10
23
Fumbles / Game
5
32
Turnover EPA / Game
28
3
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
11
20
4th Down Efficiency
21
32
RZ Efficiency
28
31
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Texans
5-5
SU
3-7
ATS
7-3
O/U
Jets
7-3
SU
6-4
ATS
8-2
O/U