
HOUTexans
7-5
6
TBD
MetLife Stadium
58°F
7 mph
30
NYJJets
4-8

TBD
MetLife Stadium
58°F
7 mph
Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Texans
0
0
6
0
6
Jets
0
0
14
16
30
Spread

+3
Total
OVER
33.5
Game Statistics
General


Total Yards
135
347
Total Plays
52
66
Yards / Play
2.6
5.3
EPA / Play
-0.47
+0.06
Passing Yards
54
268
Comp/Att
11/28(39%)
27/36(75%)
Yards / Pass
1.9
7.4
EPA / Pass
-0.91
+0.22
Rushing Yards
81
79
Rush Attempts
19
26
Yards / Rush
4.3
3.0
EPA / Rush
-0.10
-0.32
Downs & Conversions


1st Downs
10
20
Passing 1st downs
4
15
Rushing 1st downs
4
4
Penalty 1st downs
2
1
3rd Down %
8%
40%
3rd Down Conversions
1
6
3rd Down Attempts
12
15
Red Zone %
100%
100%
Red Zone Conversions
1
3
Red Zone Attempts
1
3
Negative Plays


Turnovers
0
1
Interceptions
0
0
Fumbles
0
1
Turnover EPA
--
-4.44
Sacks
5
4
Sack Yards
-41
-33
Sack EPA
-8.66
-7.57
Penalties
4
8
Penalty Yards
35
52
Penalty EPA
-3.70
-7.65
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner

HOUTexansFavored
Opening
-4.5
Current
-3.0
Model
-3.0
Win Probability
Market59.7%
Model59.7%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
-46
Home nfelo
1,441
Away nfelo
1,458
Home Field
+53.5
Base HFA
+45.4
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
--
Time Adj
+8.1
Net QB Adjustment
-83.3
Home QB Adjustment
-58.2
Away QB Adjustment
+25.1
Market Regression
+36.6
Final Difference
-68.3
Model Spread
+3.0
Quarterbacks

C. Stroud
Proj. Value
-1.9
Team Elo Adj
+25.1

Z. Wilson
Proj. Value
-3.7
Team Elo Adj
-58.2
Team Matchup Ranks
Texans Offense vs Jets Defense


Total
Points / Game
13
10
Yards / Game
15
2
Passing Yards / Game
21
4
Rushing Yards / Game
28
25
EPA
EPA / Play
14
4
EPA / Pass
11
3
EPA / Rush
27
7
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
24
4
Interceptions / Game
1
5
Fumbles / Game
13
13
Turnover EPA / Game
32
16
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
20
12
4th Down Efficiency
31
5
RZ Efficiency
16
7
Jets Offense vs Texans Defense


Total
Points / Game
29
11
Yards / Game
31
15
Passing Yards / Game
30
6
Rushing Yards / Game
22
8
EPA
EPA / Play
31
13
EPA / Pass
32
16
EPA / Rush
32
9
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
26
15
Interceptions / Game
22
15
Fumbles / Game
32
25
Turnover EPA / Game
3
13
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
32
6
4th Down Efficiency
8
18
RZ Efficiency
32
15
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)

Texans
7-3
SU
6-4
ATS
3-7
O/U

Jets
3-7
SU
3-6-1
ATS
3-7
O/U