HOUTexans
0-1
17
TBD
Bank of America Stadium
88°F
6 mph
24
CARPanthers
1-0
TBD
Bank of America Stadium
88°F
6 mph
Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Texans
3
0
7
7
17
Panthers
0
10
7
7
24
Spread
-3
Total
PUSH
41
P
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
300
350
Total Plays
82
72
Yards / Play
3.7
4.9
EPA / Play
-0.10
-0.03
Passing Yards
239
178
Comp/Att
27/58(47%)
18/37(49%)
Yards / Pass
4.1
4.8
EPA / Pass
-0.21
-0.20
Rushing Yards
61
172
Rush Attempts
23
33
Yards / Rush
2.7
5.2
EPA / Rush
-0.02
+0.08
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
21
25
Passing 1st downs
11
13
Rushing 1st downs
5
9
Penalty 1st downs
5
3
3rd Down %
26%
31%
3rd Down Conversions
5
4
3rd Down Attempts
19
13
Red Zone %
67%
50%
Red Zone Conversions
2
1
Red Zone Attempts
3
2
Negative Plays
Turnovers
1
1
Interceptions
1
1
Fumbles
0
0
Turnover EPA
-3.93
-4.35
Sacks
1
2
Sack Yards
-5
-17
Sack EPA
-1.59
-3.22
Penalties
10
10
Penalty Yards
70
92
Penalty EPA
-8.65
-11.61
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
CARPanthersFavored
Opening
-4.0
Current
-3.0
Model
-3.0
Win Probability
Market59.3%
Model59.3%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+97
Home nfelo
1,472
Away nfelo
1,470
Home Field
+95.5
Base HFA
+62.5
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
+21.8
Time Adj
+11.2
Net QB Adjustment
-0.2
Home QB Adjustment
+5.4
Away QB Adjustment
+5.6
Market Regression
-39.9
Final Difference
65.4
Model Spread
-3.0
Quarterbacks
R. Mallett
Proj. Value
-2.9
Team Elo Adj
+5.6
Value
Ptile
C. Newton
Proj. Value
-2.3
Team Elo Adj
+5.4
Team Matchup Ranks
Texans Offense vs Panthers Defense
Total
Points / Game
26
6
Yards / Game
20
5
Passing Yards / Game
10
20
Rushing Yards / Game
16
4
EPA
EPA / Play
28
2
EPA / Pass
26
2
EPA / Rush
22
10
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
27
19
Interceptions / Game
21
1
Fumbles / Game
20
3
Turnover EPA / Game
17
32
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
18
9
4th Down Efficiency
32
25
RZ Efficiency
14
8
Panthers Offense vs Texans Defense
Total
Points / Game
1
10
Yards / Game
11
3
Passing Yards / Game
17
4
Rushing Yards / Game
2
11
EPA
EPA / Play
4
3
EPA / Pass
7
4
EPA / Rush
3
12
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
31
17
Interceptions / Game
8
14
Fumbles / Game
26
22
Turnover EPA / Game
22
14
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
6
1
4th Down Efficiency
9
24
RZ Efficiency
1
19
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Texans
6-4
SU
5-4-1
ATS
5-5
O/U
Panthers
6-4
SU
5-5
ATS
5-5
O/U