HOUTexans
4-7
13
TBD
Nissan Stadium
60°F
4 mph
24
TENTitans
7-4
TBD
Nissan Stadium
60°F
4 mph
Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Texans
3
7
0
3
13
Titans
0
10
7
7
24
Spread
-7
Total
UNDER
42.5
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
384
344
Total Plays
75
50
Yards / Play
5.1
6.9
EPA / Play
+0.04
+0.24
Passing Yards
331
146
Comp/Att
31/49(63%)
15/23(65%)
Yards / Pass
6.8
6.3
EPA / Pass
+0.21
+0.06
Rushing Yards
53
198
Rush Attempts
22
25
Yards / Rush
2.4
7.9
EPA / Rush
-0.23
+0.40
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
24
19
Passing 1st downs
17
8
Rushing 1st downs
3
9
Penalty 1st downs
4
2
3rd Down %
50%
45%
3rd Down Conversions
8
5
3rd Down Attempts
16
11
Red Zone %
33%
100%
Red Zone Conversions
1
1
Red Zone Attempts
3
1
Negative Plays
Turnovers
2
0
Interceptions
1
0
Fumbles
1
0
Turnover EPA
-0.07
--
Sacks
4
2
Sack Yards
-34
-4
Sack EPA
-3.55
-2.92
Penalties
11
7
Penalty Yards
85
63
Penalty EPA
-8.82
+0.21
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
TENTitansFavored
Opening
-7.0
Current
-7.0
Model
-7.0
Win Probability
Market72.8%
Model72.8%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+159
Home nfelo
1,485
Away nfelo
1,436
Home Field
+50.0
Base HFA
+55.6
Divisional Adj
-25.1
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
+19.4
Time Adj
--
Net QB Adjustment
+60.2
Home QB Adjustment
-0.7
Away QB Adjustment
-60.9
Market Regression
--
Final Difference
171.0
Model Spread
-7.0
Quarterbacks
T. Savage
Proj. Value
-4.6
Team Elo Adj
-60.9
M. Mariota
Proj. Value
-1.3
Team Elo Adj
-0.7
Team Matchup Ranks
Texans Offense vs Titans Defense
Total
Points / Game
17
19
Yards / Game
20
15
Passing Yards / Game
12
29
Rushing Yards / Game
13
4
EPA
EPA / Play
21
23
EPA / Pass
25
23
EPA / Rush
12
2
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
10
13
Interceptions / Game
27
23
Fumbles / Game
28
17
Turnover EPA / Game
4
6
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
22
18
4th Down Efficiency
13
26
RZ Efficiency
20
17
Titans Offense vs Texans Defense
Total
Points / Game
20
32
Yards / Game
21
20
Passing Yards / Game
23
22
Rushing Yards / Game
9
12
EPA
EPA / Play
18
30
EPA / Pass
24
25
EPA / Rush
10
16
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
23
2
Interceptions / Game
26
18
Fumbles / Game
11
31
Turnover EPA / Game
7
10
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
22
5
4th Down Efficiency
8
27
RZ Efficiency
16
27
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Texans
4-6
SU
7-3
ATS
6-4
O/U
Titans
7-3
SU
4-5-1
ATS
7-3
O/U