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  1. nfelo...
  2. predictions...
  3. texans @ titans week 6, 2020

Game Summary

Spread
Total

Model

Quarterbacks

Matchup

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HOU logo
HOUTexans
1-4
36
TBD
Nissan Stadium
61°F
10 mph
42
TENTitans
4-0
TEN logo
TBD
Nissan Stadium
61°F
10 mph

Game Summary

Scoring
1
2
3
4
OT
Total
Texans
0
10
13
13
0
36
Titans
14
7
0
15
6
42

Spread

TEN logo
-4

Total

OVER
52

Game Statistics

General
Texans logo
Titans logo
Total Yards
412
609
Total Plays
68
71
Yards / Play
6.1
8.6
EPA / Play
+0.28
+0.31
Passing Yards
320
346
Comp/Att
28/39(72%)
30/42(71%)
Yards / Pass
8.2
8.2
EPA / Pass
+0.52
+0.41
Rushing Yards
92
263
Rush Attempts
27
27
Yards / Rush
3.4
9.7
EPA / Rush
-0.05
+0.44
Downs & Conversions
Texans logo
Titans logo
1st Downs
25
31
Passing 1st downs
17
20
Rushing 1st downs
6
9
Penalty 1st downs
2
2
3rd Down %
50%
60%
3rd Down Conversions
7
6
3rd Down Attempts
14
10
Red Zone %
100%
67%
Red Zone Conversions
4
4
Red Zone Attempts
4
6
Negative Plays
Texans logo
Titans logo
Turnovers
0
2
Interceptions
0
1
Fumbles
0
1
Turnover EPA
--
-8.47
Sacks
2
2
Sack Yards
-15
-22
Sack EPA
-3.48
-7.51
Penalties
4
7
Penalty Yards
46
73
Penalty EPA
-4.75
-7.14

Game Preview

nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game

Model

Projected Winner
TEN logo
TENTitansFavored
Opening
-3.5
Current
-4.0
Model
-4.0

Win Probability

Market64.7%
Model64.7%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+81
Home nfelo
1,553
Away nfelo
1,495
Home Field
+3.4
Base HFA
+6.3
Divisional Adj
-2.8
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
--
Time Adj
--
Net QB Adjustment
+20.3
Home QB Adjustment
+25.6
Away QB Adjustment
+5.3
Market Regression
+16.5
Final Difference
105.3
Model Spread
-4.0

Quarterbacks

D. Watson headshot

D. Watson

Proj. Value
-2.5
Team Elo Adj
+5.3
Value
Ptile
12/08
2.2
67
12/15
0.7
57
12/21
-7.9
9
01/04
2.9
72
01/12
6.7
89
09/10
-0.0
46
09/20
-0.1
45
09/27
-0.3
44
10/04
1.8
57
10/11
5.4
80
R. Tannehill headshot

R. Tannehill

Proj. Value
-2.3
Team Elo Adj
+25.6
Value
Ptile
12/15
0.5
55
12/22
0.6
57
12/29
1.3
63
01/04
-4.2
24
01/11
1.1
61
01/19
1.2
62
09/14
4.5
76
09/20
6.7
87
09/27
0.1
46
10/13
10.4
96

Team Matchup Ranks

Texans Offense vs Titans Defense
Texans logo
Titans logo

Total

Points / Game
18
24
Yards / Game
11
28
Passing Yards / Game
3
4
Rushing Yards / Game
31
24

EPA

EPA / Play
10
28
EPA / Pass
6
27
EPA / Rush
23
21

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
16
26
Interceptions / Game
2
7
Fumbles / Game
20
21
Turnover EPA / Game
27
22

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
12
32
4th Down Efficiency
18
19
RZ Efficiency
25
30
Titans Offense vs Texans Defense
Titans logo
Texans logo

Total

Points / Game
4
27
Yards / Game
4
30
Passing Yards / Game
15
20
Rushing Yards / Game
2
32

EPA

EPA / Play
3
31
EPA / Pass
4
31
EPA / Rush
2
30

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
4
2
Interceptions / Game
3
32
Fumbles / Game
2
18
Turnover EPA / Game
31
1

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
7
29
4th Down Efficiency
6
14
RZ Efficiency
2
24

Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)

HOU logo

Texans

4-6
SU
3-6-1
ATS
5-5
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
12/15
3
W
W
U
12/21
3
W
P
U
12/29
-21
L
L
O
01/04
3
W
W
U
01/12
-20
L
L
O
09/10
-14
L
L
O
09/20
-17
L
L
U
09/27
-7
L
L
O
10/04
-8
L
L
O
10/11
16
W
W
U
TEN logo

Titans

7-3
SU
4-6
ATS
6-4
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
12/15
-3
L
L
U
12/22
-10
L
L
O
12/29
21
W
W
O
01/04
7
W
W
U
01/11
16
W
W
U
01/19
-11
L
L
O
09/14
2
W
L
U
09/20
3
W
L
O
09/27
1
W
L
O
10/13
26
W
W
O