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  1. nfelo...
  2. predictions...
  3. titans @ 49ers week 15, 2017

Game Summary

Spread
Total

Model

Quarterbacks

Matchup

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TEN logo
TENTitans
8-5
23
TBD
Levi's Stadium
65°F
17 mph
25
SF49ers
3-10
SF logo
TBD
Levi's Stadium
65°F
17 mph

Game Summary

Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Titans
0
10
3
10
23
49ers
6
10
0
9
25

Spread

TEN logo
+2.5

Total

OVER
44.5

Game Statistics

General
Titans logo
49ers logo
Total Yards
328
414
Total Plays
62
68
Yards / Play
5.3
6.1
EPA / Play
+0.19
+0.19
Passing Yards
238
363
Comp/Att
23/33(70%)
31/43(72%)
Yards / Pass
7.2
8.4
EPA / Pass
+0.27
+0.35
Rushing Yards
90
51
Rush Attempts
28
22
Yards / Rush
3.2
2.3
EPA / Rush
-0.08
-0.30
Downs & Conversions
Titans logo
49ers logo
1st Downs
23
23
Passing 1st downs
14
20
Rushing 1st downs
7
2
Penalty 1st downs
2
1
3rd Down %
50%
50%
3rd Down Conversions
6
7
3rd Down Attempts
12
14
Red Zone %
67%
25%
Red Zone Conversions
2
1
Red Zone Attempts
3
4
Negative Plays
Titans logo
49ers logo
Turnovers
1
0
Interceptions
0
0
Fumbles
1
0
Turnover EPA
-4.42
--
Sacks
1
3
Sack Yards
-3
-18
Sack EPA
-1.19
-4.00
Penalties
3
7
Penalty Yards
22
70
Penalty EPA
-3.08
-7.04

Game Preview

nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game

Model

Projected Winner
SF logo
SF49ersFavored
Opening
-2.0
Current
-2.5
Model
-2.5

Win Probability

Market56.1%
Model55.0%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+5
Home nfelo
1,399
Away nfelo
1,488
Home Field
+66.5
Base HFA
+56.4
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
--
Time Adj
+10.1
Net QB Adjustment
+27.5
Home QB Adjustment
+17.1
Away QB Adjustment
-10.4
Market Regression
+5.6
Final Difference
34.9
Model Spread
-2.5

Quarterbacks

M. Mariota headshot

M. Mariota

Proj. Value
-1.0
Team Elo Adj
-10.4
Value
Ptile
09/24
5.0
84
10/01
-0.2
50
10/16
1.6
65
10/22
-3.1
31
11/05
-0.1
51
11/12
-0.6
47
11/16
-5.3
18
11/26
-3.0
31
12/03
0.8
58
12/10
-9.5
4
J. Garoppolo headshot

J. Garoppolo

Proj. Value
-1.0
Team Elo Adj
+17.1
Value
Ptile
09/11
2.6
69
09/18
5.6
85
12/03
-0.4
49
12/10
-1.1
44

Team Matchup Ranks

Titans Offense vs 49ers Defense
Titans logo
49ers logo

Total

Points / Game
20
25
Yards / Game
21
25
Passing Yards / Game
23
4
Rushing Yards / Game
9
22

EPA

EPA / Play
18
25
EPA / Pass
24
26
EPA / Rush
10
11

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
23
10
Interceptions / Game
26
25
Fumbles / Game
11
9
Turnover EPA / Game
7
15

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
22
30
4th Down Efficiency
8
32
RZ Efficiency
16
26
49ers Offense vs Titans Defense
49ers logo
Titans logo

Total

Points / Game
19
19
Yards / Game
12
15
Passing Yards / Game
11
29
Rushing Yards / Game
20
4

EPA

EPA / Play
16
23
EPA / Pass
17
23
EPA / Rush
9
2

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
6
13
Interceptions / Game
23
23
Fumbles / Game
13
17
Turnover EPA / Game
10
6

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
16
18
4th Down Efficiency
19
26
RZ Efficiency
28
17

Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)

TEN logo

Titans

6-4
SU
3-6-1
ATS
5-5
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
10/01
-43
L
L
O
10/08
-6
L
L
U
10/16
14
W
W
O
10/22
3
W
L
U
11/05
3
W
P
O
11/12
4
W
L
O
11/16
-23
L
L
O
11/26
4
W
W
U
12/03
11
W
W
U
12/10
-5
L
L
U
SF logo

49ers

3-7
SU
5-5
ATS
4-6
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
10/01
-3
L
W
U
10/08
-3
L
L
O
10/15
-2
L
W
O
10/22
-30
L
L
O
10/29
-23
L
L
U
11/05
-10
L
L
U
11/12
10
W
W
O
11/26
-11
L
L
U
12/03
1
W
W
U
12/10
10
W
W
U