HOUTexans
3-3
38
TBD
Lumen Field
50°F
2 mph
41
SEASeahawks
4-2
TBD
Lumen Field
50°F
2 mph
Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Texans
14
7
3
14
38
Seahawks
8
7
6
14
35
Spread
+6.5
Total
OVER
45
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
509
479
Total Plays
69
64
Yards / Play
7.4
7.5
EPA / Play
+0.18
+0.17
Passing Yards
367
446
Comp/Att
19/30(63%)
26/41(63%)
Yards / Pass
12.2
10.9
EPA / Pass
+0.31
+0.35
Rushing Yards
142
33
Rush Attempts
34
21
Yards / Rush
4.2
1.6
EPA / Rush
+0.08
-0.32
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
25
21
Passing 1st downs
15
15
Rushing 1st downs
8
3
Penalty 1st downs
2
3
3rd Down %
20%
42%
3rd Down Conversions
2
5
3rd Down Attempts
10
12
Red Zone %
67%
60%
Red Zone Conversions
2
3
Red Zone Attempts
3
5
Negative Plays
Turnovers
3
1
Interceptions
3
1
Fumbles
0
0
Turnover EPA
-15.39
-4.36
Sacks
5
2
Sack Yards
-35
-6
Sack EPA
-6.74
-0.98
Penalties
8
10
Penalty Yards
93
120
Penalty EPA
-14.55
-15.77
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
SEASeahawksFavored
Opening
-5.5
Current
-6.5
Model
-6.5
Win Probability
Market71.0%
Model71.0%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+129
Home nfelo
1,612
Away nfelo
1,439
Home Field
+12.6
Base HFA
+56.6
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
-44.0
Surface Adj
--
Time Adj
--
Net QB Adjustment
-56.0
Home QB Adjustment
+13.1
Away QB Adjustment
+69.1
Market Regression
+24.6
Final Difference
155.5
Model Spread
-6.5
Quarterbacks
D. Watson
Proj. Value
-2.3
Team Elo Adj
+69.1
R. Wilson
Proj. Value
+0.3
Team Elo Adj
+13.1
Team Matchup Ranks
Texans Offense vs Seahawks Defense
Total
Points / Game
17
9
Yards / Game
20
11
Passing Yards / Game
12
9
Rushing Yards / Game
13
20
EPA
EPA / Play
21
8
EPA / Pass
25
6
EPA / Rush
12
14
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
10
10
Interceptions / Game
27
14
Fumbles / Game
28
9
Turnover EPA / Game
4
28
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
22
16
4th Down Efficiency
13
15
RZ Efficiency
20
6
Seahawks Offense vs Texans Defense
Total
Points / Game
12
32
Yards / Game
15
20
Passing Yards / Game
9
22
Rushing Yards / Game
23
12
EPA
EPA / Play
19
30
EPA / Pass
13
25
EPA / Rush
24
16
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
20
2
Interceptions / Game
13
18
Fumbles / Game
7
31
Turnover EPA / Game
25
10
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
20
5
4th Down Efficiency
7
27
RZ Efficiency
12
27
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Texans
5-5
SU
5-5
ATS
6-4
O/U
Seahawks
6-4
SU
4-6
ATS
5-5
O/U