TENTitans
2-4
35
TBD
New Era Field
55°F
15 mph
34
BUFBills
3-3
TBD
New Era Field
55°F
15 mph
Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Titans
14
7
7
7
35
Bills
14
6
14
0
34
Spread
+4.5
Total
OVER
47
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
390
382
Total Plays
62
60
Yards / Play
6.3
6.4
EPA / Play
+0.33
+0.27
Passing Yards
193
216
Comp/Att
22/33(67%)
27/35(77%)
Yards / Pass
5.8
6.2
EPA / Pass
+0.27
+0.17
Rushing Yards
197
166
Rush Attempts
27
24
Yards / Rush
7.3
6.9
EPA / Rush
+0.37
+0.16
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
21
22
Passing 1st downs
12
14
Rushing 1st downs
7
6
Penalty 1st downs
2
2
3rd Down %
64%
58%
3rd Down Conversions
9
7
3rd Down Attempts
14
12
Red Zone %
100%
67%
Red Zone Conversions
4
2
Red Zone Attempts
4
3
Negative Plays
Turnovers
0
2
Interceptions
0
1
Fumbles
0
1
Turnover EPA
--
-7.84
Sacks
2
1
Sack Yards
-12
-9
Sack EPA
-2.11
-5.53
Penalties
3
8
Penalty Yards
25
65
Penalty EPA
-2.67
-4.76
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
BUFBillsFavored
Opening
-3.0
Current
-4.5
Model
-6.0
Win Probability
Market66.1%
Model69.0%
Spread Pick
Bills-4.5
Expected Value
+0.9%
Cover Probability
52.9%
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+177
Home nfelo
1,478
Away nfelo
1,411
Home Field
+95.5
Base HFA
+62.5
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
+21.8
Time Adj
+11.2
Net QB Adjustment
+14.8
Home QB Adjustment
-1.5
Away QB Adjustment
-16.3
Market Regression
+12.7
Final Difference
139.2
Model Spread
-6.0
Quarterbacks
M. Hasselbeck
Proj. Value
-2.7
Team Elo Adj
-16.3
R. Fitzpatrick
Proj. Value
+0.4
Team Elo Adj
-1.5
Team Matchup Ranks
Titans Offense vs Bills Defense
Total
Points / Game
23
26
Yards / Game
26
21
Passing Yards / Game
25
7
Rushing Yards / Game
21
31
EPA
EPA / Play
28
28
EPA / Pass
28
15
EPA / Rush
23
32
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
23
23
Interceptions / Game
18
20
Fumbles / Game
23
20
Turnover EPA / Game
8
8
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
15
32
4th Down Efficiency
27
18
RZ Efficiency
22
31
Bills Offense vs Titans Defense
Total
Points / Game
21
32
Yards / Game
19
25
Passing Yards / Game
28
27
Rushing Yards / Game
6
23
EPA
EPA / Play
20
24
EPA / Pass
21
23
EPA / Rush
10
28
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
17
11
Interceptions / Game
22
5
Fumbles / Game
31
31
Turnover EPA / Game
5
20
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
13
22
4th Down Efficiency
7
9
RZ Efficiency
22
30
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Titans
4-6
SU
2-7-1
ATS
6-4
O/U
Bills
4-6
SU
4-6
ATS
7-3
O/U