HOUTexans
6-5
13
TBD
Lambeau Field
32°F
8 mph
21
GBPackers
5-6
TBD
Lambeau Field
32°F
8 mph
Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Texans
0
0
7
6
13
Packers
0
7
0
14
21
Spread
-7
Total
UNDER
44.5
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
310
309
Total Plays
64
57
Yards / Play
4.8
5.4
EPA / Play
-0.12
+0.00
Passing Yards
187
200
Comp/Att
22/35(63%)
20/30(67%)
Yards / Pass
5.3
6.7
EPA / Pass
-0.10
+0.22
Rushing Yards
123
109
Rush Attempts
27
26
Yards / Rush
4.6
4.2
EPA / Rush
+0.02
-0.32
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
17
16
Passing 1st downs
9
9
Rushing 1st downs
8
7
Penalty 1st downs
--
--
3rd Down %
40%
33%
3rd Down Conversions
6
4
3rd Down Attempts
15
12
Red Zone %
100%
67%
Red Zone Conversions
1
2
Red Zone Attempts
1
3
Negative Plays
Turnovers
1
1
Interceptions
0
0
Fumbles
1
1
Turnover EPA
-5.61
-4.87
Sacks
2
1
Sack Yards
-18
-9
Sack EPA
-2.95
-2.03
Penalties
3
4
Penalty Yards
12
30
Penalty EPA
-1.06
-2.46
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
GBPackersFavored
Opening
-6.0
Current
-7.0
Model
-7.0
Win Probability
Market72.8%
Model72.8%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+200
Home nfelo
1,520
Away nfelo
1,431
Home Field
+77.1
Base HFA
+57.2
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
+19.9
Time Adj
--
Net QB Adjustment
+34.1
Home QB Adjustment
+31.5
Away QB Adjustment
-2.6
Market Regression
+17.6
Final Difference
171.0
Model Spread
-7.0
Quarterbacks
B. Osweiler
Proj. Value
-2.8
Team Elo Adj
-2.6
A. Rodgers
Proj. Value
+0.3
Team Elo Adj
+31.5
Team Matchup Ranks
Texans Offense vs Packers Defense
Total
Points / Game
28
25
Yards / Game
29
25
Passing Yards / Game
28
29
Rushing Yards / Game
7
10
EPA
EPA / Play
31
31
EPA / Pass
29
28
EPA / Rush
26
14
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
9
11
Interceptions / Game
25
8
Fumbles / Game
10
22
Turnover EPA / Game
11
21
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
27
26
4th Down Efficiency
29
24
RZ Efficiency
31
27
Packers Offense vs Texans Defense
Total
Points / Game
4
12
Yards / Game
7
1
Passing Yards / Game
6
7
Rushing Yards / Game
22
11
EPA
EPA / Play
3
3
EPA / Pass
3
4
EPA / Rush
8
4
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
20
22
Interceptions / Game
7
13
Fumbles / Game
12
25
Turnover EPA / Game
28
17
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
3
7
4th Down Efficiency
19
3
RZ Efficiency
7
16
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Texans
5-5
SU
4-5-1
ATS
5-5
O/U
Packers
4-6
SU
4-5-1
ATS
5-5
O/U