HOUTexans
0-1
34
TBD
Nissan Stadium
77°F
13 mph
31
TENTitans
0-1
TBD
Nissan Stadium
77°F
13 mph
Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Texans
7
17
7
3
34
Titans
14
10
7
0
31
Spread
+7
Total
OVER
40.5
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
420
449
Total Plays
68
60
Yards / Play
6.2
7.5
EPA / Play
+0.22
+0.13
Passing Yards
--
209
Comp/Att
25/39(64%)
21/33(64%)
Yards / Pass
--
6.3
EPA / Pass
+0.67
-0.03
Rushing Yards
63
240
Rush Attempts
29
26
Yards / Rush
2.2
9.2
EPA / Rush
-0.49
+0.26
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
19
19
Passing 1st downs
15
10
Rushing 1st downs
3
7
Penalty 1st downs
1
2
3rd Down %
31%
45%
3rd Down Conversions
5
5
3rd Down Attempts
16
11
Red Zone %
67%
100%
Red Zone Conversions
2
1
Red Zone Attempts
3
1
Negative Plays
Turnovers
0
2
Interceptions
0
1
Fumbles
0
1
Turnover EPA
--
-7.43
Sacks
--
1
Sack Yards
--
-7
Sack EPA
--
-1.21
Penalties
6
8
Penalty Yards
40
64
Penalty EPA
-5.34
-6.57
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
TENTitansFavored
Opening
-8.0
Current
-7.0
Model
-7.0
Win Probability
Market72.8%
Model72.8%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+138
Home nfelo
1,597
Away nfelo
1,493
Home Field
+34.3
Base HFA
+62.5
Divisional Adj
-28.2
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
--
Time Adj
--
Net QB Adjustment
-0.5
Home QB Adjustment
+1.9
Away QB Adjustment
+2.4
Market Regression
-26.4
Final Difference
171.0
Model Spread
-7.0
Quarterbacks
M. Schaub
Proj. Value
-1.0
Team Elo Adj
+2.4
K. Collins
Proj. Value
-2.5
Team Elo Adj
+1.9
Team Matchup Ranks
Texans Offense vs Titans Defense
Total
Points / Game
10
28
Yards / Game
5
27
Passing Yards / Game
10
25
Rushing Yards / Game
30
11
EPA
EPA / Play
9
27
EPA / Pass
6
26
EPA / Rush
29
22
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
5
32
Interceptions / Game
18
7
Fumbles / Game
25
28
Turnover EPA / Game
10
16
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
15
26
4th Down Efficiency
4
31
RZ Efficiency
12
27
Titans Offense vs Texans Defense
Total
Points / Game
15
16
Yards / Game
13
14
Passing Yards / Game
31
16
Rushing Yards / Game
2
10
EPA
EPA / Play
13
16
EPA / Pass
17
11
EPA / Rush
2
13
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
13
27
Interceptions / Game
14
21
Fumbles / Game
29
20
Turnover EPA / Game
22
19
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
12
20
4th Down Efficiency
12
7
RZ Efficiency
9
30
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Texans
5-5
SU
6-4
ATS
0-1-9
O/U
Titans
5-5
SU
6-4
ATS
0-1-9
O/U