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  1. nfelo...
  2. predictions...
  3. texans @ titans week 13, 2017

Game Summary

Spread
Total

Model

Quarterbacks

Matchup

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HOU logo
HOUTexans
4-7
13
TBD
Nissan Stadium
60°F
4 mph
24
TENTitans
7-4
TEN logo
TBD
Nissan Stadium
60°F
4 mph

Game Summary

Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Texans
3
7
0
3
13
Titans
0
10
7
7
24

Spread

TEN logo
-7

Total

UNDER
42.5

Game Statistics

General
Texans logo
Titans logo
Total Yards
384
344
Total Plays
75
50
Yards / Play
5.1
6.9
EPA / Play
+0.04
+0.24
Passing Yards
331
146
Comp/Att
31/49(63%)
15/23(65%)
Yards / Pass
6.8
6.3
EPA / Pass
+0.21
+0.06
Rushing Yards
53
198
Rush Attempts
22
25
Yards / Rush
2.4
7.9
EPA / Rush
-0.23
+0.40
Downs & Conversions
Texans logo
Titans logo
1st Downs
24
19
Passing 1st downs
17
8
Rushing 1st downs
3
9
Penalty 1st downs
4
2
3rd Down %
50%
45%
3rd Down Conversions
8
5
3rd Down Attempts
16
11
Red Zone %
33%
100%
Red Zone Conversions
1
1
Red Zone Attempts
3
1
Negative Plays
Texans logo
Titans logo
Turnovers
2
0
Interceptions
1
0
Fumbles
1
0
Turnover EPA
-0.07
--
Sacks
4
2
Sack Yards
-34
-4
Sack EPA
-3.55
-2.92
Penalties
11
7
Penalty Yards
85
63
Penalty EPA
-8.82
+0.21

Game Preview

nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game

Model

Projected Winner
TEN logo
TENTitansFavored
Opening
-7.0
Current
-7.0
Model
-7.0

Win Probability

Market72.8%
Model72.8%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+160
Home nfelo
1,486
Away nfelo
1,437
Home Field
+50.6
Base HFA
+56.4
Divisional Adj
-25.4
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
+19.7
Time Adj
--
Net QB Adjustment
+60.2
Home QB Adjustment
-0.7
Away QB Adjustment
-60.9
Market Regression
--
Final Difference
171.0
Model Spread
-7.0

Quarterbacks

T. Savage headshot

T. Savage

Proj. Value
-4.6
Team Elo Adj
-60.9
Value
Ptile
12/24
-4.5
16
01/01
-7.3
7
09/10
-10.9
2
11/05
-5.2
18
11/12
-7.2
12
11/19
1.7
65
11/27
-3.8
25
M. Mariota headshot

M. Mariota

Proj. Value
-1.0
Team Elo Adj
-0.7
Value
Ptile
09/10
3.5
78
09/17
-0.6
47
09/24
5.0
84
10/01
-0.2
50
10/16
1.6
65
10/22
-3.1
31
11/05
-0.1
51
11/12
-0.6
47
11/16
-5.3
18
11/26
-3.0
31

Team Matchup Ranks

Texans Offense vs Titans Defense
Texans logo
Titans logo

Total

Points / Game
17
19
Yards / Game
20
15
Passing Yards / Game
12
29
Rushing Yards / Game
13
4

EPA

EPA / Play
21
23
EPA / Pass
25
23
EPA / Rush
12
2

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
10
13
Interceptions / Game
27
23
Fumbles / Game
28
17
Turnover EPA / Game
4
6

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
22
18
4th Down Efficiency
13
26
RZ Efficiency
20
17
Titans Offense vs Texans Defense
Titans logo
Texans logo

Total

Points / Game
20
32
Yards / Game
21
20
Passing Yards / Game
23
22
Rushing Yards / Game
9
12

EPA

EPA / Play
18
30
EPA / Pass
24
25
EPA / Rush
10
16

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
23
2
Interceptions / Game
26
18
Fumbles / Game
11
31
Turnover EPA / Game
7
10

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
22
5
4th Down Efficiency
8
27
RZ Efficiency
16
27

Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)

HOU logo

Texans

4-6
SU
7-3
ATS
6-4
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
09/14
4
W
W
U
09/24
-3
L
W
O
10/01
43
W
W
O
10/08
-8
L
L
O
10/15
16
W
W
O
10/29
-3
L
W
O
11/05
-6
L
L
U
11/12
-26
L
L
U
11/19
10
W
W
O
11/27
-7
L
W
U
TEN logo

Titans

7-3
SU
4-5-1
ATS
7-3
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
09/17
21
W
W
O
09/24
6
W
W
O
10/01
-43
L
L
O
10/08
-6
L
L
U
10/16
14
W
W
O
10/22
3
W
L
U
11/05
3
W
P
O
11/12
4
W
L
O
11/16
-23
L
L
O
11/26
4
W
W
U