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  1. nfelo...
  2. predictions...
  3. texans @ packers week 7, 2024

Game Summary

Spread
Total

Model

Quarterbacks

Matchup

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    Offensive and Defensive EPA Tiers
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HOU logo
HOUTexans
5-1
22
TBD
Lambeau Field
72°F
3 mph
24
GBPackers
4-2
GB logo
TBD
Lambeau Field
72°F
3 mph

Game Summary

Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Texans
3
16
0
3
22
Packers
0
14
7
3
24

Spread

HOU logo
+3

Total

UNDER
47.5

Game Statistics

General
Texans logo
Packers logo
Total Yards
197
277
Total Plays
59
56
Yards / Play
3.3
4.9
EPA / Play
+0.05
+0.04
Passing Yards
55
195
Comp/Att
10/21(48%)
24/33(73%)
Yards / Pass
2.6
5.9
EPA / Pass
-0.54
-0.02
Rushing Yards
142
82
Rush Attempts
34
20
Yards / Rush
4.2
4.1
EPA / Rush
+0.03
-0.19
Downs & Conversions
Texans logo
Packers logo
1st Downs
15
18
Passing 1st downs
6
12
Rushing 1st downs
9
4
Penalty 1st downs
--
2
3rd Down %
31%
40%
3rd Down Conversions
4
4
3rd Down Attempts
13
10
Red Zone %
50%
100%
Red Zone Conversions
2
2
Red Zone Attempts
4
2
Negative Plays
Texans logo
Packers logo
Turnovers
1
2
Interceptions
0
2
Fumbles
1
0
Turnover EPA
+6.15
-10.85
Sacks
4
3
Sack Yards
-31
-25
Sack EPA
-8.33
-4.37
Penalties
5
8
Penalty Yards
55
55
Penalty EPA
-5.81
-4.17

Game Preview

nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game

Model

Projected Winner
GB logo
GBPackersFavored
Opening
-2.5
Current
-3.0
Model
-3.0

Win Probability

Market59.3%
Model59.3%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+67
Home nfelo
1,584
Away nfelo
1,571
Home Field
+60.8
Base HFA
+45.0
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
+15.7
Time Adj
--
Net QB Adjustment
-6.8
Home QB Adjustment
+4.3
Away QB Adjustment
+11.1
Market Regression
+22.8
Final Difference
65.4
Model Spread
-3.0

Quarterbacks

C. Stroud headshot

C. Stroud

Proj. Value
-1.1
Team Elo Adj
+11.1
Value
Ptile
12/31
2.1
64
01/06
4.5
78
01/13
8.9
96
01/20
1.2
57
09/08
0.9
55
09/15
-0.9
43
09/22
-6.2
11
09/29
4.9
79
10/06
6.0
84
10/13
0.6
52
J. Love headshot

J. Love

Proj. Value
+1.2
Team Elo Adj
+4.3
Value
Ptile
12/17
3.9
75
12/24
4.5
78
12/31
8.5
95
01/07
7.3
92
01/14
8.2
94
01/20
-1.2
41
09/06
-1.8
36
09/29
4.2
76
10/06
-2.0
34
10/13
5.4
81

Team Matchup Ranks

Texans Offense vs Packers Defense
Texans logo
Packers logo

Total

Points / Game
18
5
Yards / Game
17
4
Passing Yards / Game
11
22
Rushing Yards / Game
13
7

EPA

EPA / Play
22
5
EPA / Pass
22
5
EPA / Rush
26
7

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
29
31
Interceptions / Game
16
3
Fumbles / Game
16
4
Turnover EPA / Game
21
26

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
17
7
4th Down Efficiency
10
22
RZ Efficiency
28
16
Packers Offense vs Texans Defense
Packers logo
Texans logo

Total

Points / Game
8
10
Yards / Game
7
2
Passing Yards / Game
29
11
Rushing Yards / Game
6
9

EPA

EPA / Play
9
6
EPA / Pass
8
3
EPA / Rush
8
6

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
21
3
Interceptions / Game
20
2
Fumbles / Game
19
17
Turnover EPA / Game
16
29

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
10
3
4th Down Efficiency
23
23
RZ Efficiency
10
21

Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)

HOU logo

Texans

8-2
SU
5-4-1
ATS
3-6-1
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
12/31
23
W
W
U
01/06
4
W
W
U
01/13
31
W
W
O
01/20
-24
L
L
P
09/08
2
W
L
O
09/15
6
W
P
U
09/22
-27
L
L
U
09/29
4
W
L
U
10/06
3
W
W
U
10/13
20
W
W
O
GB logo

Packers

7-3
SU
8-2
ATS
5-4-1
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
12/31
23
W
W
O
01/07
8
W
W
U
01/14
16
W
W
O
01/20
-3
L
W
U
09/06
-5
L
L
O
09/15
6
W
W
U
09/22
16
W
W
O
09/29
-2
L
L
O
10/06
5
W
W
U
10/13
21
W
W
P