HOUTexans
-
20
TBD
Gillette Stadium
62°F
10 mph
27
NEPatriots
-
TBD
Gillette Stadium
62°F
10 mph
Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Texans
3
3
7
7
20
Patriots
7
14
3
3
27
Spread
-6
Total
UNDER
49.5
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
325
389
Total Plays
71
72
Yards / Play
4.6
5.4
EPA / Play
-0.10
-0.01
Passing Yards
158
267
Comp/Att
17/34(50%)
26/39(67%)
Yards / Pass
4.6
6.8
EPA / Pass
-0.28
+0.07
Rushing Yards
167
122
Rush Attempts
34
31
Yards / Rush
4.9
3.9
EPA / Rush
-0.07
-0.12
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
21
23
Passing 1st downs
8
16
Rushing 1st downs
10
5
Penalty 1st downs
3
2
3rd Down %
18%
29%
3rd Down Conversions
2
4
3rd Down Attempts
11
14
Red Zone %
40%
75%
Red Zone Conversions
2
3
Red Zone Attempts
5
4
Negative Plays
Turnovers
3
2
Interceptions
1
1
Fumbles
2
1
Turnover EPA
-3.94
-7.13
Sacks
3
2
Sack Yards
-18
-10
Sack EPA
-3.88
-2.56
Penalties
6
6
Penalty Yards
44
36
Penalty EPA
-4.94
-5.03
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
NEPatriotsFavored
Opening
-6.5
Current
-6.0
Model
-8.0
Win Probability
Market69.3%
Model76.0%
Spread Pick
Patriots-6.0
Expected Value
+17.9%
Cover Probability
59.9%
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+247
Home nfelo
1,631
Away nfelo
1,435
Home Field
+66.4
Base HFA
+56.4
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
--
Time Adj
+10.1
Net QB Adjustment
-15.1
Home QB Adjustment
+11.4
Away QB Adjustment
+26.5
Market Regression
-5.6
Final Difference
200.3
Model Spread
-8.0
Quarterbacks
D. Watson
Proj. Value
-2.3
Team Elo Adj
+26.5
T. Brady
Proj. Value
+2.8
Team Elo Adj
+11.4
Team Matchup Ranks
Texans Offense vs Patriots Defense
Total
Points / Game
12
6
Yards / Game
15
15
Passing Yards / Game
10
9
Rushing Yards / Game
7
7
EPA
EPA / Play
15
7
EPA / Pass
13
5
EPA / Rush
21
13
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
19
32
Interceptions / Game
6
5
Fumbles / Game
17
14
Turnover EPA / Game
32
20
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
24
15
4th Down Efficiency
14
4
RZ Efficiency
28
24
Patriots Offense vs Texans Defense
Total
Points / Game
4
5
Yards / Game
4
14
Passing Yards / Game
25
22
Rushing Yards / Game
5
4
EPA
EPA / Play
4
5
EPA / Pass
7
13
EPA / Rush
6
2
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
4
1
Interceptions / Game
12
10
Fumbles / Game
8
4
Turnover EPA / Game
27
25
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
9
25
4th Down Efficiency
19
21
RZ Efficiency
10
31
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Texans
1-9
SU
3-7
ATS
3-7
O/U
Patriots
8-2
SU
7-3
ATS
4-6
O/U