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  1. nfelo...
  2. predictions...
  3. texans @ ravens week 20, 2023

Game Summary

Spread
Total

Model

Quarterbacks

Matchup

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HOU logo
HOUTexans
11-7
10
TBD
M&T Bank Stadium
27°F
16 mph
34
BALRavens
13-4
BAL logo
TBD
M&T Bank Stadium
27°F
16 mph

Game Summary

Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Texans
3
1
0
0
4
Ravens
3
7
7
17
34

Spread

BAL logo
-10

Total

PUSH
44
P

Game Statistics

General
Texans logo
Ravens logo
Total Yards
213
352
Total Plays
47
67
Yards / Play
4.5
5.3
EPA / Play
-0.31
+0.19
Passing Yards
--
123
Comp/Att
19/33(58%)
16/22(73%)
Yards / Pass
--
5.6
EPA / Pass
-0.13
+0.18
Rushing Yards
38
229
Rush Attempts
14
42
Yards / Rush
2.7
5.5
EPA / Rush
-0.42
+0.26
Downs & Conversions
Texans logo
Ravens logo
1st Downs
10
22
Passing 1st downs
8
10
Rushing 1st downs
1
12
Penalty 1st downs
1
--
3rd Down %
33%
33%
3rd Down Conversions
4
4
3rd Down Attempts
12
12
Red Zone %
NaN%
80%
Red Zone Conversions
--
4
Red Zone Attempts
--
5
Negative Plays
Texans logo
Ravens logo
Turnovers
0
0
Interceptions
0
0
Fumbles
0
0
Turnover EPA
--
--
Sacks
--
3
Sack Yards
--
-29
Sack EPA
--
-2.32
Penalties
11
3
Penalty Yards
70
15
Penalty EPA
-6.86
-2.56

Game Preview

nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game

Model

Projected Winner
BAL logo
BALRavensFavored
Opening
-10.0
Current
-10.0
Model
-10.0

Win Probability

Market79.5%
Model79.5%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+214
Home nfelo
1,611
Away nfelo
1,479
Home Field
+67.0
Base HFA
+46.0
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
+13.2
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
+16.1
Time Adj
-8.3
Net QB Adjustment
-4.4
Home QB Adjustment
+34.1
Away QB Adjustment
+38.5
Market Regression
--
Final Difference
235.4
Model Spread
-10.0

Quarterbacks

C. Stroud headshot

C. Stroud

Proj. Value
-0.5
Team Elo Adj
+38.5
Value
Ptile
10/29
-0.5
46
11/05
12.9
99
11/12
4.5
78
11/19
-1.8
38
11/26
6.9
90
12/03
-3.0
29
12/10
-8.7
6
12/31
2.1
64
01/06
4.5
78
01/13
8.9
96
L. Jackson headshot

L. Jackson

Proj. Value
+0.7
Team Elo Adj
+34.1
Value
Ptile
10/22
13.8
100
10/29
-4.5
22
11/05
3.6
73
11/12
-2.4
33
11/16
4.1
76
11/26
-1.7
38
12/10
5.9
86
12/17
-0.6
45
12/25
5.9
86
12/31
13.5
99

Team Matchup Ranks

Texans Offense vs Ravens Defense
Texans logo
Ravens logo

Total

Points / Game
13
1
Yards / Game
15
4
Passing Yards / Game
21
15
Rushing Yards / Game
28
12

EPA

EPA / Play
14
2
EPA / Pass
11
2
EPA / Rush
27
11

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
24
13
Interceptions / Game
1
10
Fumbles / Game
13
20
Turnover EPA / Game
32
22

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
20
9
4th Down Efficiency
31
1
RZ Efficiency
16
2
Ravens Offense vs Texans Defense
Ravens logo
Texans logo

Total

Points / Game
4
11
Yards / Game
6
15
Passing Yards / Game
20
6
Rushing Yards / Game
1
8

EPA

EPA / Play
6
13
EPA / Pass
9
16
EPA / Rush
4
9

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
32
15
Interceptions / Game
1
15
Fumbles / Game
30
25
Turnover EPA / Game
18
13

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
11
6
4th Down Efficiency
2
18
RZ Efficiency
7
15

Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)

HOU logo

Texans

7-3
SU
6-4
ATS
4-6
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
11/12
3
W
W
O
11/19
5
W
L
U
11/26
-3
L
L
U
12/03
5
W
W
U
12/10
-24
L
L
O
12/17
3
W
W
U
12/24
-14
L
L
O
12/31
23
W
W
U
01/06
4
W
W
U
01/13
31
W
W
O
BAL logo

Ravens

8-2
SU
6-4
ATS
6-4
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
10/29
7
W
L
O
11/05
34
W
W
U
11/12
-2
L
L
O
11/16
14
W
W
O
11/26
10
W
W
U
12/10
6
W
L
O
12/17
16
W
W
U
12/25
14
W
W
O
12/31
37
W
W
O
01/06
-7
L
L
U