HOUTexans
7-6
19
TBD
Nissan Stadium
48°F
9 mph
16
TENTitans
5-8
TBD
Nissan Stadium
48°F
9 mph
Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
OT
Total
Texans
0
3
6
7
3
19
Titans
6
1
0
3
0
10
Spread
+3
Total
UNDER
38
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
340
204
Total Plays
72
63
Yards / Play
4.7
3.2
EPA / Play
-0.09
-0.20
Passing Yards
192
138
Comp/Att
23/36(64%)
17/26(65%)
Yards / Pass
5.3
5.3
EPA / Pass
-0.08
-0.22
Rushing Yards
148
66
Rush Attempts
32
30
Yards / Rush
4.6
2.2
EPA / Rush
-0.16
-0.19
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
21
14
Passing 1st downs
12
8
Rushing 1st downs
5
6
Penalty 1st downs
4
--
3rd Down %
27%
33%
3rd Down Conversions
4
5
3rd Down Attempts
15
15
Red Zone %
33%
50%
Red Zone Conversions
1
1
Red Zone Attempts
3
2
Negative Plays
Turnovers
1
1
Interceptions
1
1
Fumbles
0
0
Turnover EPA
-7.11
-3.67
Sacks
4
7
Sack Yards
-37
-61
Sack EPA
-4.50
-9.70
Penalties
8
5
Penalty Yards
--
--
Penalty EPA
--
--
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
TENTitansFavored
Opening
+3.5
Current
-3.0
Model
-3.0
Win Probability
Market59.3%
Model59.3%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+28
Home nfelo
1,454
Away nfelo
1,445
Home Field
+40.7
Base HFA
+45.3
Divisional Adj
-20.4
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
+15.8
Time Adj
--
Net QB Adjustment
-22.0
Home QB Adjustment
-33.3
Away QB Adjustment
-11.3
Market Regression
+92.3
Final Difference
65.4
Model Spread
-3.0
Quarterbacks
C. Keenum
Proj. Value
-1.8
Team Elo Adj
-11.3
W. Levis
Proj. Value
-4.2
Team Elo Adj
-33.3
Team Matchup Ranks
Texans Offense vs Titans Defense
Total
Points / Game
13
15
Yards / Game
15
17
Passing Yards / Game
21
19
Rushing Yards / Game
28
14
EPA
EPA / Play
14
28
EPA / Pass
11
30
EPA / Rush
27
5
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
24
4
Interceptions / Game
1
32
Fumbles / Game
13
13
Turnover EPA / Game
32
2
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
20
18
4th Down Efficiency
31
26
RZ Efficiency
16
1
Titans Offense vs Texans Defense
Total
Points / Game
27
11
Yards / Game
28
15
Passing Yards / Game
18
6
Rushing Yards / Game
18
8
EPA
EPA / Play
16
13
EPA / Pass
21
16
EPA / Rush
13
9
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
18
15
Interceptions / Game
10
15
Fumbles / Game
6
25
Turnover EPA / Game
29
13
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
28
6
4th Down Efficiency
11
18
RZ Efficiency
28
15
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Texans
6-4
SU
5-5
ATS
3-7
O/U
Titans
4-6
SU
4-6
ATS
4-6
O/U