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  1. nfelo...
  2. predictions...
  3. texans @ raiders week 4, 2010

Game Summary

Spread
Total

Model

Quarterbacks

Matchup

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nfelo

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    Offensive and Defensive EPA Tiers
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    Projected and realized opponent quality
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    Win total projections and results

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HOU logo
HOUTexans
2-1
31
TBD
Ring Central Coliseum
71°F
15 mph
24
OAKRaiders
1-2
OAK logo
TBD
Ring Central Coliseum
71°F
15 mph

Game Summary

Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Texans
14
0
10
7
31
Raiders
7
7
0
10
24

Spread

HOU logo
-3.5

Total

OVER
43.5

Game Statistics

General
Texans logo
Raiders logo
Total Yards
441
363
Total Plays
65
68
Yards / Play
6.8
5.3
EPA / Play
+0.23
+0.07
Passing Yards
--
245
Comp/Att
16/29(55%)
24/39(62%)
Yards / Pass
--
6.3
EPA / Pass
+0.30
-0.09
Rushing Yards
249
118
Rush Attempts
36
25
Yards / Rush
6.9
4.7
EPA / Rush
+0.26
+0.07
Downs & Conversions
Texans logo
Raiders logo
1st Downs
21
24
Passing 1st downs
11
14
Rushing 1st downs
10
8
Penalty 1st downs
--
2
3rd Down %
46%
42%
3rd Down Conversions
6
5
3rd Down Attempts
13
12
Red Zone %
67%
100%
Red Zone Conversions
2
3
Red Zone Attempts
3
3
Negative Plays
Texans logo
Raiders logo
Turnovers
0
3
Interceptions
0
2
Fumbles
0
1
Turnover EPA
--
-10.46
Sacks
--
4
Sack Yards
--
-33
Sack EPA
--
-8.22
Penalties
5
2
Penalty Yards
26
23
Penalty EPA
-2.92
-2.23

Game Preview

nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game

Model

Projected Winner
HOU logo
HOUTexansFavored
Opening
-3.0
Current
-3.5
Model
-4.0

Win Probability

Market62.9%
Model65.6%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
-146
Home nfelo
1,368
Away nfelo
1,529
Home Field
+62.5
Base HFA
+62.5
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
--
Time Adj
--
Net QB Adjustment
-46.9
Home QB Adjustment
-44.9
Away QB Adjustment
+2.0
Market Regression
-7.1
Final Difference
-112.5
Model Spread
+4.0

Quarterbacks

M. Schaub headshot

M. Schaub

Proj. Value
-1.0
Team Elo Adj
+2.0
Value
Ptile
11/23
1.9
63
11/29
3.1
70
12/06
-1.2
43
12/13
7.4
90
12/20
7.0
89
12/27
3.0
69
01/03
3.6
73
09/12
-6.1
12
09/19
8.7
95
09/26
-3.1
28
B. Gradkowski headshot

B. Gradkowski

Proj. Value
-2.1
Team Elo Adj
-44.9
Value
Ptile
11/23
-5.3
17
12/03
-9.3
4
12/10
-2.4
34
12/17
-4.6
20
12/28
-11.6
2
11/22
-0.4
47
11/26
-0.5
46
12/06
6.9
88
12/13
-2.4
35
09/26
-3.1
29

Team Matchup Ranks

Texans Offense vs Raiders Defense
Texans logo
Raiders logo

Total

Points / Game
11
20
Yards / Game
3
11
Passing Yards / Game
13
9
Rushing Yards / Game
7
29

EPA

EPA / Play
2
19
EPA / Pass
5
11
EPA / Rush
4
16

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
9
6
Interceptions / Game
7
26
Fumbles / Game
3
22
Turnover EPA / Game
29
6

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
9
6
4th Down Efficiency
14
2
RZ Efficiency
5
17
Raiders Offense vs Texans Defense
Raiders logo
Texans logo

Total

Points / Game
5
29
Yards / Game
10
29
Passing Yards / Game
18
30
Rushing Yards / Game
2
14

EPA

EPA / Play
11
32
EPA / Pass
22
32
EPA / Rush
5
27

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
30
21
Interceptions / Game
16
23
Fumbles / Game
22
32
Turnover EPA / Game
26
3

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
25
20
4th Down Efficiency
22
32
RZ Efficiency
18
31

Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)

HOU logo

Texans

6-4
SU
4-6
ATS
4-5-1
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
11/23
-3
L
L
U
11/29
-8
L
L
O
12/06
-5
L
L
U
12/13
27
W
W
U
12/20
3
W
L
U
12/27
7
W
W
P
01/03
7
W
L
O
09/12
10
W
W
O
09/19
3
W
W
O
09/26
-14
L
L
U
OAK logo

Raiders

4-6
SU
5-5
ATS
6-4
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
11/22
3
W
W
O
11/26
-17
L
L
U
12/06
3
W
W
O
12/13
-21
L
L
O
12/20
1
W
W
O
12/27
-14
L
L
U
01/03
-8
L
W
U
09/12
-25
L
L
O
09/19
2
W
L
U
09/26
-1
L
W
O