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  1. nfelo...
  2. predictions...
  3. texans @ patriots week 1, 2018

Game Summary

Spread
Total

Model

Quarterbacks

Matchup

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HOU logo
HOUTexans
-
20
TBD
Gillette Stadium
62°F
10 mph
27
NEPatriots
-
NE logo
TBD
Gillette Stadium
62°F
10 mph

Game Summary

Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Texans
3
3
7
7
20
Patriots
7
14
3
3
27

Spread

NE logo
-6

Total

UNDER
49.5

Game Statistics

General
Texans logo
Patriots logo
Total Yards
325
389
Total Plays
71
72
Yards / Play
4.6
5.4
EPA / Play
-0.10
-0.01
Passing Yards
158
267
Comp/Att
17/34(50%)
26/39(67%)
Yards / Pass
4.6
6.8
EPA / Pass
-0.28
+0.07
Rushing Yards
167
122
Rush Attempts
34
31
Yards / Rush
4.9
3.9
EPA / Rush
-0.07
-0.12
Downs & Conversions
Texans logo
Patriots logo
1st Downs
21
23
Passing 1st downs
8
16
Rushing 1st downs
10
5
Penalty 1st downs
3
2
3rd Down %
18%
29%
3rd Down Conversions
2
4
3rd Down Attempts
11
14
Red Zone %
40%
75%
Red Zone Conversions
2
3
Red Zone Attempts
5
4
Negative Plays
Texans logo
Patriots logo
Turnovers
3
2
Interceptions
1
1
Fumbles
2
1
Turnover EPA
-3.94
-7.13
Sacks
3
2
Sack Yards
-18
-10
Sack EPA
-3.88
-2.56
Penalties
6
6
Penalty Yards
44
36
Penalty EPA
-4.94
-5.03

Game Preview

nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game

Model

Projected Winner
NE logo
NEPatriotsFavored
Opening
-6.5
Current
-6.0
Model
-8.0

Win Probability

Market69.3%
Model75.9%
Spread Pick
NE logo
Patriots-6.0
Projected +EV
Expected Value
+17.9%
Cover Probability
59.9%
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+246
Home nfelo
1,629
Away nfelo
1,434
Home Field
+67.3
Base HFA
+57.0
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
--
Time Adj
+10.2
Net QB Adjustment
-15.1
Home QB Adjustment
+11.4
Away QB Adjustment
+26.5
Market Regression
-5.7
Final Difference
199.8
Model Spread
-8.0

Quarterbacks

D. Watson headshot

D. Watson

Proj. Value
-2.5
Team Elo Adj
+26.5
Value
Ptile
09/14
1.6
64
09/24
1.7
66
10/01
9.6
97
10/08
6.5
89
10/15
1.2
61
10/29
5.2
85
T. Brady headshot

T. Brady

Proj. Value
+2.8
Team Elo Adj
+11.4
Value
Ptile
11/19
8.8
95
11/26
1.4
63
12/03
-3.0
31
12/11
-5.6
17
12/17
0.1
52
12/24
1.6
65
12/31
-2.8
34
01/13
9.1
96
01/21
3.3
77
02/04
11.3
99

Team Matchup Ranks

Texans Offense vs Patriots Defense
Texans logo
Patriots logo

Total

Points / Game
12
6
Yards / Game
15
15
Passing Yards / Game
10
9
Rushing Yards / Game
7
7

EPA

EPA / Play
15
7
EPA / Pass
13
5
EPA / Rush
21
13

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
19
32
Interceptions / Game
6
5
Fumbles / Game
17
14
Turnover EPA / Game
32
20

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
24
15
4th Down Efficiency
14
4
RZ Efficiency
28
24
Patriots Offense vs Texans Defense
Patriots logo
Texans logo

Total

Points / Game
4
5
Yards / Game
4
14
Passing Yards / Game
25
22
Rushing Yards / Game
5
4

EPA

EPA / Play
4
5
EPA / Pass
7
13
EPA / Rush
6
2

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
4
1
Interceptions / Game
12
10
Fumbles / Game
8
4
Turnover EPA / Game
27
25

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
9
25
4th Down Efficiency
19
21
RZ Efficiency
10
31

Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)

HOU logo

Texans

1-9
SU
3-7
ATS
3-7
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
10/29
-3
L
W
O
11/05
-6
L
L
U
11/12
-26
L
L
U
11/19
10
W
W
O
11/27
-7
L
W
U
12/03
-11
L
L
U
12/10
-10
L
L
U
12/17
-38
L
L
O
12/25
-28
L
L
U
12/31
-9
L
L
U
NE logo

Patriots

8-2
SU
7-3
ATS
4-6
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
11/19
25
W
W
U
11/26
18
W
W
O
12/03
20
W
W
U
12/11
-7
L
L
U
12/17
3
W
W
U
12/24
21
W
W
O
12/31
20
W
W
U
01/13
21
W
W
O
01/21
4
W
L
U
02/04
-8
L
L
O