HOUTexans
9-6
17
TBD
Nissan Stadium
52°F
7 mph
24
TENTitans
8-7
TBD
Nissan Stadium
52°F
7 mph
Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Texans
0
0
10
7
17
Titans
1
7
7
3
18
Spread
-3
Total
UNDER
41.5
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
289
236
Total Plays
74
59
Yards / Play
3.9
4.0
EPA / Play
-0.13
-0.07
Passing Yards
243
133
Comp/Att
26/48(54%)
16/26(62%)
Yards / Pass
5.1
5.1
EPA / Pass
-0.05
-0.09
Rushing Yards
46
103
Rush Attempts
22
29
Yards / Rush
2.1
3.6
EPA / Rush
-0.01
-0.14
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
20
16
Passing 1st downs
13
9
Rushing 1st downs
6
6
Penalty 1st downs
1
1
3rd Down %
20%
60%
3rd Down Conversions
3
9
3rd Down Attempts
15
15
Red Zone %
67%
67%
Red Zone Conversions
2
2
Red Zone Attempts
3
3
Negative Plays
Turnovers
1
1
Interceptions
0
1
Fumbles
1
0
Turnover EPA
-5.70
-5.35
Sacks
4
4
Sack Yards
-35
-17
Sack EPA
-10.63
-4.09
Penalties
6
7
Penalty Yards
35
50
Penalty EPA
-5.66
-7.57
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
TENTitansFavored
Opening
-3.0
Current
-3.0
Model
-2.0
Win Probability
Market59.3%
Model53.7%
Spread Pick
Texans+3.0
Expected Value
+6.4%
Cover Probability
51.8%
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
-10
Home nfelo
1,473
Away nfelo
1,455
Home Field
+51.5
Base HFA
+57.3
Divisional Adj
-25.9
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
+20.0
Time Adj
--
Net QB Adjustment
-79.5
Home QB Adjustment
-113.6
Away QB Adjustment
-34.2
Market Regression
--
Final Difference
25.7
Model Spread
-2.0
Quarterbacks
T. Savage
Proj. Value
-4.6
Team Elo Adj
-34.2
Value
Ptile
M. Cassel
Proj. Value
-3.1
Team Elo Adj
-113.6
Team Matchup Ranks
Texans Offense vs Titans Defense
Total
Points / Game
28
16
Yards / Game
29
20
Passing Yards / Game
28
24
Rushing Yards / Game
7
4
EPA
EPA / Play
31
20
EPA / Pass
29
23
EPA / Rush
26
10
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
9
25
Interceptions / Game
25
20
Fumbles / Game
10
30
Turnover EPA / Game
11
6
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
27
8
4th Down Efficiency
29
18
RZ Efficiency
31
7
Titans Offense vs Texans Defense
Total
Points / Game
14
12
Yards / Game
11
1
Passing Yards / Game
31
7
Rushing Yards / Game
3
11
EPA
EPA / Play
13
3
EPA / Pass
13
4
EPA / Rush
11
4
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
27
22
Interceptions / Game
12
13
Fumbles / Game
16
25
Turnover EPA / Game
17
17
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
4
7
4th Down Efficiency
30
3
RZ Efficiency
1
16
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Texans
6-4
SU
3-6-1
ATS
4-6
O/U
Titans
6-4
SU
4-6
ATS
7-3
O/U