TENTitans
0-1
7
TBD
New Era Field
70°F
041
BUFBills
1-0
TBD
New Era Field
70°F
0Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Titans
7
0
0
0
7
Bills
7
10
18
0
35
Spread
-10
Total
OVER
47.5
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
187
414
Total Plays
53
65
Yards / Play
3.5
6.4
EPA / Play
-0.39
+0.26
Passing Yards
107
313
Comp/Att
12/24(50%)
26/40(65%)
Yards / Pass
4.5
7.8
EPA / Pass
-0.56
+0.36
Rushing Yards
80
101
Rush Attempts
27
24
Yards / Rush
3.0
4.2
EPA / Rush
-0.25
-0.20
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
12
23
Passing 1st downs
6
13
Rushing 1st downs
5
6
Penalty 1st downs
1
4
3rd Down %
33%
38%
3rd Down Conversions
4
5
3rd Down Attempts
12
13
Red Zone %
100%
60%
Red Zone Conversions
1
3
Red Zone Attempts
1
5
Negative Plays
Turnovers
3
1
Interceptions
2
0
Fumbles
1
1
Turnover EPA
-17.42
+4.85
Sacks
2
1
Sack Yards
-16
-4
Sack EPA
-2.05
-1.29
Penalties
9
8
Penalty Yards
87
49
Penalty EPA
-7.38
-8.54
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
BUFBillsFavored
Opening
-10.0
Current
-10.0
Model
-10.0
Win Probability
Market79.5%
Model79.5%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+239
Home nfelo
1,669
Away nfelo
1,491
Home Field
+43.8
Base HFA
+37.4
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
+13.1
Time Adj
-6.7
Net QB Adjustment
+17.3
Home QB Adjustment
+15.8
Away QB Adjustment
-1.5
Market Regression
--
Final Difference
235.4
Model Spread
-10.0
Quarterbacks
R. Tannehill
Proj. Value
-2.2
Team Elo Adj
-1.5
J. Allen
Proj. Value
+5.1
Team Elo Adj
+15.8
Team Matchup Ranks
Titans Offense vs Bills Defense
Total
Points / Game
28
4
Yards / Game
30
7
Passing Yards / Game
24
25
Rushing Yards / Game
13
6
EPA
EPA / Play
25
6
EPA / Pass
23
12
EPA / Rush
26
7
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
14
17
Interceptions / Game
9
4
Fumbles / Game
11
13
Turnover EPA / Game
13
27
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
23
6
4th Down Efficiency
14
22
RZ Efficiency
6
2
Bills Offense vs Titans Defense
Total
Points / Game
3
12
Yards / Game
2
23
Passing Yards / Game
2
32
Rushing Yards / Game
8
1
EPA
EPA / Play
3
16
EPA / Pass
5
28
EPA / Rush
7
1
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
20
6
Interceptions / Game
26
13
Fumbles / Game
31
14
Turnover EPA / Game
2
9
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
1
3
4th Down Efficiency
16
32
RZ Efficiency
9
14
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Titans
5-5
SU
3-7
ATS
2-7-1
O/U
Bills
7-3
SU
6-3-1
ATS
5-5
O/U