HOUTexans
1-1
33
TBD
Gillette Stadium
84°F
4 mph
36
NEPatriots
1-1
TBD
Gillette Stadium
84°F
4 mph
Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Texans
10
4
7
6
27
Patriots
7
14
7
8
36
Spread
+13.5
Total
OVER
44.5
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
417
398
Total Plays
67
61
Yards / Play
6.2
6.5
EPA / Play
+0.14
+0.09
Passing Yards
292
339
Comp/Att
22/33(67%)
25/36(69%)
Yards / Pass
8.8
9.4
EPA / Pass
+0.20
+0.32
Rushing Yards
125
59
Rush Attempts
32
20
Yards / Rush
3.9
3.0
EPA / Rush
-0.02
-0.31
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
23
21
Passing 1st downs
13
16
Rushing 1st downs
7
1
Penalty 1st downs
3
4
3rd Down %
43%
46%
3rd Down Conversions
6
6
3rd Down Attempts
14
13
Red Zone %
33%
100%
Red Zone Conversions
1
2
Red Zone Attempts
3
2
Negative Plays
Turnovers
2
1
Interceptions
2
0
Fumbles
0
1
Turnover EPA
-6.00
-7.87
Sacks
2
5
Sack Yards
-9
-41
Sack EPA
-2.61
-14.51
Penalties
10
5
Penalty Yards
60
69
Penalty EPA
-6.22
-6.39
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
NEPatriotsFavored
Opening
-13.0
Current
-13.5
Model
-13.5
Win Probability
Market86.2%
Model86.0%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+263
Home nfelo
1,668
Away nfelo
1,436
Home Field
+67.7
Base HFA
+57.4
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
--
Time Adj
+10.3
Net QB Adjustment
-36.8
Home QB Adjustment
+17.6
Away QB Adjustment
+54.4
Market Regression
+15.5
Final Difference
315.4
Model Spread
-13.5
Quarterbacks
D. Watson
Proj. Value
-2.3
Team Elo Adj
+54.4
Value
Ptile
T. Brady
Proj. Value
+2.8
Team Elo Adj
+17.6
Team Matchup Ranks
Texans Offense vs Patriots Defense
Total
Points / Game
17
7
Yards / Game
20
30
Passing Yards / Game
12
28
Rushing Yards / Game
13
20
EPA
EPA / Play
21
26
EPA / Pass
25
24
EPA / Rush
12
30
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
10
21
Interceptions / Game
27
22
Fumbles / Game
28
30
Turnover EPA / Game
4
3
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
22
22
4th Down Efficiency
13
17
RZ Efficiency
20
7
Patriots Offense vs Texans Defense
Total
Points / Game
2
32
Yards / Game
1
20
Passing Yards / Game
2
22
Rushing Yards / Game
15
12
EPA
EPA / Play
1
30
EPA / Pass
1
25
EPA / Rush
8
16
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
28
2
Interceptions / Game
2
18
Fumbles / Game
6
31
Turnover EPA / Game
31
10
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
8
5
4th Down Efficiency
4
27
RZ Efficiency
3
27
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Texans
5-5
SU
3-7
ATS
3-7
O/U
Patriots
9-1
SU
9-1
ATS
7-3
O/U