
HOUTexans
2-0
33
TBD
Mercedes-Benz Superdome
70°F
040
NOSaints
1-1

TBD
Mercedes-Benz Superdome
70°F
0Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Texans
10
6
3
14
33
Saints
0
10
7
23
40
Spread

-3.5
Total
OVER
51
Game Statistics
General


Total Yards
473
458
Total Plays
66
70
Yards / Play
7.2
6.5
EPA / Play
+0.17
+0.20
Passing Yards
364
358
Comp/Att
22/39(56%)
31/46(67%)
Yards / Pass
9.3
7.8
EPA / Pass
+0.34
+0.26
Rushing Yards
109
100
Rush Attempts
25
22
Yards / Rush
4.4
4.5
EPA / Rush
-0.06
-0.15
Downs & Conversions


1st Downs
21
27
Passing 1st downs
17
20
Rushing 1st downs
4
5
Penalty 1st downs
--
2
3rd Down %
43%
62%
3rd Down Conversions
6
8
3rd Down Attempts
14
13
Red Zone %
20%
60%
Red Zone Conversions
1
3
Red Zone Attempts
5
5
Negative Plays


Turnovers
1
2
Interceptions
1
2
Fumbles
0
0
Turnover EPA
-3.11
-10.18
Sacks
2
2
Sack Yards
-9
-16
Sack EPA
-2.19
-3.06
Penalties
7
4
Penalty Yards
56
26
Penalty EPA
-11.33
-2.67
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner

NOSaintsFavored
Opening
-5.5
Current
-3.5
Model
-3.5
Win Probability
Market62.5%
Model62.5%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+105
Home nfelo
1,602
Away nfelo
1,599
Home Field
+84.3
Base HFA
+62.5
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
+21.8
Time Adj
--
Net QB Adjustment
+17.5
Home QB Adjustment
+19.7
Away QB Adjustment
+2.2
Market Regression
-42.2
Final Difference
88.7
Model Spread
-3.5
Quarterbacks

M. Schaub
Proj. Value
-1.0
Team Elo Adj
+2.2

D. Brees
Proj. Value
+1.4
Team Elo Adj
+19.7
Team Matchup Ranks
Texans Offense vs Saints Defense


Total
Points / Game
11
18
Yards / Game
13
26
Passing Yards / Game
25
18
Rushing Yards / Game
2
11
EPA
EPA / Play
14
19
EPA / Pass
10
15
EPA / Rush
11
19
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
29
29
Interceptions / Game
4
27
Fumbles / Game
20
26
Turnover EPA / Game
20
2
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
9
6
4th Down Efficiency
30
4
RZ Efficiency
22
30
Saints Offense vs Texans Defense


Total
Points / Game
1
4
Yards / Game
1
2
Passing Yards / Game
6
11
Rushing Yards / Game
7
2
EPA
EPA / Play
3
2
EPA / Pass
2
1
EPA / Rush
5
4
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
14
24
Interceptions / Game
16
12
Fumbles / Game
12
22
Turnover EPA / Game
17
16
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
1
13
4th Down Efficiency
14
10
RZ Efficiency
6
11
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)

Texans
4-6
SU
5-5
ATS
6-4
O/U

Saints
6-4
SU
4-6
ATS
6-4
O/U