HOUTexans
5-8
17
TBD
Nissan Stadium
36°F
4 mph
31
TENTitans
5-8
TBD
Nissan Stadium
36°F
4 mph
Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Texans
0
3
7
7
17
Titans
21
3
7
0
31
Spread
-1
Total
OVER
47.5
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
323
359
Total Plays
75
57
Yards / Play
4.3
6.3
EPA / Play
+0.03
+0.25
Passing Yards
293
212
Comp/Att
35/54(65%)
14/24(58%)
Yards / Pass
5.4
8.8
EPA / Pass
+0.08
+0.47
Rushing Yards
30
147
Rush Attempts
17
30
Yards / Rush
1.8
4.9
EPA / Rush
-0.45
-0.08
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
26
19
Passing 1st downs
20
12
Rushing 1st downs
4
6
Penalty 1st downs
2
1
3rd Down %
38%
27%
3rd Down Conversions
5
3
3rd Down Attempts
13
11
Red Zone %
67%
80%
Red Zone Conversions
2
4
Red Zone Attempts
3
5
Negative Plays
Turnovers
1
1
Interceptions
1
1
Fumbles
0
0
Turnover EPA
-3.07
-3.49
Sacks
4
3
Sack Yards
-32
-25
Sack EPA
-8.19
-3.14
Penalties
9
12
Penalty Yards
66
76
Penalty EPA
-5.56
-8.29
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
TENTitansFavored
Opening
N/A
Current
-1.0
Model
-1.0
Win Probability
Market52.2%
Model52.2%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+4
Home nfelo
1,490
Away nfelo
1,498
Home Field
+34.3
Base HFA
+62.5
Divisional Adj
-28.2
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
--
Time Adj
--
Net QB Adjustment
-22.7
Home QB Adjustment
-21.3
Away QB Adjustment
+1.4
Market Regression
+15.3
Final Difference
15.3
Model Spread
-1.0
Quarterbacks
M. Schaub
Proj. Value
-1.0
Team Elo Adj
+1.4
K. Collins
Proj. Value
-2.5
Team Elo Adj
-21.3
Team Matchup Ranks
Texans Offense vs Titans Defense
Total
Points / Game
11
15
Yards / Game
3
26
Passing Yards / Game
13
32
Rushing Yards / Game
7
20
EPA
EPA / Play
2
21
EPA / Pass
5
22
EPA / Rush
4
15
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
9
26
Interceptions / Game
7
11
Fumbles / Game
3
31
Turnover EPA / Game
29
14
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
9
29
4th Down Efficiency
14
7
RZ Efficiency
5
3
Titans Offense vs Texans Defense
Total
Points / Game
16
29
Yards / Game
28
29
Passing Yards / Game
29
30
Rushing Yards / Game
17
14
EPA
EPA / Play
14
32
EPA / Pass
16
32
EPA / Rush
28
27
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
23
21
Interceptions / Game
13
23
Fumbles / Game
28
32
Turnover EPA / Game
17
3
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
23
20
4th Down Efficiency
10
32
RZ Efficiency
10
31
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Texans
3-7
SU
3-7
ATS
7-3
O/U
Titans
3-7
SU
4-6
ATS
6-4
O/U