HOUTexans
6-3
20
TBD
Azteca Stadium
63°F
6 mph
27
OAKRaiders
7-2
TBD
Azteca Stadium
63°F
6 mph
Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Texans
3
7
7
3
20
Raiders
0
10
3
14
27
Spread
-6.5
Total
OVER
45.5
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
354
325
Total Plays
74
51
Yards / Play
4.8
6.4
EPA / Play
+0.03
+0.20
Passing Yards
230
--
Comp/Att
26/39(67%)
21/31(68%)
Yards / Pass
5.9
--
EPA / Pass
+0.27
+0.38
Rushing Yards
124
30
Rush Attempts
33
20
Yards / Rush
3.8
1.5
EPA / Rush
-0.17
-0.41
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
22
16
Passing 1st downs
14
9
Rushing 1st downs
6
3
Penalty 1st downs
2
4
3rd Down %
50%
36%
3rd Down Conversions
8
4
3rd Down Attempts
16
11
Red Zone %
33%
25%
Red Zone Conversions
2
1
Red Zone Attempts
6
4
Negative Plays
Turnovers
2
1
Interceptions
1
1
Fumbles
1
0
Turnover EPA
-8.27
-1.89
Sacks
2
--
Sack Yards
-13
--
Sack EPA
-1.11
--
Penalties
7
4
Penalty Yards
101
21
Penalty EPA
-13.33
-4.98
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
OAKRaidersFavored
Opening
-5.0
Current
-6.5
Model
-6.5
Win Probability
Market71.0%
Model71.0%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+145
Home nfelo
1,531
Away nfelo
1,472
Home Field
+56.8
Base HFA
--
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
+16.4
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
+19.9
Time Adj
+20.5
Net QB Adjustment
+29.6
Home QB Adjustment
+25.0
Away QB Adjustment
-4.6
Market Regression
+31.7
Final Difference
155.5
Model Spread
-6.5
Quarterbacks
B. Osweiler
Proj. Value
-2.8
Team Elo Adj
-4.6
D. Carr
Proj. Value
+1.0
Team Elo Adj
+25.0
Team Matchup Ranks
Texans Offense vs Raiders Defense
Total
Points / Game
28
20
Yards / Game
29
24
Passing Yards / Game
28
19
Rushing Yards / Game
7
23
EPA
EPA / Play
31
14
EPA / Pass
29
21
EPA / Rush
26
16
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
9
31
Interceptions / Game
25
11
Fumbles / Game
10
7
Turnover EPA / Game
11
23
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
27
13
4th Down Efficiency
29
3
RZ Efficiency
31
26
Raiders Offense vs Texans Defense
Total
Points / Game
9
12
Yards / Game
10
1
Passing Yards / Game
26
7
Rushing Yards / Game
6
11
EPA
EPA / Play
15
3
EPA / Pass
17
4
EPA / Rush
17
4
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
1
22
Interceptions / Game
9
13
Fumbles / Game
15
25
Turnover EPA / Game
26
17
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
24
7
4th Down Efficiency
20
3
RZ Efficiency
13
16
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Texans
6-4
SU
5-4-1
ATS
4-6
O/U
Raiders
7-3
SU
7-3
ATS
7-3
O/U