TENTitans
1-6
34
TBD
Candlestick Park
63°F
5 mph
27
SF49ers
3-4
TBD
Candlestick Park
63°F
5 mph
Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Titans
3
7
7
11
28
49ers
3
14
0
10
27
Spread
+4.5
Total
OVER
41
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
315
358
Total Plays
55
69
Yards / Play
5.7
5.2
EPA / Play
+0.18
-0.02
Passing Yards
163
250
Comp/Att
12/20(60%)
29/45(64%)
Yards / Pass
8.2
5.6
EPA / Pass
+0.22
-0.29
Rushing Yards
152
108
Rush Attempts
34
20
Yards / Rush
4.5
5.4
EPA / Rush
+0.06
+0.27
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
14
25
Passing 1st downs
7
12
Rushing 1st downs
7
9
Penalty 1st downs
--
4
3rd Down %
33%
31%
3rd Down Conversions
4
4
3rd Down Attempts
12
13
Red Zone %
60%
60%
Red Zone Conversions
3
3
Red Zone Attempts
5
5
Negative Plays
Turnovers
0
4
Interceptions
0
3
Fumbles
0
1
Turnover EPA
--
-21.90
Sacks
1
4
Sack Yards
-9
-36
Sack EPA
-1.75
-9.55
Penalties
8
5
Penalty Yards
58
--
Penalty EPA
-9.18
--
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
SF49ersFavored
Opening
-5.5
Current
-4.5
Model
-4.0
Win Probability
Market66.1%
Model64.0%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+37
Home nfelo
1,530
Away nfelo
1,501
Home Field
+62.5
Base HFA
+62.5
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
--
Time Adj
--
Net QB Adjustment
-54.9
Home QB Adjustment
-56.8
Away QB Adjustment
-1.9
Market Regression
+13.7
Final Difference
99.8
Model Spread
-4.0
Quarterbacks
V. Young
Proj. Value
-0.9
Team Elo Adj
-1.9
A. Smith
Proj. Value
-2.3
Team Elo Adj
-56.8
Team Matchup Ranks
Titans Offense vs 49ers Defense
Total
Points / Game
15
4
Yards / Game
13
15
Passing Yards / Game
31
9
Rushing Yards / Game
2
6
EPA
EPA / Play
13
2
EPA / Pass
17
5
EPA / Rush
2
3
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
13
12
Interceptions / Game
14
10
Fumbles / Game
29
1
Turnover EPA / Game
22
23
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
12
10
4th Down Efficiency
12
4
RZ Efficiency
9
2
49ers Offense vs Titans Defense
Total
Points / Game
18
28
Yards / Game
27
27
Passing Yards / Game
18
25
Rushing Yards / Game
24
11
EPA
EPA / Play
23
27
EPA / Pass
21
26
EPA / Rush
20
22
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
30
32
Interceptions / Game
10
7
Fumbles / Game
6
28
Turnover EPA / Game
31
16
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
29
26
4th Down Efficiency
10
31
RZ Efficiency
6
27
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Titans
2-8
SU
3-7
ATS
4-3-3
O/U
49ers
5-5
SU
7-2-1
ATS
3-4-3
O/U