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  1. nfelo...
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  3. texans @ titans week 2, 2009

Game Summary

Spread
Total

Model

Quarterbacks

Matchup

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HOU logo
HOUTexans
0-1
34
TBD
Nissan Stadium
77°F
13 mph
31
TENTitans
0-1
TEN logo
TBD
Nissan Stadium
77°F
13 mph

Game Summary

Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Texans
7
17
7
3
34
Titans
14
10
7
0
31

Spread

HOU logo
+7

Total

OVER
40.5

Game Statistics

General
Texans logo
Titans logo
Total Yards
420
449
Total Plays
68
60
Yards / Play
6.2
7.5
EPA / Play
+0.22
+0.13
Passing Yards
--
209
Comp/Att
25/39(64%)
21/33(64%)
Yards / Pass
--
6.3
EPA / Pass
+0.67
-0.03
Rushing Yards
63
240
Rush Attempts
29
26
Yards / Rush
2.2
9.2
EPA / Rush
-0.49
+0.26
Downs & Conversions
Texans logo
Titans logo
1st Downs
19
19
Passing 1st downs
15
10
Rushing 1st downs
3
7
Penalty 1st downs
1
2
3rd Down %
31%
45%
3rd Down Conversions
5
5
3rd Down Attempts
16
11
Red Zone %
67%
100%
Red Zone Conversions
2
1
Red Zone Attempts
3
1
Negative Plays
Texans logo
Titans logo
Turnovers
0
2
Interceptions
0
1
Fumbles
0
1
Turnover EPA
--
-7.43
Sacks
--
1
Sack Yards
--
-7
Sack EPA
--
-1.21
Penalties
6
8
Penalty Yards
40
64
Penalty EPA
-5.34
-6.57

Game Preview

nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game

Model

Projected Winner
TEN logo
TENTitansFavored
Opening
-8.0
Current
-7.0
Model
-7.0

Win Probability

Market72.8%
Model72.8%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+138
Home nfelo
1,597
Away nfelo
1,493
Home Field
+34.3
Base HFA
+62.5
Divisional Adj
-28.2
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
--
Time Adj
--
Net QB Adjustment
-0.5
Home QB Adjustment
+1.9
Away QB Adjustment
+2.4
Market Regression
-26.4
Final Difference
171.0
Model Spread
-7.0

Quarterbacks

M. Schaub headshot

M. Schaub

Proj. Value
-1.0
Team Elo Adj
+2.4
Value
Ptile
09/28
11.9
99
10/12
3.2
73
10/19
4.4
80
10/26
8.4
95
11/02
-5.4
13
12/07
8.2
95
12/14
2.2
67
12/21
-3.5
25
12/28
8.8
95
09/13
-5.1
20
K. Collins headshot

K. Collins

Proj. Value
-2.5
Team Elo Adj
+1.9
Value
Ptile
11/09
7.3
91
11/16
1.8
64
11/23
1.0
59
11/27
-2.5
31
12/07
-1.4
41
12/14
-4.8
17
12/21
4.9
83
12/28
-5.0
15
01/10
1.5
62
09/10
1.9
62

Team Matchup Ranks

Texans Offense vs Titans Defense
Texans logo
Titans logo

Total

Points / Game
10
28
Yards / Game
5
27
Passing Yards / Game
10
25
Rushing Yards / Game
30
11

EPA

EPA / Play
9
27
EPA / Pass
6
26
EPA / Rush
29
22

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
5
32
Interceptions / Game
18
7
Fumbles / Game
25
28
Turnover EPA / Game
10
16

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
15
26
4th Down Efficiency
4
31
RZ Efficiency
12
27
Titans Offense vs Texans Defense
Titans logo
Texans logo

Total

Points / Game
15
16
Yards / Game
13
14
Passing Yards / Game
31
16
Rushing Yards / Game
2
10

EPA

EPA / Play
13
16
EPA / Pass
17
11
EPA / Rush
2
13

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
13
27
Interceptions / Game
14
21
Fumbles / Game
29
20
Turnover EPA / Game
22
19

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
12
20
4th Down Efficiency
12
7
RZ Efficiency
9
30

Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)

HOU logo

Texans

5-5
SU
6-4
ATS
0-1-9
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
11/02
-7
L
L
P
11/09
-28
L
L
P
11/16
-6
L
W
P
11/23
10
W
W
P
12/01
13
W
W
P
12/07
3
W
W
P
12/14
1
W
W
P
12/21
-11
L
L
P
12/28
7
W
W
P
09/13
-17
L
L
U
TEN logo

Titans

5-5
SU
6-4
ATS
0-1-9
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
11/09
7
W
W
P
11/16
10
W
W
P
11/23
-21
L
L
P
11/27
37
W
W
P
12/07
19
W
W
P
12/14
-1
L
L
P
12/21
17
W
W
P
12/28
-23
L
L
P
01/10
-3
L
L
P
09/10
-3
L
W
U