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  1. nfelo...
  2. predictions...
  3. texans @ steelers week 19, 2025

Game Summary

Spread
Total

Model

Quarterbacks

Matchup

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HOU logo
HOUTexans
12-5
TBD
Acrisure Stadium
70°F
0
PITSteelers
10-7
PIT logo
TBD
Acrisure Stadium
70°F
0

Model

Projected Winner
HOU logo
HOUTexansFavored
Opening
-3.5
Current
-3.0
Model
-3.0

Win Probability

Market59.7%
Model59.7%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
-27
Home nfelo
1,504
Away nfelo
1,575
Home Field
+52.0
Base HFA
+44.5
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
+15.5
Time Adj
-8.0
Net QB Adjustment
-5.8
Home QB Adjustment
+1.2
Away QB Adjustment
+7.0
Market Regression
+10.1
Final Difference
-68.3
Model Spread
+3.0

Quarterbacks

C. Stroud headshot

C. Stroud

Proj. Value
-0.3
Team Elo Adj
+7.0
Value
Ptile
10/05
9.6
97
10/20
-5.0
17
10/26
7.5
93
11/02
-4.3
22
11/30
-2.9
30
12/07
-4.0
24
12/14
5.5
86
12/21
-0.4
47
12/27
-0.2
50
01/04
1.3
61
A. Rodgers headshot

A. Rodgers

Proj. Value
+0.6
Team Elo Adj
+1.2
Value
Ptile
10/26
-0.0
51
11/02
-1.7
39
11/09
-8.1
5
11/16
-2.7
32
11/30
-4.2
23
12/07
5.7
88
12/15
3.5
76
12/21
1.6
62
12/28
-2.7
32
01/04
3.5
76

Team Matchup Ranks

Texans Offense vs Steelers Defense
Texans logo
Steelers logo

Total

Points / Game
13
17
Yards / Game
18
26
Passing Yards / Game
28
30
Rushing Yards / Game
22
13

EPA

EPA / Play
22
18
EPA / Pass
15
17
EPA / Rush
30
22

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
24
22
Interceptions / Game
9
8
Fumbles / Game
2
2
Turnover EPA / Game
32
30

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
23
25
4th Down Efficiency
16
31
RZ Efficiency
30
7
Steelers Offense vs Texans Defense
Steelers logo
Texans logo

Total

Points / Game
15
2
Yards / Game
25
1
Passing Yards / Game
29
18
Rushing Yards / Game
26
4

EPA

EPA / Play
14
2
EPA / Pass
16
1
EPA / Rush
9
11

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
27
22
Interceptions / Game
9
3
Fumbles / Game
6
8
Turnover EPA / Game
29
29

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
15
6
4th Down Efficiency
20
7
RZ Efficiency
11
16

Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)

HOU logo

Texans

9-1
SU
6-4
ATS
4-6
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
11/02
-3
L
L
U
11/09
7
W
W
O
11/16
3
W
L
U
11/20
4
W
W
U
11/30
4
W
W
U
12/07
10
W
W
U
12/14
20
W
W
O
12/21
2
W
L
O
12/27
4
W
W
U
01/04
8
W
L
O
PIT logo

Steelers

6-4
SU
6-3-1
ATS
4-5-1
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
11/02
7
W
W
U
11/09
-15
L
L
U
11/16
22
W
W
U
11/23
-3
L
P
O
11/30
-19
L
L
U
12/07
5
W
W
O
12/15
13
W
W
P
12/21
5
W
W
O
12/28
-7
L
L
U
01/04
2
W
W
O