HOUTexans
3-2
14
TBD
M&T Bank Stadium
72°F
10 mph
29
BALRavens
3-1
TBD
M&T Bank Stadium
72°F
10 mph
Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Texans
0
7
7
0
14
Ravens
7
3
6
13
29
Spread
-7
Total
UNDER
43.5
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
293
402
Total Plays
66
65
Yards / Play
4.4
6.2
EPA / Play
-0.10
+0.13
Passing Yards
200
289
Comp/Att
21/37(57%)
20/33(61%)
Yards / Pass
5.4
8.8
EPA / Pass
-0.04
+0.19
Rushing Yards
93
113
Rush Attempts
25
30
Yards / Rush
3.7
3.8
EPA / Rush
-0.18
-0.05
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
18
24
Passing 1st downs
11
15
Rushing 1st downs
5
6
Penalty 1st downs
2
3
3rd Down %
38%
27%
3rd Down Conversions
6
3
3rd Down Attempts
16
11
Red Zone %
100%
50%
Red Zone Conversions
1
2
Red Zone Attempts
1
4
Negative Plays
Turnovers
0
2
Interceptions
0
1
Fumbles
0
1
Turnover EPA
--
-5.42
Sacks
4
2
Sack Yards
-20
-16
Sack EPA
-5.11
-5.98
Penalties
5
5
Penalty Yards
15
25
Penalty EPA
-2.00
-3.04
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
BALRavensFavored
Opening
-7.0
Current
-7.0
Model
-7.0
Win Probability
Market72.8%
Model72.8%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+172
Home nfelo
1,661
Away nfelo
1,577
Home Field
+91.0
Base HFA
+62.5
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
+17.9
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
+21.8
Time Adj
-11.2
Net QB Adjustment
-2.7
Home QB Adjustment
-2.8
Away QB Adjustment
-0.1
Market Regression
--
Final Difference
171.0
Model Spread
-7.0
Quarterbacks
M. Schaub
Proj. Value
-1.0
Team Elo Adj
-0.1
J. Flacco
Proj. Value
-1.0
Team Elo Adj
-2.8
Team Matchup Ranks
Texans Offense vs Ravens Defense
Total
Points / Game
11
3
Yards / Game
13
3
Passing Yards / Game
25
4
Rushing Yards / Game
2
3
EPA
EPA / Play
14
3
EPA / Pass
10
2
EPA / Rush
11
6
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
29
16
Interceptions / Game
4
12
Fumbles / Game
20
10
Turnover EPA / Game
20
26
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
9
3
4th Down Efficiency
30
20
RZ Efficiency
22
1
Ravens Offense vs Texans Defense
Total
Points / Game
14
4
Yards / Game
15
2
Passing Yards / Game
13
11
Rushing Yards / Game
12
2
EPA
EPA / Play
15
2
EPA / Pass
12
1
EPA / Rush
18
4
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
26
24
Interceptions / Game
5
12
Fumbles / Game
23
22
Turnover EPA / Game
23
16
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
7
13
4th Down Efficiency
12
10
RZ Efficiency
17
11
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Texans
4-6
SU
4-6
ATS
5-5
O/U
Ravens
8-2
SU
7-3
ATS
6-4
O/U