HOUTexans
13-4
28
TBD
Gillette Stadium
51°F
10 mph
41
NEPatriots
12-4
TBD
Gillette Stadium
51°F
10 mph
Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Texans
3
10
0
15
28
Patriots
7
10
14
10
41
Spread
-9.5
Total
OVER
50.5
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
427
457
Total Plays
76
65
Yards / Play
5.6
7.0
EPA / Play
+0.19
+0.41
Passing Yards
336
335
Comp/Att
34/52(65%)
25/40(63%)
Yards / Pass
6.5
8.4
EPA / Pass
+0.05
+0.40
Rushing Yards
91
122
Rush Attempts
23
24
Yards / Rush
4.0
5.1
EPA / Rush
+0.16
+0.14
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
25
24
Passing 1st downs
19
15
Rushing 1st downs
5
8
Penalty 1st downs
1
1
3rd Down %
27%
46%
3rd Down Conversions
4
6
3rd Down Attempts
15
13
Red Zone %
67%
67%
Red Zone Conversions
2
4
Red Zone Attempts
3
6
Negative Plays
Turnovers
1
0
Interceptions
1
0
Fumbles
0
0
Turnover EPA
-3.84
--
Sacks
1
1
Sack Yards
-9
-9
Sack EPA
-1.76
-1.63
Penalties
3
5
Penalty Yards
20
56
Penalty EPA
-2.81
-7.32
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
NEPatriotsFavored
Opening
-9.0
Current
-9.5
Model
-9.5
Win Probability
Market78.5%
Model78.5%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+248
Home nfelo
1,710
Away nfelo
1,582
Home Field
+91.0
Base HFA
+62.5
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
+17.9
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
+21.8
Time Adj
-11.2
Net QB Adjustment
+6.8
Home QB Adjustment
-0.4
Away QB Adjustment
-7.2
Market Regression
+8.1
Final Difference
225.0
Model Spread
-9.5
Quarterbacks
M. Schaub
Proj. Value
-1.0
Team Elo Adj
-7.2
T. Brady
Proj. Value
+2.8
Team Elo Adj
-0.4
Team Matchup Ranks
Texans Offense vs Patriots Defense
Total
Points / Game
11
10
Yards / Game
6
26
Passing Yards / Game
20
31
Rushing Yards / Game
8
8
EPA
EPA / Play
11
17
EPA / Pass
9
19
EPA / Rush
14
4
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
26
30
Interceptions / Game
11
6
Fumbles / Game
1
2
Turnover EPA / Game
28
31
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
18
20
4th Down Efficiency
10
13
RZ Efficiency
14
23
Patriots Offense vs Texans Defense
Total
Points / Game
1
9
Yards / Game
1
7
Passing Yards / Game
9
26
Rushing Yards / Game
7
6
EPA
EPA / Play
1
6
EPA / Pass
1
4
EPA / Rush
3
7
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
16
28
Interceptions / Game
5
16
Fumbles / Game
8
8
Turnover EPA / Game
26
23
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
1
2
4th Down Efficiency
5
3
RZ Efficiency
1
10
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Texans
7-3
SU
5-5
ATS
3-7
O/U
Patriots
9-1
SU
5-4-1
ATS
7-3
O/U