TENTitans
8-5
23
TBD
Levi's Stadium
65°F
17 mph
25
SF49ers
3-10
TBD
Levi's Stadium
65°F
17 mph
Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Titans
0
10
3
10
23
49ers
6
10
0
9
25
Spread
+2.5
Total
OVER
44.5
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
328
414
Total Plays
62
68
Yards / Play
5.3
6.1
EPA / Play
+0.19
+0.19
Passing Yards
238
363
Comp/Att
23/33(70%)
31/43(72%)
Yards / Pass
7.2
8.4
EPA / Pass
+0.27
+0.35
Rushing Yards
90
51
Rush Attempts
28
22
Yards / Rush
3.2
2.3
EPA / Rush
-0.08
-0.30
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
23
23
Passing 1st downs
14
20
Rushing 1st downs
7
2
Penalty 1st downs
2
1
3rd Down %
50%
50%
3rd Down Conversions
6
7
3rd Down Attempts
12
14
Red Zone %
67%
25%
Red Zone Conversions
2
1
Red Zone Attempts
3
4
Negative Plays
Turnovers
1
0
Interceptions
0
0
Fumbles
1
0
Turnover EPA
-4.42
--
Sacks
1
3
Sack Yards
-3
-18
Sack EPA
-1.19
-4.00
Penalties
3
7
Penalty Yards
22
70
Penalty EPA
-3.08
-7.04
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
SF49ersFavored
Opening
-2.0
Current
-2.5
Model
-2.5
Win Probability
Market56.1%
Model55.1%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+8
Home nfelo
1,402
Away nfelo
1,487
Home Field
+65.7
Base HFA
+55.7
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
--
Time Adj
+10.0
Net QB Adjustment
+27.5
Home QB Adjustment
+17.1
Away QB Adjustment
-10.4
Market Regression
+6.3
Final Difference
35.6
Model Spread
-2.5
Quarterbacks
M. Mariota
Proj. Value
-1.3
Team Elo Adj
-10.4
J. Garoppolo
Proj. Value
-0.8
Team Elo Adj
+17.1
Team Matchup Ranks
Titans Offense vs 49ers Defense
Total
Points / Game
20
25
Yards / Game
21
25
Passing Yards / Game
23
4
Rushing Yards / Game
9
22
EPA
EPA / Play
18
25
EPA / Pass
24
26
EPA / Rush
10
11
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
23
10
Interceptions / Game
26
25
Fumbles / Game
11
9
Turnover EPA / Game
7
15
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
22
30
4th Down Efficiency
8
32
RZ Efficiency
16
26
49ers Offense vs Titans Defense
Total
Points / Game
19
19
Yards / Game
12
15
Passing Yards / Game
11
29
Rushing Yards / Game
20
4
EPA
EPA / Play
16
23
EPA / Pass
17
23
EPA / Rush
9
2
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
6
13
Interceptions / Game
23
23
Fumbles / Game
13
17
Turnover EPA / Game
10
6
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
16
18
4th Down Efficiency
19
26
RZ Efficiency
28
17
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Titans
6-4
SU
3-6-1
ATS
5-5
O/U
49ers
3-7
SU
5-5
ATS
4-6
O/U