HOU logo
HOU
2-0
33
40
NO
1-1
NO logo
TBD
Mercedes-Benz Superdome
70°F
0

Game Summary

Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Texans
10
6
3
14
33
Saints
0
10
7
23
40

Spread

NO logo
-3.5

Total

OVER
51

Game Statistics

General
Texans logo
Saints logo
Total Yards
473
458
Total Plays
66
70
Yards / Play
7.2
6.5
EPA / Play
+0.17
+0.20
Passing Yards
364
358
Comp/Att
22/39(56%)
31/46(67%)
Yards / Pass
9.3
7.8
EPA / Pass
+0.34
+0.26
Rushing Yards
109
100
Rush Attempts
25
22
Yards / Rush
4.4
4.5
EPA / Rush
-0.06
-0.15
Downs & Conversions
Texans logo
Saints logo
1st Downs
21
27
Passing 1st downs
17
20
Rushing 1st downs
4
5
Penalty 1st downs
--
2
3rd Down %
43%
62%
3rd Down Conversions
6
8
3rd Down Attempts
14
13
Red Zone %
20%
60%
Red Zone Conversions
1
3
Red Zone Attempts
5
5
Negative Plays
Texans logo
Saints logo
Turnovers
1
2
Interceptions
1
2
Fumbles
0
0
Turnover EPA
-3.11
-10.18
Sacks
2
2
Sack Yards
-9
-16
Sack EPA
-2.19
-3.06
Penalties
7
4
Penalty Yards
56
26
Penalty EPA
-11.33
-2.67

Game Preview

nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game

Model

Projected Winner
NO logo
NOFavored
Opening
-5.5
Current
-3.5
Model
-3.5

Win Probability

Market62.5%
Model62.5%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+105
Home nfelo
1,602
Away nfelo
1,599
Home Field
+84.3
Base HFA
+62.5
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
+21.8
Time Adj
--
Net QB Adjustment
+17.5
Home QB Adjustment
+19.7
Away QB Adjustment
+2.2
Market Regression
-42.2
Final Difference
88.7
Model Spread
-3.5

Team Matchup Ranks

Texans Offense vs Saints Defense
Texans logo
Saints logo

Total

Points / Game
11
18
Yards / Game
13
26
Passing Yards / Game
25
18
Rushing Yards / Game
2
11

EPA

EPA / Play
14
19
EPA / Pass
10
15
EPA / Rush
11
19

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
29
29
Interceptions / Game
4
27
Fumbles / Game
20
26
Turnover EPA / Game
20
2

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
9
6
4th Down Efficiency
30
4
RZ Efficiency
22
30
Saints Offense vs Texans Defense
Saints logo
Texans logo

Total

Points / Game
1
4
Yards / Game
1
2
Passing Yards / Game
6
11
Rushing Yards / Game
7
2

EPA

EPA / Play
3
2
EPA / Pass
2
1
EPA / Rush
5
4

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
14
24
Interceptions / Game
16
12
Fumbles / Game
12
22
Turnover EPA / Game
17
16

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
1
13
4th Down Efficiency
14
10
RZ Efficiency
6
11