HOUTexans
0-1
17
TBD
Nissan Stadium
81°F
12 mph
20
TENTitans
0-1
TBD
Nissan Stadium
81°F
12 mph
Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Texans
0
7
3
7
17
Titans
14
0
0
6
20
Spread
+3.5
Total
UNDER
41
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
437
283
Total Plays
62
57
Yards / Play
7.0
5.0
EPA / Play
+0.03
+0.07
Passing Yards
289
183
Comp/Att
22/32(69%)
15/22(68%)
Yards / Pass
9.0
8.3
EPA / Pass
+0.20
+0.34
Rushing Yards
148
100
Rush Attempts
26
34
Yards / Rush
5.7
2.9
EPA / Rush
+0.00
-0.17
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
21
15
Passing 1st downs
13
7
Rushing 1st downs
6
7
Penalty 1st downs
2
1
3rd Down %
45%
33%
3rd Down Conversions
5
5
3rd Down Attempts
11
15
Red Zone %
0%
50%
Red Zone Conversions
--
1
Red Zone Attempts
1
2
Negative Plays
Turnovers
1
0
Interceptions
1
0
Fumbles
0
0
Turnover EPA
-3.64
--
Sacks
4
1
Sack Yards
-21
-8
Sack EPA
-5.70
-1.50
Penalties
11
8
Penalty Yards
88
70
Penalty EPA
-9.34
-6.12
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
HOUTexansFavored
Opening
-1.5
Current
-3.5
Model
-2.5
Win Probability
Market62.9%
Model56.2%
Spread Pick
Titans+3.5
Expected Value
+11.0%
Cover Probability
58.1%
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+0
Home nfelo
1,500
Away nfelo
1,449
Home Field
+50.8
Base HFA
+56.6
Divisional Adj
-25.6
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
+19.8
Time Adj
--
Net QB Adjustment
-100.8
Home QB Adjustment
-82.8
Away QB Adjustment
+18.0
Market Regression
-18.1
Final Difference
-43.2
Model Spread
+2.5
Quarterbacks
D. Watson
Proj. Value
-2.3
Team Elo Adj
+18.0
B. Gabbert
Proj. Value
-3.9
Team Elo Adj
-82.8
Team Matchup Ranks
Texans Offense vs Titans Defense
Total
Points / Game
12
3
Yards / Game
15
7
Passing Yards / Game
10
7
Rushing Yards / Game
7
19
EPA
EPA / Play
15
13
EPA / Pass
13
14
EPA / Rush
21
15
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
19
10
Interceptions / Game
6
23
Fumbles / Game
17
19
Turnover EPA / Game
32
3
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
24
10
4th Down Efficiency
14
15
RZ Efficiency
28
2
Titans Offense vs Texans Defense
Total
Points / Game
27
5
Yards / Game
25
14
Passing Yards / Game
27
22
Rushing Yards / Game
6
4
EPA
EPA / Play
20
5
EPA / Pass
24
13
EPA / Rush
16
2
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
15
1
Interceptions / Game
14
10
Fumbles / Game
3
4
Turnover EPA / Game
18
25
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
14
25
4th Down Efficiency
15
21
RZ Efficiency
23
31
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Texans
1-9
SU
2-8
ATS
2-8
O/U
Titans
4-6
SU
6-4
ATS
5-5
O/U