TENTitans
6-5
23
TBD
New Era Field
57°F
18 mph
17
BUFBills
5-6
TBD
New Era Field
57°F
18 mph
Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Titans
10
7
3
3
23
Bills
7
3
0
7
17
Spread
+1
Total
UNDER
43.5
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
317
386
Total Plays
57
70
Yards / Play
5.6
5.5
EPA / Play
+0.17
+0.00
Passing Yards
130
282
Comp/Att
16/25(64%)
29/46(63%)
Yards / Pass
5.2
6.1
EPA / Pass
-0.09
+0.02
Rushing Yards
187
104
Rush Attempts
31
23
Yards / Rush
6.0
4.5
EPA / Rush
+0.28
-0.02
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
18
18
Passing 1st downs
6
12
Rushing 1st downs
12
6
Penalty 1st downs
--
--
3rd Down %
18%
44%
3rd Down Conversions
2
7
3rd Down Attempts
11
16
Red Zone %
33%
50%
Red Zone Conversions
1
1
Red Zone Attempts
3
2
Negative Plays
Turnovers
0
2
Interceptions
0
0
Fumbles
0
2
Turnover EPA
--
-6.61
Sacks
1
1
Sack Yards
-10
-6
Sack EPA
-2.04
-2.08
Penalties
3
2
Penalty Yards
--
15
Penalty EPA
--
-1.75
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
BUFBillsFavored
Opening
-1.5
Current
-1.0
Model
-2.5
Win Probability
Market52.2%
Model56.3%
Spread Pick
Bills-1.0
Expected Value
+5.0%
Cover Probability
54.5%
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+90
Home nfelo
1,467
Away nfelo
1,486
Home Field
+95.5
Base HFA
+62.5
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
+21.8
Time Adj
+11.2
Net QB Adjustment
+13.6
Home QB Adjustment
+9.6
Away QB Adjustment
-4.0
Market Regression
+7.6
Final Difference
43.7
Model Spread
-2.5
Quarterbacks
M. Hasselbeck
Proj. Value
-2.7
Team Elo Adj
-4.0
R. Fitzpatrick
Proj. Value
+0.4
Team Elo Adj
+9.6
Team Matchup Ranks
Titans Offense vs Bills Defense
Total
Points / Game
22
30
Yards / Game
17
25
Passing Yards / Game
11
1
Rushing Yards / Game
32
28
EPA
EPA / Play
16
26
EPA / Pass
16
21
EPA / Rush
28
31
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
2
32
Interceptions / Game
13
5
Fumbles / Game
12
12
Turnover EPA / Game
19
30
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
19
21
4th Down Efficiency
1
31
RZ Efficiency
5
32
Bills Offense vs Titans Defense
Total
Points / Game
13
8
Yards / Game
14
18
Passing Yards / Game
15
13
Rushing Yards / Game
14
22
EPA
EPA / Play
17
15
EPA / Pass
19
17
EPA / Rush
6
13
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
4
31
Interceptions / Game
31
24
Fumbles / Game
2
4
Turnover EPA / Game
10
14
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
28
23
4th Down Efficiency
16
12
RZ Efficiency
11
10
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Titans
6-4
SU
5-4-1
ATS
3-7
O/U
Bills
4-6
SU
4-5-1
ATS
7-3
O/U