nfelo logo

nfelo

Live
Platform
Kalshi
$10

$10 Bonus

Receive $10 when you sign up with Kalshi prediction market

Affiliate Disclosure: Some of the links and placements on this site may be affiliate links or paid partnerships. This means nfelo may receive compensation when you click these links or sign up for a partner’s service.

Offer Disclosure: Offers are for informational purposes only. Age, location, and other restrictions may apply. nfelo does not validate offer availability. See provider for full terms.

  1. nfelo...
  2. predictions...
  3. texans @ packers week 13, 2016

Game Summary

Spread
Total

Model

Quarterbacks

Matchup

nfelo logo

nfelo

Advanced NFL analytics platform powered by the nflfastR dataset and custom open source models.

Analysis
Research and insights that power the nfelo model
About
How nfelo works

Predictions

  • Games
    Game previews and model projections
  • Confidence Pool
    Weekly confidence pool picks
  • Betting Card
    +EV NFL Sides
  • Model Performance
    Historic nfelo model performance

Teams

  • Power Ratings
    Team Power Ratings
  • EPA Tiers
    Offensive and Defensive EPA Tiers
  • Tendencies
    Pass rates, formations, and play styles
  • Strength of Schedule
    Projected and realized opponent quality
  • Win Totals
    Win total projections and results

QBs

  • QB Rankings
    QB Elo, EPA, Ratings, and Stats
  • Era Adjusted Elo
    QB Elo model adjusted for era

Tools & More

  • Receiving Leaders
    Advanced stats for receivers
  • Head Coaches
    Stats and ATS Records for Coaches
  • HFA Tracker
    Home Field Advantage for every team
  • NFL Odds Calculator
    Calculate and convert betting odds
  • Cover Probability
    Calculate EV for spreads
  • Sportsbook Hold
    Calculate the hold for odds
  • Hedge Calculator
    Calculate strategy optimal hedge size
  • Parlay Payout Calculator
    Calculate parlay payouts
  • QB Passer Rating Calculator
    Calculate passer rating from stats

© 2025 nfelo. All rights reserved.

Entertainment purposes only. The information contained on nfeloapp.com is not intended to be, and shall not be construed as, gambling advice, financial advice, or any other professional advice or service. nfeloapp.com and its owners assume no responsibility for errors or omissions. Please gamble responsibly.

HOU logo
HOUTexans
6-5
13
TBD
Lambeau Field
32°F
8 mph
21
GBPackers
5-6
GB logo
TBD
Lambeau Field
32°F
8 mph

Game Summary

Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Texans
0
0
7
6
13
Packers
0
7
0
14
21

Spread

GB logo
-7

Total

UNDER
44.5

Game Statistics

General
Texans logo
Packers logo
Total Yards
310
309
Total Plays
64
57
Yards / Play
4.8
5.4
EPA / Play
-0.12
+0.00
Passing Yards
187
200
Comp/Att
22/35(63%)
20/30(67%)
Yards / Pass
5.3
6.7
EPA / Pass
-0.10
+0.22
Rushing Yards
123
109
Rush Attempts
27
26
Yards / Rush
4.6
4.2
EPA / Rush
+0.02
-0.32
Downs & Conversions
Texans logo
Packers logo
1st Downs
17
16
Passing 1st downs
9
9
Rushing 1st downs
8
7
Penalty 1st downs
--
--
3rd Down %
40%
33%
3rd Down Conversions
6
4
3rd Down Attempts
15
12
Red Zone %
100%
67%
Red Zone Conversions
1
2
Red Zone Attempts
1
3
Negative Plays
Texans logo
Packers logo
Turnovers
1
1
Interceptions
0
0
Fumbles
1
1
Turnover EPA
-5.61
-4.87
Sacks
2
1
Sack Yards
-18
-9
Sack EPA
-2.95
-2.03
Penalties
3
4
Penalty Yards
12
30
Penalty EPA
-1.06
-2.46

Game Preview

nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game

Model

Projected Winner
GB logo
GBPackersFavored
Opening
-6.0
Current
-7.0
Model
-7.0

Win Probability

Market72.8%
Model72.8%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+209
Home nfelo
1,524
Away nfelo
1,428
Home Field
+78.2
Base HFA
+58.0
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
+20.2
Time Adj
--
Net QB Adjustment
+34.1
Home QB Adjustment
+31.5
Away QB Adjustment
-2.6
Market Regression
+3.8
Final Difference
171.0
Model Spread
-7.0

Quarterbacks

B. Osweiler headshot

B. Osweiler

Proj. Value
-2.8
Team Elo Adj
-2.6
Value
Ptile
09/18
-3.5
23
09/22
-4.6
16
10/02
1.0
56
10/09
-8.0
5
10/16
0.5
53
10/24
-2.8
28
10/30
-5.8
13
11/13
-2.0
34
11/21
-0.1
47
11/27
-3.3
24
A. Rodgers headshot

A. Rodgers

Proj. Value
+0.2
Team Elo Adj
+31.5
Value
Ptile
09/18
-2.7
29
09/25
3.7
76
10/09
-2.5
29
10/16
2.6
69
10/20
7.4
91
10/30
8.9
95
11/06
3.3
74
11/13
1.0
57
11/20
8.0
92
11/28
9.8
96

Team Matchup Ranks

Texans Offense vs Packers Defense
Texans logo
Packers logo

Total

Points / Game
28
25
Yards / Game
29
25
Passing Yards / Game
28
29
Rushing Yards / Game
7
10

EPA

EPA / Play
31
31
EPA / Pass
29
28
EPA / Rush
26
14

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
9
11
Interceptions / Game
25
8
Fumbles / Game
10
22
Turnover EPA / Game
11
21

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
27
26
4th Down Efficiency
29
24
RZ Efficiency
31
27
Packers Offense vs Texans Defense
Packers logo
Texans logo

Total

Points / Game
4
12
Yards / Game
7
1
Passing Yards / Game
6
7
Rushing Yards / Game
22
11

EPA

EPA / Play
3
3
EPA / Pass
3
4
EPA / Rush
8
4

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
20
22
Interceptions / Game
7
13
Fumbles / Game
12
25
Turnover EPA / Game
28
17

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
3
7
4th Down Efficiency
19
3
RZ Efficiency
7
16

Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)

HOU logo

Texans

5-5
SU
4-5-1
ATS
5-5
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
09/18
7
W
W
U
09/22
-27
L
L
U
10/02
7
W
W
O
10/09
-18
L
L
O
10/16
3
W
P
O
10/24
-18
L
L
U
10/30
7
W
W
U
11/13
3
W
W
O
11/21
-7
L
L
O
11/27
-8
L
L
U
GB logo

Packers

4-6
SU
4-5-1
ATS
5-5
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
09/18
-3
L
L
U
09/25
7
W
W
O
10/09
7
W
P
U
10/16
-14
L
L
U
10/20
16
W
W
U
10/30
-1
L
W
O
11/06
-5
L
L
O
11/13
-22
L
L
O
11/20
-18
L
L
O
11/28
14
W
W
U