HOUTexans
11-7
10
TBD
M&T Bank Stadium
27°F
16 mph
34
BALRavens
13-4
TBD
M&T Bank Stadium
27°F
16 mph
Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Texans
3
1
0
0
4
Ravens
3
7
7
17
34
Spread
-10
Total
PUSH
44
P
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
213
352
Total Plays
47
67
Yards / Play
4.5
5.3
EPA / Play
-0.31
+0.19
Passing Yards
--
123
Comp/Att
19/33(58%)
16/22(73%)
Yards / Pass
--
5.6
EPA / Pass
-0.13
+0.18
Rushing Yards
38
229
Rush Attempts
14
42
Yards / Rush
2.7
5.5
EPA / Rush
-0.42
+0.26
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
10
22
Passing 1st downs
8
10
Rushing 1st downs
1
12
Penalty 1st downs
1
--
3rd Down %
33%
33%
3rd Down Conversions
4
4
3rd Down Attempts
12
12
Red Zone %
NaN%
80%
Red Zone Conversions
--
4
Red Zone Attempts
--
5
Negative Plays
Turnovers
0
0
Interceptions
0
0
Fumbles
0
0
Turnover EPA
--
--
Sacks
--
3
Sack Yards
--
-29
Sack EPA
--
-2.32
Penalties
11
3
Penalty Yards
70
15
Penalty EPA
-6.86
-2.56
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
BALRavensFavored
Opening
-10.0
Current
-10.0
Model
-10.0
Win Probability
Market79.5%
Model79.5%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+221
Home nfelo
1,617
Away nfelo
1,479
Home Field
+67.2
Base HFA
+46.1
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
+13.2
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
+16.1
Time Adj
-8.3
Net QB Adjustment
-4.0
Home QB Adjustment
+33.9
Away QB Adjustment
+37.9
Market Regression
--
Final Difference
235.4
Model Spread
-10.0
Quarterbacks
C. Stroud
Proj. Value
-1.9
Team Elo Adj
+37.9
L. Jackson
Proj. Value
+5.8
Team Elo Adj
+33.9
Team Matchup Ranks
Texans Offense vs Ravens Defense
Total
Points / Game
13
1
Yards / Game
15
4
Passing Yards / Game
21
15
Rushing Yards / Game
28
12
EPA
EPA / Play
14
2
EPA / Pass
11
2
EPA / Rush
27
11
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
24
13
Interceptions / Game
1
10
Fumbles / Game
13
20
Turnover EPA / Game
32
22
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
20
9
4th Down Efficiency
31
1
RZ Efficiency
16
2
Ravens Offense vs Texans Defense
Total
Points / Game
4
11
Yards / Game
6
15
Passing Yards / Game
20
6
Rushing Yards / Game
1
8
EPA
EPA / Play
6
13
EPA / Pass
9
16
EPA / Rush
4
9
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
32
15
Interceptions / Game
1
15
Fumbles / Game
30
25
Turnover EPA / Game
18
13
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
11
6
4th Down Efficiency
2
18
RZ Efficiency
7
15
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Texans
7-3
SU
6-4
ATS
4-6
O/U
Ravens
8-2
SU
6-4
ATS
6-4
O/U