HOUTexans
1-4
36
TBD
Nissan Stadium
61°F
10 mph
42
TENTitans
4-0
TBD
Nissan Stadium
61°F
10 mph
Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
OT
Total
Texans
0
10
13
13
0
36
Titans
14
7
0
15
6
42
Spread
-4
Total
OVER
52
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
412
609
Total Plays
68
71
Yards / Play
6.1
8.6
EPA / Play
+0.28
+0.31
Passing Yards
320
346
Comp/Att
28/39(72%)
30/42(71%)
Yards / Pass
8.2
8.2
EPA / Pass
+0.52
+0.41
Rushing Yards
92
263
Rush Attempts
27
27
Yards / Rush
3.4
9.7
EPA / Rush
-0.05
+0.44
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
25
31
Passing 1st downs
17
20
Rushing 1st downs
6
9
Penalty 1st downs
2
2
3rd Down %
50%
60%
3rd Down Conversions
7
6
3rd Down Attempts
14
10
Red Zone %
100%
67%
Red Zone Conversions
4
4
Red Zone Attempts
4
6
Negative Plays
Turnovers
0
2
Interceptions
0
1
Fumbles
0
1
Turnover EPA
--
-8.47
Sacks
2
2
Sack Yards
-15
-22
Sack EPA
-3.48
-7.51
Penalties
4
7
Penalty Yards
46
73
Penalty EPA
-4.75
-7.14
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
TENTitansFavored
Opening
-3.5
Current
-4.0
Model
-4.0
Win Probability
Market64.7%
Model64.7%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+82
Home nfelo
1,551
Away nfelo
1,493
Home Field
+3.4
Base HFA
+6.3
Divisional Adj
-2.8
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
--
Time Adj
--
Net QB Adjustment
+20.3
Home QB Adjustment
+25.6
Away QB Adjustment
+5.3
Market Regression
+16.5
Final Difference
105.3
Model Spread
-4.0
Quarterbacks
D. Watson
Proj. Value
-2.3
Team Elo Adj
+5.3
R. Tannehill
Proj. Value
-2.2
Team Elo Adj
+25.6
Team Matchup Ranks
Texans Offense vs Titans Defense
Total
Points / Game
18
24
Yards / Game
11
28
Passing Yards / Game
3
4
Rushing Yards / Game
31
24
EPA
EPA / Play
10
28
EPA / Pass
6
27
EPA / Rush
23
21
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
16
26
Interceptions / Game
2
7
Fumbles / Game
20
21
Turnover EPA / Game
27
22
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
12
32
4th Down Efficiency
18
19
RZ Efficiency
25
30
Titans Offense vs Texans Defense
Total
Points / Game
4
27
Yards / Game
4
30
Passing Yards / Game
15
20
Rushing Yards / Game
2
32
EPA
EPA / Play
3
31
EPA / Pass
4
31
EPA / Rush
2
30
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
4
2
Interceptions / Game
3
32
Fumbles / Game
2
18
Turnover EPA / Game
31
1
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
7
29
4th Down Efficiency
6
14
RZ Efficiency
2
24
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Texans
4-6
SU
3-6-1
ATS
5-5
O/U
Titans
7-3
SU
4-6
ATS
6-4
O/U