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  1. nfelo...
  2. predictions...
  3. texans @ jets week 14, 2023

Game Summary

Spread
Total

Model

Quarterbacks

Matchup

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nfelo

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HOU logo
HOUTexans
7-5
6
TBD
MetLife Stadium
58°F
7 mph
30
NYJJets
4-8
NYJ logo
TBD
MetLife Stadium
58°F
7 mph

Game Summary

Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Texans
0
0
6
0
6
Jets
0
0
14
16
30

Spread

NYJ logo
+3

Total

OVER
33.5

Game Statistics

General
Texans logo
Jets logo
Total Yards
135
347
Total Plays
52
66
Yards / Play
2.6
5.3
EPA / Play
-0.47
+0.06
Passing Yards
54
268
Comp/Att
11/28(39%)
27/36(75%)
Yards / Pass
1.9
7.4
EPA / Pass
-0.91
+0.22
Rushing Yards
81
79
Rush Attempts
19
26
Yards / Rush
4.3
3.0
EPA / Rush
-0.10
-0.32
Downs & Conversions
Texans logo
Jets logo
1st Downs
10
20
Passing 1st downs
4
15
Rushing 1st downs
4
4
Penalty 1st downs
2
1
3rd Down %
8%
40%
3rd Down Conversions
1
6
3rd Down Attempts
12
15
Red Zone %
100%
100%
Red Zone Conversions
1
3
Red Zone Attempts
1
3
Negative Plays
Texans logo
Jets logo
Turnovers
0
1
Interceptions
0
0
Fumbles
0
1
Turnover EPA
--
-4.44
Sacks
5
4
Sack Yards
-41
-33
Sack EPA
-8.66
-7.57
Penalties
4
8
Penalty Yards
35
52
Penalty EPA
-3.70
-7.65

Game Preview

nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game

Model

Projected Winner
HOU logo
HOUTexansFavored
Opening
-4.5
Current
-3.0
Model
-3.0

Win Probability

Market59.7%
Model59.7%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
-50
Home nfelo
1,439
Away nfelo
1,458
Home Field
+53.4
Base HFA
+45.3
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
--
Time Adj
+8.1
Net QB Adjustment
-84.2
Home QB Adjustment
-58.3
Away QB Adjustment
+25.9
Market Regression
+37.3
Final Difference
-68.3
Model Spread
+3.0

Quarterbacks

C. Stroud headshot

C. Stroud

Proj. Value
-1.1
Team Elo Adj
+25.9
Value
Ptile
09/24
5.2
82
10/01
5.3
83
10/08
0.3
52
10/15
-2.8
30
10/29
-0.5
46
11/05
12.9
99
11/12
4.5
78
11/19
-1.8
38
11/26
6.9
90
12/03
-3.0
29
Z. Wilson headshot

Z. Wilson

Proj. Value
-3.7
Team Elo Adj
-58.3
Value
Ptile
12/22
-11.5
1
09/17
-7.8
9
09/24
-5.5
16
10/01
4.0
75
10/08
-4.3
23
10/15
-6.0
14
10/29
-3.5
26
11/06
-5.9
15
11/12
-0.4
46
11/19
-9.4
4

Team Matchup Ranks

Texans Offense vs Jets Defense
Texans logo
Jets logo

Total

Points / Game
13
10
Yards / Game
15
2
Passing Yards / Game
21
4
Rushing Yards / Game
28
25

EPA

EPA / Play
14
4
EPA / Pass
11
3
EPA / Rush
27
7

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
24
4
Interceptions / Game
1
5
Fumbles / Game
13
13
Turnover EPA / Game
32
16

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
20
12
4th Down Efficiency
31
5
RZ Efficiency
16
7
Jets Offense vs Texans Defense
Jets logo
Texans logo

Total

Points / Game
29
11
Yards / Game
31
15
Passing Yards / Game
30
6
Rushing Yards / Game
22
8

EPA

EPA / Play
31
13
EPA / Pass
32
16
EPA / Rush
32
9

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
26
15
Interceptions / Game
22
15
Fumbles / Game
32
25
Turnover EPA / Game
3
13

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
32
6
4th Down Efficiency
8
18
RZ Efficiency
32
15

Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)

HOU logo

Texans

7-3
SU
6-4
ATS
3-7
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
09/24
20
W
W
O
10/01
24
W
W
U
10/08
-2
L
W
U
10/15
7
W
W
U
10/29
-2
L
L
U
11/05
2
W
L
O
11/12
3
W
W
O
11/19
5
W
L
U
11/26
-3
L
L
U
12/03
5
W
W
U
NYJ logo

Jets

3-7
SU
3-6-1
ATS
3-7
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
09/24
-5
L
L
U
10/01
-3
L
W
O
10/08
10
W
W
O
10/15
6
W
W
U
10/29
3
W
P
U
11/06
-21
L
L
U
11/12
-4
L
L
U
11/19
-26
L
L
U
11/24
-21
L
L
O
12/03
-5
L
L
U