HOUTexans
10-7
16
TBD
Gillette Stadium
28°F
6 mph
34
NEPatriots
14-2
TBD
Gillette Stadium
28°F
6 mph
Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Texans
3
10
0
3
16
Patriots
14
3
7
10
34
Spread
-16.5
Total
OVER
44
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
285
377
Total Plays
66
67
Yards / Play
4.3
5.6
EPA / Play
-0.36
-0.11
Passing Yards
180
279
Comp/Att
23/40(57%)
18/38(47%)
Yards / Pass
4.5
7.3
EPA / Pass
-0.47
-0.00
Rushing Yards
105
98
Rush Attempts
23
27
Yards / Rush
4.6
3.6
EPA / Rush
-0.01
-0.21
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
14
20
Passing 1st downs
8
12
Rushing 1st downs
4
6
Penalty 1st downs
2
2
3rd Down %
19%
36%
3rd Down Conversions
3
5
3rd Down Attempts
16
14
Red Zone %
33%
75%
Red Zone Conversions
1
3
Red Zone Attempts
3
4
Negative Plays
Turnovers
3
3
Interceptions
3
2
Fumbles
0
1
Turnover EPA
-14.38
-15.33
Sacks
3
2
Sack Yards
-17
-8
Sack EPA
-4.81
-3.58
Penalties
5
5
Penalty Yards
75
50
Penalty EPA
-7.05
-6.21
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
NEPatriotsFavored
Opening
-16.0
Current
-16.5
Model
-16.5
Win Probability
Market90.4%
Model90.4%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+402
Home nfelo
1,695
Away nfelo
1,441
Home Field
+63.5
Base HFA
+57.3
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
+16.4
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
--
Time Adj
-10.3
Net QB Adjustment
+47.3
Home QB Adjustment
+48.5
Away QB Adjustment
+1.2
Market Regression
+11.7
Final Difference
389.6
Model Spread
-16.5
Quarterbacks
B. Osweiler
Proj. Value
-2.8
Team Elo Adj
+1.2
T. Brady
Proj. Value
+2.8
Team Elo Adj
+48.5
Team Matchup Ranks
Texans Offense vs Patriots Defense
Total
Points / Game
28
1
Yards / Game
29
8
Passing Yards / Game
28
6
Rushing Yards / Game
7
3
EPA
EPA / Play
31
5
EPA / Pass
29
8
EPA / Rush
26
13
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
9
27
Interceptions / Game
25
12
Fumbles / Game
10
10
Turnover EPA / Game
11
19
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
27
4
4th Down Efficiency
29
7
RZ Efficiency
31
12
Patriots Offense vs Texans Defense
Total
Points / Game
3
12
Yards / Game
4
1
Passing Yards / Game
8
7
Rushing Yards / Game
12
11
EPA
EPA / Play
2
3
EPA / Pass
2
4
EPA / Rush
16
4
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
17
22
Interceptions / Game
1
13
Fumbles / Game
14
25
Turnover EPA / Game
31
17
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
2
7
4th Down Efficiency
6
3
RZ Efficiency
8
16
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Texans
6-4
SU
4-6
ATS
4-6
O/U
Patriots
9-1
SU
8-2
ATS
4-6
O/U