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  1. nfelo...
  2. predictions...
  3. texans @ titans week 7, 2011

Game Summary

Spread
Total

Model

Quarterbacks

Matchup

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HOU logo
HOUTexans
3-3
41
TBD
Nissan Stadium
72°F
0
7
TENTitans
3-2
TEN logo
TBD
Nissan Stadium
72°F
0

Game Summary

Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Texans
3
17
7
8
35
Titans
0
0
7
0
7

Spread

HOU logo
+2.5

Total

OVER
44

Game Statistics

General
Texans logo
Titans logo
Total Yards
518
148
Total Plays
70
48
Yards / Play
7.4
3.1
EPA / Play
+0.34
-0.32
Passing Yards
--
95
Comp/Att
18/23(78%)
15/31(48%)
Yards / Pass
--
3.1
EPA / Pass
+1.04
-0.53
Rushing Yards
222
53
Rush Attempts
47
15
Yards / Rush
4.7
3.5
EPA / Rush
+0.01
-0.24
Downs & Conversions
Texans logo
Titans logo
1st Downs
29
11
Passing 1st downs
13
6
Rushing 1st downs
14
2
Penalty 1st downs
2
3
3rd Down %
54%
20%
3rd Down Conversions
7
2
3rd Down Attempts
13
10
Red Zone %
60%
100%
Red Zone Conversions
3
1
Red Zone Attempts
5
1
Negative Plays
Texans logo
Titans logo
Turnovers
0
2
Interceptions
0
2
Fumbles
0
0
Turnover EPA
--
-10.27
Sacks
--
2
Sack Yards
--
-21
Sack EPA
--
-3.78
Penalties
6
8
Penalty Yards
68
76
Penalty EPA
-9.94
-7.82

Game Preview

nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game

Model

Projected Winner
TEN logo
TENTitansFavored
Opening
-3.0
Current
-2.5
Model
-1.5

Win Probability

Market56.1%
Model53.6%
Spread Pick
HOU logo
Texans+2.5
Projected +EV
Expected Value
+1.5%
Cover Probability
53.2%
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
-4
Home nfelo
1,490
Away nfelo
1,566
Home Field
+52.2
Base HFA
+62.5
Divisional Adj
-28.2
Home Bye Adj
+17.9
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
--
Time Adj
--
Net QB Adjustment
+20.4
Home QB Adjustment
+16.7
Away QB Adjustment
-3.7
Market Regression
-7.5
Final Difference
24.9
Model Spread
-1.5

Quarterbacks

M. Schaub headshot

M. Schaub

Proj. Value
-1.0
Team Elo Adj
-3.7
Value
Ptile
12/13
2.1
63
12/19
1.4
57
12/26
3.6
73
01/02
4.5
79
09/11
-2.5
33
09/18
1.9
66
09/25
4.4
78
10/02
1.2
61
10/09
-1.5
40
10/16
-1.3
42
M. Hasselbeck headshot

M. Hasselbeck

Proj. Value
-2.7
Team Elo Adj
+16.7
Value
Ptile
12/12
-2.1
36
12/19
-8.5
6
12/26
-1.9
37
01/08
5.5
85
01/16
2.8
68
09/11
1.1
61
09/18
7.3
91
09/25
5.7
85
10/02
2.9
72
10/09
-1.1
43

Team Matchup Ranks

Texans Offense vs Titans Defense
Texans logo
Titans logo

Total

Points / Game
11
8
Yards / Game
13
18
Passing Yards / Game
25
13
Rushing Yards / Game
2
22

EPA

EPA / Play
14
15
EPA / Pass
10
17
EPA / Rush
11
13

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
29
31
Interceptions / Game
4
24
Fumbles / Game
20
4
Turnover EPA / Game
20
14

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
9
23
4th Down Efficiency
30
12
RZ Efficiency
22
10
Titans Offense vs Texans Defense
Titans logo
Texans logo

Total

Points / Game
22
4
Yards / Game
17
2
Passing Yards / Game
11
11
Rushing Yards / Game
32
2

EPA

EPA / Play
16
2
EPA / Pass
16
1
EPA / Rush
28
4

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
2
24
Interceptions / Game
13
12
Fumbles / Game
12
22
Turnover EPA / Game
19
16

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
19
13
4th Down Efficiency
1
10
RZ Efficiency
5
11

Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)

HOU logo

Texans

4-6
SU
4-6
ATS
4-6
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
12/13
-6
L
L
O
12/19
-14
L
L
O
12/26
-1
L
L
U
01/02
17
W
W
O
09/11
27
W
W
U
09/18
10
W
W
U
09/25
-7
L
L
O
10/02
7
W
W
U
10/09
-5
L
L
U
10/16
-15
L
L
U
TEN logo

Titans

4-6
SU
5-5
ATS
5-5
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
12/05
-11
L
L
U
12/09
-2
L
W
O
12/19
14
W
W
O
12/26
-20
L
L
O
01/02
-3
L
W
U
09/11
-2
L
L
U
09/18
13
W
W
U
09/25
3
W
L
U
10/02
18
W
W
O
10/09
-21
L
L
O