HOUTexans
3-3
41
TBD
Nissan Stadium
72°F
07
TENTitans
3-2
TBD
Nissan Stadium
72°F
0Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Texans
3
17
7
8
35
Titans
0
0
7
0
7
Spread
+2.5
Total
OVER
44
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
518
148
Total Plays
70
48
Yards / Play
7.4
3.1
EPA / Play
+0.34
-0.32
Passing Yards
--
95
Comp/Att
18/23(78%)
15/31(48%)
Yards / Pass
--
3.1
EPA / Pass
+1.04
-0.53
Rushing Yards
222
53
Rush Attempts
47
15
Yards / Rush
4.7
3.5
EPA / Rush
+0.01
-0.24
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
29
11
Passing 1st downs
13
6
Rushing 1st downs
14
2
Penalty 1st downs
2
3
3rd Down %
54%
20%
3rd Down Conversions
7
2
3rd Down Attempts
13
10
Red Zone %
60%
100%
Red Zone Conversions
3
1
Red Zone Attempts
5
1
Negative Plays
Turnovers
0
2
Interceptions
0
2
Fumbles
0
0
Turnover EPA
--
-10.27
Sacks
--
2
Sack Yards
--
-21
Sack EPA
--
-3.78
Penalties
6
8
Penalty Yards
68
76
Penalty EPA
-9.94
-7.82
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
TENTitansFavored
Opening
-3.0
Current
-2.5
Model
-1.5
Win Probability
Market56.1%
Model52.7%
Spread Pick
Texans+2.5
Expected Value
+1.5%
Cover Probability
53.2%
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
-7
Home nfelo
1,489
Away nfelo
1,569
Home Field
+52.2
Base HFA
+62.5
Divisional Adj
-28.2
Home Bye Adj
+17.9
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
--
Time Adj
--
Net QB Adjustment
+20.4
Home QB Adjustment
+16.7
Away QB Adjustment
-3.7
Market Regression
-8.3
Final Difference
19.0
Model Spread
-1.5
Quarterbacks
M. Schaub
Proj. Value
-1.0
Team Elo Adj
-3.7
M. Hasselbeck
Proj. Value
-2.7
Team Elo Adj
+16.7
Team Matchup Ranks
Texans Offense vs Titans Defense
Total
Points / Game
11
8
Yards / Game
13
18
Passing Yards / Game
25
13
Rushing Yards / Game
2
22
EPA
EPA / Play
14
15
EPA / Pass
10
17
EPA / Rush
11
13
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
29
31
Interceptions / Game
4
24
Fumbles / Game
20
4
Turnover EPA / Game
20
14
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
9
23
4th Down Efficiency
30
12
RZ Efficiency
22
10
Titans Offense vs Texans Defense
Total
Points / Game
22
4
Yards / Game
17
2
Passing Yards / Game
11
11
Rushing Yards / Game
32
2
EPA
EPA / Play
16
2
EPA / Pass
16
1
EPA / Rush
28
4
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
2
24
Interceptions / Game
13
12
Fumbles / Game
12
22
Turnover EPA / Game
19
16
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
19
13
4th Down Efficiency
1
10
RZ Efficiency
5
11
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Texans
4-6
SU
4-6
ATS
4-6
O/U
Titans
4-6
SU
5-5
ATS
5-5
O/U