HOUTexans
2-1
31
TBD
Ring Central Coliseum
71°F
15 mph
24
OAKRaiders
1-2
TBD
Ring Central Coliseum
71°F
15 mph
Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Texans
14
0
10
7
31
Raiders
7
7
0
10
24
Spread
-3.5
Total
OVER
43.5
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
441
363
Total Plays
65
68
Yards / Play
6.8
5.3
EPA / Play
+0.23
+0.07
Passing Yards
--
245
Comp/Att
16/29(55%)
24/39(62%)
Yards / Pass
--
6.3
EPA / Pass
+0.30
-0.09
Rushing Yards
249
118
Rush Attempts
36
25
Yards / Rush
6.9
4.7
EPA / Rush
+0.26
+0.07
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
21
24
Passing 1st downs
11
14
Rushing 1st downs
10
8
Penalty 1st downs
--
2
3rd Down %
46%
42%
3rd Down Conversions
6
5
3rd Down Attempts
13
12
Red Zone %
67%
100%
Red Zone Conversions
2
3
Red Zone Attempts
3
3
Negative Plays
Turnovers
0
3
Interceptions
0
2
Fumbles
0
1
Turnover EPA
--
-10.46
Sacks
--
4
Sack Yards
--
-33
Sack EPA
--
-8.22
Penalties
5
2
Penalty Yards
26
23
Penalty EPA
-2.92
-2.23
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
HOUTexansFavored
Opening
-3.0
Current
-3.5
Model
-4.0
Win Probability
Market62.9%
Model66.0%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
-152
Home nfelo
1,365
Away nfelo
1,533
Home Field
+62.5
Base HFA
+62.5
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
--
Time Adj
--
Net QB Adjustment
-46.9
Home QB Adjustment
-44.9
Away QB Adjustment
+2.0
Market Regression
-6.5
Final Difference
-114.9
Model Spread
+4.0
Quarterbacks
M. Schaub
Proj. Value
-1.0
Team Elo Adj
+2.0
B. Gradkowski
Proj. Value
-2.1
Team Elo Adj
-44.9
Team Matchup Ranks
Texans Offense vs Raiders Defense
Total
Points / Game
11
20
Yards / Game
3
11
Passing Yards / Game
13
9
Rushing Yards / Game
7
29
EPA
EPA / Play
2
19
EPA / Pass
5
11
EPA / Rush
4
16
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
9
6
Interceptions / Game
7
26
Fumbles / Game
3
22
Turnover EPA / Game
29
6
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
9
6
4th Down Efficiency
14
2
RZ Efficiency
5
17
Raiders Offense vs Texans Defense
Total
Points / Game
5
29
Yards / Game
10
29
Passing Yards / Game
18
30
Rushing Yards / Game
2
14
EPA
EPA / Play
11
32
EPA / Pass
22
32
EPA / Rush
5
27
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
30
21
Interceptions / Game
16
23
Fumbles / Game
22
32
Turnover EPA / Game
26
3
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
25
20
4th Down Efficiency
22
32
RZ Efficiency
18
31
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Texans
6-4
SU
4-6
ATS
4-5-1
O/U
Raiders
4-6
SU
5-5
ATS
6-4
O/U