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  1. nfelo...
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  3. texans @ jets week 11, 2010

Game Summary

Spread
Total

Model

Quarterbacks

Matchup

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HOU logo
HOUTexans
4-5
27
TBD
MetLife Stadium
46°F
1 mph
30
NYJJets
7-2
NYJ logo
TBD
MetLife Stadium
46°F
1 mph

Game Summary

Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Texans
0
7
0
20
27
Jets
3
10
7
10
30

Spread

HOU logo
+6.5

Total

OVER
46

Game Statistics

General
Texans logo
Jets logo
Total Yards
343
401
Total Plays
60
72
Yards / Play
5.7
5.6
EPA / Play
+0.02
+0.02
Passing Yards
246
298
Comp/Att
19/33(58%)
22/38(58%)
Yards / Pass
7.5
7.8
EPA / Pass
+0.20
+0.13
Rushing Yards
97
103
Rush Attempts
26
31
Yards / Rush
3.7
3.3
EPA / Rush
-0.17
-0.22
Downs & Conversions
Texans logo
Jets logo
1st Downs
17
22
Passing 1st downs
12
13
Rushing 1st downs
5
7
Penalty 1st downs
--
2
3rd Down %
33%
47%
3rd Down Conversions
4
7
3rd Down Attempts
12
15
Red Zone %
50%
40%
Red Zone Conversions
2
2
Red Zone Attempts
4
5
Negative Plays
Texans logo
Jets logo
Turnovers
1
2
Interceptions
0
1
Fumbles
1
1
Turnover EPA
-4.04
-10.59
Sacks
1
3
Sack Yards
-8
-17
Sack EPA
-0.84
-4.57
Penalties
3
4
Penalty Yards
--
--
Penalty EPA
--
--

Game Preview

nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game

Model

Projected Winner
NYJ logo
NYJJetsFavored
Opening
-8.0
Current
-6.5
Model
-8.5

Win Probability

Market71.0%
Model76.4%
Spread Pick
NYJ logo
Jets-6.5
Projected +EV
Expected Value
+16.4%
Cover Probability
61.0%
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+244
Home nfelo
1,600
Away nfelo
1,464
Home Field
+95.5
Base HFA
+62.5
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
+21.8
Time Adj
+11.2
Net QB Adjustment
+12.6
Home QB Adjustment
+10.4
Away QB Adjustment
-2.3
Market Regression
-11.1
Final Difference
203.9
Model Spread
-8.5

Quarterbacks

M. Schaub headshot

M. Schaub

Proj. Value
-1.0
Team Elo Adj
-2.3
Value
Ptile
01/03
3.6
73
09/12
-6.1
12
09/19
8.7
95
09/26
-3.1
28
10/03
2.6
66
10/10
-6.7
10
10/17
6.8
90
11/01
-3.9
25
11/07
-0.2
48
11/14
7.2
91
M. Sanchez headshot

M. Sanchez

Proj. Value
-3.1
Team Elo Adj
+10.4
Value
Ptile
01/24
2.4
65
09/13
-5.5
15
09/19
3.3
71
09/26
5.7
86
10/03
2.0
62
10/11
-4.5
20
10/17
-5.0
18
10/31
-5.2
17
11/07
3.3
71
11/14
3.9
75

Team Matchup Ranks

Texans Offense vs Jets Defense
Texans logo
Jets logo

Total

Points / Game
11
5
Yards / Game
3
3
Passing Yards / Game
13
20
Rushing Yards / Game
7
5

EPA

EPA / Play
2
8
EPA / Pass
5
9
EPA / Rush
4
2

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
9
29
Interceptions / Game
7
25
Fumbles / Game
3
4
Turnover EPA / Game
29
22

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
9
15
4th Down Efficiency
14
12
RZ Efficiency
5
25
Jets Offense vs Texans Defense
Jets logo
Texans logo

Total

Points / Game
14
29
Yards / Game
12
29
Passing Yards / Game
27
30
Rushing Yards / Game
4
14

EPA

EPA / Play
15
32
EPA / Pass
18
32
EPA / Rush
6
27

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
24
21
Interceptions / Game
10
23
Fumbles / Game
5
32
Turnover EPA / Game
28
3

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
11
20
4th Down Efficiency
21
32
RZ Efficiency
28
31

Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)

HOU logo

Texans

5-5
SU
3-7
ATS
7-3
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
01/03
7
W
L
O
09/12
10
W
W
O
09/19
3
W
W
O
09/26
-14
L
L
U
10/03
7
W
W
O
10/10
-24
L
L
U
10/17
4
W
L
O
11/01
-13
L
L
U
11/07
-6
L
L
O
11/14
-7
L
L
O
NYJ logo

Jets

7-3
SU
6-4
ATS
8-2
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
01/24
-13
L
L
O
09/13
-1
L
L
U
09/19
14
W
W
O
09/26
8
W
W
O
10/03
24
W
W
O
10/11
9
W
W
O
10/17
4
W
W
O
10/31
-9
L
L
U
11/07
3
W
L
O
11/14
6
W
W
O