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  1. nfelo...
  2. predictions...
  3. texans @ patriots week 3, 2017

Game Summary

Spread
Total

Model

Quarterbacks

Matchup

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nfelo

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HOU logo
HOUTexans
1-1
33
TBD
Gillette Stadium
84°F
4 mph
36
NEPatriots
1-1
NE logo
TBD
Gillette Stadium
84°F
4 mph

Game Summary

Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Texans
10
4
7
6
27
Patriots
7
14
7
8
36

Spread

HOU logo
+13.5

Total

OVER
44.5

Game Statistics

General
Texans logo
Patriots logo
Total Yards
417
398
Total Plays
67
61
Yards / Play
6.2
6.5
EPA / Play
+0.14
+0.09
Passing Yards
292
339
Comp/Att
22/33(67%)
25/36(69%)
Yards / Pass
8.8
9.4
EPA / Pass
+0.20
+0.32
Rushing Yards
125
59
Rush Attempts
32
20
Yards / Rush
3.9
3.0
EPA / Rush
-0.02
-0.31
Downs & Conversions
Texans logo
Patriots logo
1st Downs
23
21
Passing 1st downs
13
16
Rushing 1st downs
7
1
Penalty 1st downs
3
4
3rd Down %
43%
46%
3rd Down Conversions
6
6
3rd Down Attempts
14
13
Red Zone %
33%
100%
Red Zone Conversions
1
2
Red Zone Attempts
3
2
Negative Plays
Texans logo
Patriots logo
Turnovers
2
1
Interceptions
2
0
Fumbles
0
1
Turnover EPA
-6.00
-7.87
Sacks
2
5
Sack Yards
-9
-41
Sack EPA
-2.61
-14.51
Penalties
10
5
Penalty Yards
60
69
Penalty EPA
-6.22
-6.39

Game Preview

nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game

Model

Projected Winner
NE logo
NEPatriotsFavored
Opening
-13.0
Current
-13.5
Model
-13.5

Win Probability

Market86.2%
Model86.0%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+264
Home nfelo
1,668
Away nfelo
1,436
Home Field
+68.6
Base HFA
+58.2
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
--
Time Adj
+10.4
Net QB Adjustment
-36.8
Home QB Adjustment
+17.6
Away QB Adjustment
+54.4
Market Regression
+15.5
Final Difference
315.5
Model Spread
-13.5

Quarterbacks

D. Watson headshot

D. Watson

Proj. Value
-2.5
Team Elo Adj
+54.4
Value
Ptile
09/14
1.6
64
T. Brady headshot

T. Brady

Proj. Value
+2.8
Team Elo Adj
+17.6
Value
Ptile
12/04
4.1
79
12/12
7.0
90
12/18
-3.3
24
12/24
2.7
70
01/01
8.0
93
01/14
-3.3
25
01/22
9.6
96
02/05
5.5
84
09/07
-4.8
20
09/17
10.5
98

Team Matchup Ranks

Texans Offense vs Patriots Defense
Texans logo
Patriots logo

Total

Points / Game
17
7
Yards / Game
20
30
Passing Yards / Game
12
28
Rushing Yards / Game
13
20

EPA

EPA / Play
21
26
EPA / Pass
25
24
EPA / Rush
12
30

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
10
21
Interceptions / Game
27
22
Fumbles / Game
28
30
Turnover EPA / Game
4
3

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
22
22
4th Down Efficiency
13
17
RZ Efficiency
20
7
Patriots Offense vs Texans Defense
Patriots logo
Texans logo

Total

Points / Game
2
32
Yards / Game
1
20
Passing Yards / Game
2
22
Rushing Yards / Game
15
12

EPA

EPA / Play
1
30
EPA / Pass
1
25
EPA / Rush
8
16

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
28
2
Interceptions / Game
2
18
Fumbles / Game
6
31
Turnover EPA / Game
31
10

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
8
5
4th Down Efficiency
4
27
RZ Efficiency
3
27

Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)

HOU logo

Texans

5-5
SU
3-7
ATS
3-7
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
11/27
-8
L
L
U
12/04
-8
L
L
U
12/11
5
W
W
U
12/18
1
W
L
O
12/24
2
W
L
U
01/01
-7
L
L
U
01/07
13
W
W
O
01/14
-18
L
L
O
09/10
-22
L
L
U
09/14
4
W
W
U
NE logo

Patriots

9-1
SU
9-1
ATS
7-3
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
12/04
16
W
W
U
12/12
7
W
W
O
12/18
13
W
W
U
12/24
38
W
W
U
01/01
21
W
W
O
01/14
18
W
W
O
01/22
19
W
W
O
02/05
6
W
W
O
09/07
-15
L
L
O
09/17
16
W
W
O