HOUTexans
5-1
22
TBD
Lambeau Field
72°F
3 mph
24
GBPackers
4-2
TBD
Lambeau Field
72°F
3 mph
Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Texans
3
16
0
3
22
Packers
0
14
7
3
24
Spread
+3
Total
UNDER
47.5
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
197
277
Total Plays
59
56
Yards / Play
3.3
4.9
EPA / Play
+0.05
+0.04
Passing Yards
55
195
Comp/Att
10/21(48%)
24/33(73%)
Yards / Pass
2.6
5.9
EPA / Pass
-0.54
-0.02
Rushing Yards
142
82
Rush Attempts
34
20
Yards / Rush
4.2
4.1
EPA / Rush
+0.03
-0.19
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
15
18
Passing 1st downs
6
12
Rushing 1st downs
9
4
Penalty 1st downs
--
2
3rd Down %
31%
40%
3rd Down Conversions
4
4
3rd Down Attempts
13
10
Red Zone %
50%
100%
Red Zone Conversions
2
2
Red Zone Attempts
4
2
Negative Plays
Turnovers
1
2
Interceptions
0
2
Fumbles
1
0
Turnover EPA
+6.15
-10.85
Sacks
4
3
Sack Yards
-31
-25
Sack EPA
-8.33
-4.37
Penalties
5
8
Penalty Yards
55
55
Penalty EPA
-5.81
-4.17
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
GBPackersFavored
Opening
-2.5
Current
-3.0
Model
-3.0
Win Probability
Market59.3%
Model59.3%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+62
Home nfelo
1,583
Away nfelo
1,574
Home Field
+60.9
Base HFA
+45.1
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
+15.8
Time Adj
--
Net QB Adjustment
-6.7
Home QB Adjustment
+4.3
Away QB Adjustment
+11.0
Market Regression
+22.8
Final Difference
65.4
Model Spread
-3.0
Quarterbacks
C. Stroud
Proj. Value
-1.4
Team Elo Adj
+11.0
J. Love
Proj. Value
+0.5
Team Elo Adj
+4.3
Team Matchup Ranks
Texans Offense vs Packers Defense
Total
Points / Game
18
5
Yards / Game
17
4
Passing Yards / Game
11
22
Rushing Yards / Game
13
7
EPA
EPA / Play
22
5
EPA / Pass
22
5
EPA / Rush
26
7
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
29
31
Interceptions / Game
16
3
Fumbles / Game
16
4
Turnover EPA / Game
21
26
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
17
7
4th Down Efficiency
10
22
RZ Efficiency
28
16
Packers Offense vs Texans Defense
Total
Points / Game
8
10
Yards / Game
7
2
Passing Yards / Game
29
11
Rushing Yards / Game
6
9
EPA
EPA / Play
9
6
EPA / Pass
8
3
EPA / Rush
8
6
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
21
3
Interceptions / Game
20
2
Fumbles / Game
19
17
Turnover EPA / Game
16
29
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
10
3
4th Down Efficiency
23
23
RZ Efficiency
10
21
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Texans
8-2
SU
5-4-1
ATS
3-6-1
O/U
Packers
7-3
SU
8-2
ATS
5-4-1
O/U