nfelo logo

nfelo

Live
Platform
Kalshi
$10

$10 Bonus

Receive $10 when you sign up with Kalshi prediction market

Affiliate Disclosure: Some of the links and placements on this site may be affiliate links or paid partnerships. This means nfelo may receive compensation when you click these links or sign up for a partner’s service.

Offer Disclosure: Offers are for informational purposes only. Age, location, and other restrictions may apply. nfelo does not validate offer availability. See provider for full terms.

  1. nfelo...
  2. predictions...
  3. texans @ steelers week 19, 2025

Game Summary

Spread
Total

Model

Quarterbacks

Matchup

nfelo logo

nfelo

Advanced NFL analytics platform powered by the nflfastR dataset and custom open source models.

Analysis
Research and insights that power the nfelo model
About
How nfelo works

Predictions

  • Games
    Game previews and model projections
  • Confidence Pool
    Weekly confidence pool picks
  • Betting Card
    +EV NFL Sides
  • Model Performance
    Historic nfelo model performance

Teams

  • Power Ratings
    Team Power Ratings
  • EPA Tiers
    Offensive and Defensive EPA Tiers
  • Tendencies
    Pass rates, formations, and play styles
  • Strength of Schedule
    Projected and realized opponent quality
  • Win Totals
    Win total projections and results

QBs

  • QB Rankings
    QB Elo, EPA, Ratings, and Stats
  • Era Adjusted Elo
    QB Elo model adjusted for era

Tools & More

  • Receiving Leaders
    Advanced stats for receivers
  • Head Coaches
    Stats and ATS Records for Coaches
  • HFA Tracker
    Home Field Advantage for every team
  • NFL Odds Calculator
    Calculate and convert betting odds
  • Cover Probability
    Calculate EV for spreads
  • Sportsbook Hold
    Calculate the hold for odds
  • Hedge Calculator
    Calculate strategy optimal hedge size
  • Parlay Payout Calculator
    Calculate parlay payouts
  • QB Passer Rating Calculator
    Calculate passer rating from stats

© 2026 nfelo. All rights reserved.

Entertainment purposes only. The information contained on nfeloapp.com is not intended to be, and shall not be construed as, gambling advice, financial advice, or any other professional advice or service. nfeloapp.com and its owners assume no responsibility for errors or omissions. Please gamble responsibly.

HOU logo
HOUTexans
12-5
30
TBD
Acrisure Stadium
32°F
9 mph
6
PITSteelers
10-7
PIT logo
TBD
Acrisure Stadium
32°F
9 mph

Game Summary

Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Texans
0
7
0
11
18
Steelers
3
3
0
0
6

Spread

HOU logo
-3

Total

UNDER
38.5

Game Statistics

General
Texans logo
Steelers logo
Total Yards
408
175
Total Plays
66
56
Yards / Play
6.2
3.1
EPA / Play
+0.04
-0.48
Passing Yards
244
112
Comp/Att
21/32(66%)
18/34(53%)
Yards / Pass
7.6
3.3
EPA / Pass
+0.01
-0.75
Rushing Yards
164
63
Rush Attempts
31
18
Yards / Rush
5.3
3.5
EPA / Rush
+0.17
-0.28
Downs & Conversions
Texans logo
Steelers logo
1st Downs
21
13
Passing 1st downs
12
7
Rushing 1st downs
8
5
Penalty 1st downs
1
1
3rd Down %
67%
14%
3rd Down Conversions
10
2
3rd Down Attempts
15
14
Red Zone %
67%
0%
Red Zone Conversions
2
--
Red Zone Attempts
3
2
Negative Plays
Texans logo
Steelers logo
Turnovers
3
2
Interceptions
1
1
Fumbles
2
1
Turnover EPA
-14.56
-14.21
Sacks
3
4
Sack Yards
-6
-36
Sack EPA
-11.22
-11.98
Penalties
6
3
Penalty Yards
44
24
Penalty EPA
-3.78
-4.10

Game Preview

nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game

Model

Projected Winner
HOU logo
HOUTexansFavored
Opening
-3.5
Current
-3.0
Model
-3.0

Win Probability

Market59.7%
Model59.7%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
-29
Home nfelo
1,503
Away nfelo
1,575
Home Field
+52.0
Base HFA
+44.4
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
+15.5
Time Adj
-8.0
Net QB Adjustment
-5.8
Home QB Adjustment
+1.2
Away QB Adjustment
+7.0
Market Regression
+10.5
Final Difference
-68.3
Model Spread
+3.0

Quarterbacks

C. Stroud headshot

C. Stroud

Proj. Value
-1.6
Team Elo Adj
+7.0
Value
Ptile
10/05
9.6
97
10/20
-5.0
17
10/26
7.5
93
11/02
-4.3
22
11/30
-2.9
30
12/07
-4.0
24
12/14
5.5
86
12/21
-0.3
47
12/27
-0.2
50
01/04
1.3
61
A. Rodgers headshot

A. Rodgers

Proj. Value
-0.2
Team Elo Adj
+1.2
Value
Ptile
10/26
-0.0
51
11/02
-1.7
39
11/09
-8.1
5
11/16
-2.7
32
11/30
-4.2
23
12/07
5.7
88
12/15
3.5
76
12/21
1.6
63
12/28
-2.7
32
01/04
3.5
76

Team Matchup Ranks

Texans Offense vs Steelers Defense
Texans logo
Steelers logo

Total

Points / Game
13
17
Yards / Game
18
27
Passing Yards / Game
26
31
Rushing Yards / Game
22
15

EPA

EPA / Play
24
17
EPA / Pass
16
16
EPA / Rush
30
23

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
29
23
Interceptions / Game
21
8
Fumbles / Game
7
2
Turnover EPA / Game
22
31

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
18
26
4th Down Efficiency
15
31
RZ Efficiency
29
6
Steelers Offense vs Texans Defense
Steelers logo
Texans logo

Total

Points / Game
17
3
Yards / Game
26
1
Passing Yards / Game
29
16
Rushing Yards / Game
26
2

EPA

EPA / Play
18
1
EPA / Pass
21
1
EPA / Rush
11
3

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
26
22
Interceptions / Game
8
4
Fumbles / Game
8
4
Turnover EPA / Game
27
29

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
20
2
4th Down Efficiency
18
9
RZ Efficiency
18
13

Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)

HOU logo

Texans

9-1
SU
6-4
ATS
4-6
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
11/02
-3
L
L
U
11/09
7
W
W
O
11/16
3
W
L
U
11/20
4
W
W
U
11/30
4
W
W
U
12/07
10
W
W
U
12/14
20
W
W
O
12/21
2
W
L
O
12/27
4
W
W
U
01/04
8
W
L
O
PIT logo

Steelers

6-4
SU
6-3-1
ATS
4-5-1
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
11/02
7
W
W
U
11/09
-15
L
L
U
11/16
22
W
W
U
11/23
-3
L
P
O
11/30
-19
L
L
U
12/07
5
W
W
O
12/15
13
W
W
P
12/21
5
W
W
O
12/28
-7
L
L
U
01/04
2
W
W
O